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Sunday 6/5 warm front and triple point low


Brian5671

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The area tends to do very well severe wise with morning warm frontal passages. 

 

The afternoon threat will depend on if the warm front can clear the area and initiate destabilization. The 06z NAM brings in 1000-2000 J/KG of SBCAPE by Sunday afternoon.

 

On a hunch, the afternoon threat stays mainly to our southwest and hammers Philly and the Jersey shore. 

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The area tends to do very well severe wise with morning warm frontal passages.

The afternoon threat will depend on if the warm front can clear the area and initiate destabilization. The 06z NAM brings in 1000-2000 J/KG of SBCAPE by Sunday afternoon.

On a hunch, the afternoon threat stays mainly to our southwest and hammers Philly and the Jersey shore.

I agree our best chance up here is with the warm front
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probably going to come down to a nowcast type situation, not unlike what we just saw this past Monday.  Models were awful with that event having it rain most of the day and having Tstorms in the PM-rain was done by 7am for most and the day ended up dry from that point on.

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The 12z NAM is spitting out 0-3km helicity of 100-200 in the morning and then 200-400 during the afternoon along with around 1250 J/KG of SBCAPE. Would like to see more CAPE but that should be sufficient for some Supercells if we can clear out some.

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probably going to come down to a nowcast type situation, not unlike what we just saw this past Monday.  Models were awful with that event having it rain most of the day and having Tstorms in the PM-rain was done by 7am for most and the day ended up dry from that point on.

Sunday is not a complete washout. Heavy rain early in the morning with the warm front. Then some clearing. Sun may even come out. Then the cold front arrives late in the afternoon. If the warm front gets hung up then it might rain longer, but that's usually not the case with convection this time of year.

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Mt Holly NWS is very ominous on Sunday I 95 N&W

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/..
A trough will become established over the northeast US over the
weekend, with a strong cold frontal passage late Sunday night.

The primary concern is the potential for severe weather and heavy
rainfall Sunday into early Sunday night. As an anomalous mid-level
trough amplifies over the Great Lakes, it will become negatively
tilted on Sunday and perhaps even close off somewhat, with a
deepening surface low over Lake Michigan. This leads a 100 knot
upper jet over the Ohio Valley, which will drive an increasingly
strong southwest tropospheric flow over our area, transporting warm
and moist air northward. The synoptic setup is favorable for severe
weather, and SPC has been advertising this, with the region placed
within a slight to enhanced risk. Bulk shear and CAPE approach 40
knots and 1 kJ, respectively. However, with ample moisture,
instability will be limited.

At this time, the greatest threat appears to be strong, damaging
winds, with a QLCS possible. Precipitable Water values near 2.00
inches will support localized heavy rainfall, particularly Sunday
morning northwest of I-95 with the warm frontal passage, and again
Sunday afternoon as storms organize. While large hail potential
seems limited, some of the models advertise a meso low developing
over central PA, which could favor some rotation if enhanced 0-1 km
shear develops. However, damaging winds appear to be the primary
threat, with localized heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor
drainage flooding. This is reflected in our HWO and gridded
forecast.

The cold frontal passage Sunday night will set the stage for near
normal temperatures and lower humidity into the early and middle
part of next week. The best chance of precip during the Monday
thru Friday time frame is centered on Tuesday and Tuesday night,
with another cold front. It remains to be seen whether tropical
moisture will be drawn up the coast along this front, resulting in
the potential for some heavier rainfall, which will bear watching.

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On a hunch, the afternoon threat stays mainly to our southwest and hammers Philly and the Jersey shore. 

 

With it's origins out in Central PA near the Harrisburg/York/Lancaster areas. This is the usual scenario in these kinds of events, The best activity almost always seems to ride on or near the east/west PA Turnpike.

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Higher res models have been hinting at a meso low developing and crossing the area which would locally increase low level shear. Instability however drops off to near zero east of the Hudson. Non event IMO unless you're in PA/NJ or Rockland/Orange.

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Higher res models have been hinting at a meso low developing and crossing the area which would locally increase low level shear. Instability however drops off to near zero east of the Hudson. Non event IMO unless you're in PA/NJ or Rockland/Orange.

Tend to agree east of the GSP.  Heavy rain threat in the morning, then a break and then maybe another line of storms in the PM

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