Brian5671 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Time for a thread. Models showing the potential for some heavy rains with the approach of a warm front and then possibly severe storms later in the day especially S and W of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 The area tends to do very well severe wise with morning warm frontal passages. The afternoon threat will depend on if the warm front can clear the area and initiate destabilization. The 06z NAM brings in 1000-2000 J/KG of SBCAPE by Sunday afternoon. On a hunch, the afternoon threat stays mainly to our southwest and hammers Philly and the Jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 The area tends to do very well severe wise with morning warm frontal passages. The afternoon threat will depend on if the warm front can clear the area and initiate destabilization. The 06z NAM brings in 1000-2000 J/KG of SBCAPE by Sunday afternoon. On a hunch, the afternoon threat stays mainly to our southwest and hammers Philly and the Jersey shore. I agree our best chance up here is with the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 We probably have a lower risk of severe but a relatively higher TOR risk up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Congrats south jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Congrats south jersey Always. I'm hoping for some heavy rain and thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 3, 2016 Author Share Posted June 3, 2016 The NAM unloads N and W of the city with inches of rain. It's the nam and the jackpot is NW so must be wrong! - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Congrats south jersey Maybe not. Looks like congrats Western areas. If you follow the seasonal trend, this all ends up about 50-75 miles further southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 The NAM unloads N and W of the city with inches of rain. It's the nam and the jackpot is NW so must be wrong! - It all comes down to how far Northeast the warm front can make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 3, 2016 Author Share Posted June 3, 2016 probably going to come down to a nowcast type situation, not unlike what we just saw this past Monday. Models were awful with that event having it rain most of the day and having Tstorms in the PM-rain was done by 7am for most and the day ended up dry from that point on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 The 12z NAM is spitting out 0-3km helicity of 100-200 in the morning and then 200-400 during the afternoon along with around 1250 J/KG of SBCAPE. Would like to see more CAPE but that should be sufficient for some Supercells if we can clear out some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 probably going to come down to a nowcast type situation, not unlike what we just saw this past Monday. Models were awful with that event having it rain most of the day and having Tstorms in the PM-rain was done by 7am for most and the day ended up dry from that point on. Sunday is not a complete washout. Heavy rain early in the morning with the warm front. Then some clearing. Sun may even come out. Then the cold front arrives late in the afternoon. If the warm front gets hung up then it might rain longer, but that's usually not the case with convection this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 The NAM unloads N and W of the city with inches of rain. It's the nam and the jackpot is NW so must be wrong! - Im sure you'll figure out a way to steal my precipitation yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 A little model porn to spice up your Friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Wow that's a wicked squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Mt Holly NWS is very ominous on Sunday I 95 N&W .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/..A trough will become established over the northeast US over theweekend, with a strong cold frontal passage late Sunday night.The primary concern is the potential for severe weather and heavyrainfall Sunday into early Sunday night. As an anomalous mid-leveltrough amplifies over the Great Lakes, it will become negativelytilted on Sunday and perhaps even close off somewhat, with adeepening surface low over Lake Michigan. This leads a 100 knotupper jet over the Ohio Valley, which will drive an increasinglystrong southwest tropospheric flow over our area, transporting warmand moist air northward. The synoptic setup is favorable for severeweather, and SPC has been advertising this, with the region placedwithin a slight to enhanced risk. Bulk shear and CAPE approach 40knots and 1 kJ, respectively. However, with ample moisture,instability will be limited.At this time, the greatest threat appears to be strong, damagingwinds, with a QLCS possible. Precipitable Water values near 2.00inches will support localized heavy rainfall, particularly Sundaymorning northwest of I-95 with the warm frontal passage, and againSunday afternoon as storms organize. While large hail potentialseems limited, some of the models advertise a meso low developingover central PA, which could favor some rotation if enhanced 0-1 kmshear develops. However, damaging winds appear to be the primarythreat, with localized heavy rainfall leading to urban and poordrainage flooding. This is reflected in our HWO and griddedforecast.The cold frontal passage Sunday night will set the stage for nearnormal temperatures and lower humidity into the early and middlepart of next week. The best chance of precip during the Mondaythru Friday time frame is centered on Tuesday and Tuesday night,with another cold front. It remains to be seen whether tropicalmoisture will be drawn up the coast along this front, resulting inthe potential for some heavier rainfall, which will bear watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Not having the RGEM on board is admittedly worrisome although it's still out almost out of range. It's about six hours too slow with the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 On a hunch, the afternoon threat stays mainly to our southwest and hammers Philly and the Jersey shore. With it's origins out in Central PA near the Harrisburg/York/Lancaster areas. This is the usual scenario in these kinds of events, The best activity almost always seems to ride on or near the east/west PA Turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Looking like a mostly non SVR thunderstorm event for NYC and LI. Hopefully some elevated convection makes it somewhat interesting. Warm front hardly makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Congrats south jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 I honestly think we'll get lucky with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Higher res models have been hinting at a meso low developing and crossing the area which would locally increase low level shear. Instability however drops off to near zero east of the Hudson. Non event IMO unless you're in PA/NJ or Rockland/Orange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 Higher res models have been hinting at a meso low developing and crossing the area which would locally increase low level shear. Instability however drops off to near zero east of the Hudson. Non event IMO unless you're in PA/NJ or Rockland/Orange. Tend to agree east of the GSP. Heavy rain threat in the morning, then a break and then maybe another line of storms in the PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Tend to agree east of the GSP. Heavy rain threat in the morning, then a break and then maybe another line of storms in the PM Well the 12z NAM looks like nearly a complete washout north and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 Well the 12z NAM looks like nearly a complete washout north and west of the city. it's had a N and W QPF jackpot for the last 6 runs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 it's had a N and W QPF jackpot for the last 6 runs or so. Well the 12z NAM looks like nearly a complete washout north and west of the city. Looks to be around 1-1.5 inches of water. Biggest event in months if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Looks like we've been added into the yellow in the SPC outlook for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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