Stormlover74 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Looks like we've been added into the yellow in the SPC outlook for tomorrow Yep and enhanced is getting quite close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Our met at the station just showed me the cape for tomorrow. He's getting excited and I'm on storm patrol. We like the morning chance with the warm front passage but the RPM goes bonkers with the evening potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Euro? The Euro drops an inch or more of rain on much of the area. Looks convective. I haven't looked any further into. Going out to enjoy this beautiful Saturday. If only the DP wasn't in the upper 60s it'd be a perfect day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 The RGEM has a ridiculous squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 18 z nam backed off big time. 1/2 to locally an inch of water. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 18z gfs is a washout from the city n&w. 1-1.5 inches of pure h20 the next 30 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 18z gfs is a washout from the city n&w. 1-1.5 inches of pure h20 the next 30 hrs. Hopefully we get a pretty nice soaking. The weather next week looks pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Hopefully we get a pretty nice soaking. The weather next week looks pretty nice. I have not received more than 1/2 inch of rain on my street in an event in 3 months. I suspect, the trend may still occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 5, 2016 Author Share Posted June 5, 2016 0z NAM has very little QPF for the city S and E and not really a big deal elsewhere. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 5, 2016 Author Share Posted June 5, 2016 HRRR also fairly dry though its 15 hr run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 0 GFS & 0 NAM are a huge hit with pure h2o Best runs all week! Shocked at the most recent GFS run. water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 HRRR also fairly dry though its 15 hr run garbage. Show nothing. what a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 RGEM crushes the whole area. 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 RGEM crushes the whole area. 1-3"Looking good. I just hope it clears out for the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Looking good. I just hope it clears out for the afternoonNot going to happen. Most of the rain falls after 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Not going to happen. Most of the rain falls after 18z.I'm saying for the svr wx threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Euro only 0.6-0.7" for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 New Day 1 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Looks like w/e rain we get will need to come from the afternoon action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 5, 2016 Author Share Posted June 5, 2016 Morning stuff is mostly done. Almost nothing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Morning stuff is mostly done. Almost nothing here. Once we get into the afternoon hours , UPTON and MT HOLLY think the radar should be lit up . 000 FXUS61 KOKX 051215 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 815 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure across the Great Lakes drifts into eastern Canada by Monday. A warm front moves through this afternoon, followed by a cold front tonight. Low pressure will remain over eastern Canada and the northeast Monday through Wednesday. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night through Friday. A warm front approaches next Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Digging trough behind ridge axis will provide increasing instability and deeper lift through the column. A warm front to the south will make progress north, and may move through the southwest portion of the area this afternoon. For the early morning, patchy fog and stratus can be expected, but fog should burn off as the morning progresses. Isentropic lift along with WAA should increase coverage of showers this morning. By late morning, weak instability aloft may be enough for some thunder. During the afternoon, favorable upper support, WAA, deep moisture with PW values approaching and exceeding 2 inches, and increased lift will allow for high coverage of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. Heavy downpours are possible, although noted a decrease in storm total precip with 00Z model suite. Small hail remains a concern in stronger storms. Best chance for gusty winds due to increasing mid level shear will occur across western zones per SPC outlook. This may occur late day and into the evening ahead of prefrontal trough, possible triple point low. High resolution models prog a line, or broke Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 734 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front is expected to push through our region late today. A second cold front will slide through late Tuesday. High pressure will then build southeastward toward the Mid Atlantic region through the remainder of the work week before a warm front approaches our region for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... quick update to the weather grids this morning to increase pops through 9 AM to account for mainly light showers now moving north through new jersey. these showers are associated with the warm front moving north, with dewpoints into the low 70s to the south and in the 60s to the north. ...prev discussion below... A warm front was moving nwd acrs the region this mrng and some rain accompanied the front. Mdl guid has been reasonably consistent that the sern portions of the area would be genly dry thru the mrng hours, and psbly later. Latest radar showed a decent swath of precip acrs MD and VA movg ewd and weakening. The HRRR does want to bring some of this into the Delmarva and ern PA/srn NJ in the next few hours but that would be it for the mrng precip in these areas. Then all eyes turn to the approach of a cdfnt later this aftn into this eve. As has been the case for the last few days, there still exists the potential for severe wx. CAPE is moderate, but there is good unidirectional shear, but lapse rates are weak. Gusty wind and heavy rain appear to be the main threats, but the front should be progressive enough to preclude any widespread flooding issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 5, 2016 Author Share Posted June 5, 2016 Yep and they say PWATS over 2 inches-that's some juicy air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I can see the island comming out of this with .1 or something like this. We are in a solid marine layer here. Our hope was with the warm front. Witch failed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Overcast here Looking forward to some storms later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 All depends on when and how long we clear out for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Hope LI doesn't miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 5, 2016 Author Share Posted June 5, 2016 I can see the island comming out of this with .1 or something like this. We are in a solid marine layer here. Our hope was with the warm front. Witch failed some of yesterday's runs had that. .10 or so from the city S and E. and so does today's 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Storms forming down in middlesex county should move northeast into NYC as the HRRR has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 11z HRRR Exp brings the line in around 23z but breaks in up as it gets closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.