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NNE Summer 2016


MaineJayhawk

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2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Actually guidelines do call for grassy surface under the temp sensor. Even our RSOIS equipment for upper air, which is technically anchored to the pavement, has the thermometer extending off the pole to the west so it's over grass.

I have just learned that this mulch at CON (and apparently it's not the only station this has happened at, but we don't know which others) was a NWS HQ project and not even the airport. :facepalm:

Ocean, good info.  I'm grasping for straws here but I would think as the season goes forward and the sun angle decreases temperature disparities between the surface and several feet above become less.  Less solar radiation right on the surface.  Also I would guess the average wind spread increases.  So perhaps less of a daytime variation.  Night radiation might be different.  Wouldn't dew form on grass faster than bark mulch which would absorb moisture?  These are all very small variables but I guess could change readings a degree or two.  Of course the simple solution is to just remove the bark much and seed the area with grass.

51F up here on the hill this morning.  Lawn has greened up nice with the rain and cooler weather.  It's great to be able to now just mow my pond bed.  Wonder when we will have enough rain to actually produce runoff.  Would have to saturate the top soil layer first.  

Watching the invest that is heading toward the Bahamas.  Could get intesting for someone if it develops.

 

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11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It looks like CON was "upgraded" around 7/10 based on the MADIS info. Our techs say it occurred between 7/13-15, so everything makes sense here on this plot. About a 1 degree warm shift to my eye.

 

 

21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Fun fact: same contractor that did CON also handled BGR...

 

That's bizarre. I would have been suspicious of mulching at BGR too given that info, but the BGR sensor changes look way too abrupt to be from mulch...like a clean break in the data to 3F warm bias and then a clean break back to normal. The CON data definitely looks more like mulch or something exterior to the sensor given how it's a bit choppy and not abrupt.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's bizarre. I would have been suspicious of mulching at BGR too given that info, but the BGR sensor changes look way too abrupt to be from mulch...like a clean break in the data to 3F warm bias and then a clean break back to normal. The CON data definitely looks more like mulch or something exterior to the sensor given how it's a bit choppy and not abrupt.

BGR is definitely abrupt. They said AFN and MHT also used the same contractor. MHT doesn't show much difference, but it is also sited near a lot of black top to begin with.

AFN though does look like it's been drifting a little bit lately.

wxsitequal (1).gif

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

BGR is definitely abrupt. They said AFN and MHT also used the same contractor. MHT doesn't show much difference, but it is also sited near a lot of black top to begin with.

AFN though does look like it's been drifting a little bit lately.

wxsitequal (1).gif

 

Yeah I agree on AFN...that is looking a bit ugly. I wonder if that guy did BDL at one point...when BDL drifted it started like that. It has since gone back to normal (which is a bit of a warm bias on MADIS since BDL is typically warmer than surrounding spots anyway), but for most of 2014 and the first half of 2015 it was off. I remember joking how impressive the Feb 2015 monthly record was at BDL given that they achieved it with a 1-2F warm bias thermometer.

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76.6/46.3 today. Awesome day.

83/46 for CON, but only 79 at MHT and probably 81 for ASH. Not sure if the rocks made a difference.

Maybe Chris is right and it's the dry soils finally playing an impact. I just don't see why they would see a jump and not MHT and ASH. CON ran cooler than them before the wet decade began in the early/mid 2000s as well.

As for MHT, I'd like to see their lows with the ASOS situated well away from the pavement. It's not like the airport is downtown as the ASOS is technically in Londonderry. They're a few miles from South Willow St and CON is situated right between Loudon Rd, Manchester St, and 106. I think the old station at Grenier Field radiated quite a bit better, but Manchvegas has grown quite a bit since the 60s.

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Minimum temps this morning... 4 reports of 39F in VT, including one in Rutland County which is pretty impressive for August 23rd.

Looks like the bulk were in that 43-48F range, which isn't that uncommon though.  What stands out to me, is the Lake Champlain basin... despite the air mass and good radiational conditions, lake temps are in the 70s so there's a slew of 55-60F lows surrounding the lake.  Those are the spots that need to wait till like mid-November for a hard freeze, lol.

min_temp.png

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Just noticed BTV with a low of 72F... I'm going to do some checking but they have to be near the top of New England's list for overnights this summer where the temp has failed to hit 69F.  The problem will be finding out if it dropped under 70F prior to midnight the following night.

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36 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just noticed BTV with a low of 72F... I'm going to do some checking but they have to be near the top of New England's list for overnights this summer where the temp has failed to hit 69F.  The problem will be finding out if it dropped under 70F prior to midnight the following night.

Use mesowest and calculate the 24hr numbers valid at 18z. That'll give you most ofthe overnight mins. 

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/past_dyn.cgi?stn=KBTV&hour1=18&day1=25&month1=8&year1=2016&product=&time=GMT&unit=0&order=1

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Getting a few sprinkles right now.

 Was just looking at the 12Z Euro  (PF your suggestion about me subscribing to WBell was the best idea, love it). Boy is it dry for the next 10 days.  Again its worse as you go south and SNE really gets negligible  rain for the next 10 days.  For us up here we have scattered shower/storm chances in the next 24 hours and again around Monday.  Euro backed off somewhat  on its hurricane idea for Florida/Gulf but for us anything that develops down there is wide right beneath us.

Rainwise I have done a bit better this month.  2.82" so at least the grass has temporarily turned a bit more green.  My apple trees which are usually loaded with apples have a much smaller crop this year.  

 

 

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4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Getting a few sprinkles right now.

 Was just looking at the 12Z Euro  (PF your suggestion about me subscribing to WBell was the best idea, love it). Boy is it dry for the next 10 days.  Again its worse as you go south and SNE really gets negligible  rain for the next 10 days.  For us up here we have scattered shower/storm chances in the next 24 hours and again around Monday.  Euro backed off somewhat  on its hurricane idea for Florida/Gulf but for us anything that develops down there is wide right beneath us.

Rainwise I have done a bit better this month.  2.82" so at least the grass has temporarily turned a bit more green.  My apple trees which are usually loaded with apples have a much smaller crop this year.  

 

 

My pears and apples have been terrible. I think the buds took a hit with that early April cold.

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18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Use mesowest and calculate the 24hr numbers valid at 18z. That'll give you most ofthe overnight mins. 

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/past_dyn.cgi?stn=KBTV&hour1=18&day1=25&month1=8&year1=2016&product=&time=GMT&unit=0&order=1

Holy crap that's useful...thanks for the link, didn't know about that one.  Will run it when I get home.

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45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Holy crap that's useful...thanks for the link, didn't know about that one.  Will run it when I get home.

It works well during the warm season with the diurnal swings. I use that page every night when calculating my own COOP 24hr extremes at 5z like my station and ASOS. I just throw the numbers into excel...it's pretty quick.

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3 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

The CON  90F+ highs and BTV 70F+ lows are too funny.  If we could just combine them into 1 site it would be a NNE DIT and EEK dreamland.

81/58 high/low here.  Had some decent showers move through the past hour-- .14"

 

I wish I did live at BTV.  Warmer nights, safer from backdoors, more frequent thunderstorms, later sunsets.... what's not to like?

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Wow, it's pouring out.  The radar suggests it's going to continue raining hard for another hour or so.

Which brings me to the NWS Point & Click forecast and several questions:  First, here's the current P&C for my neck of the woods in Orwell:

Showers likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 86. Light and variable wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Now I get that precip amounts could be higher in thunderstorms, and a P&C usually captures that possibility with a caveat after the forecast precipitation totals.  But this morning, there is already 0.62 inches in the gauge, and the radar suggests another quarter inch is quite likely.  Quite a big difference from the forecast precipitation totals in the P&C (and the AFD, for that matter).

Thus, my first question: what happens to get such a disconnect between the P&C and the actual weather?  This summer, in my neck of the woods, the disconnect has been weighted toward precipitation totals that have come in much less than forecast, so much so that I've taken to lowering my expected total by half.  For instance, if the P&C calls for 0.25-0.50 rain in the afternoon, followed by 0.50-0.75 rain in the evening, the low end would be a total of 0.75 inches, which means that I expect to get only about 0.35-0.40 inches.  This morning offers the rare case of weather that over-performs when compared with the P&C.

Second question: is anyone else experiencing this, with fairly consistent under/over performance?  Maybe this is a My Backyard Situation only and nobody else is seeing this pattern.

Third question: Is there a way to see archived P&Cs? For instance, I'm pretty sure yesterday's P&C called for 50% showers in the afternoon (it cleared out with nothing remotely nearby), and 10% showers overnight (it was cloudy, with any rain on the radar well to the south), but I'd rather not rely on my memory if I'm going to be critical of the P&C.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Kind of another screwgie here. 0.06" so far.

Thought radar looked pretty decent for you NH guys, guess just missed your place.

ended up close to .50" here.

 

Off topic--I was in the grocery store last night and heard some people talking about the rain yesterday saying how we "really needed the rain" and "how brown things were getting".  Im not sure what planet they are living on or what they are looking at on daily basis. I guess 15"+ of rain since 6/1 is not enough for some people.

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