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NNE Summer 2016


MaineJayhawk

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8 hours ago, alex said:

My well is 500ft so it sounds like it should be good for a while. We did get good rains until a couple of weeks ago, but it's been really dry since then. I do have wetlands and river frontage, but I've been told that surface water has nothing to do with wells so I was curious. Thank you for the info!

if you haven't run out this year, then you probably never will. it's funny, i haven't heard about many wells drying out this year. i expected more

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1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

I see my point n click % rain has dropped tomorrow and Sunday. Ridiculous.

Personally I thought going anything higher than likely (75+%) was too high for Saturday and Sunday, but that wasn't in my forecast period so I couldn't really step on any toes. I'm not surprised it went down overnight though. The models have been showing a better signal for QPF in the northern part of the forecast area, not the south.

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23 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Personally I thought going anything higher than likely (75+%) was too high for Saturday and Sunday, but that wasn't in my forecast period so I couldn't really step on any toes. I'm not surprised it went down overnight though. The models have been showing a better signal for QPF in the northern part of the forecast area, not the south.

The County is getting a nice drink this a.m. When is our turn? It's always either north, mtns or SNE.

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Had a nice time watching the Persieds last night.  Sat outside for about 30 minutes around midnight.  The air was very comfortable, the visibility was pretty good with just a couple of small clouds, and we got to see about 10-15 meteors.

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Could today be the day that we finally start putting an end to our drought?   Lots of rain/storm chances coming up.  Over the next couple of days and perhaps mid next week.  I don't see how anyone is going to miss at least some rain.  So much deep moisture in the atmosphere with repetitively slow movers flash flood potential.  My fields are so bone dry to a deep depth that there will be lots of runoff with heavy rain.  Fun times to watch.

78/71F  at 845am.  Oppressive day ahead.

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Yesterday's morning and afternoon forecasts had chances of rain by 8 am, and then chances of shows and thunderstorms (60%) throughout the day.  This morning's forecast holds the rain off until the afternoon.  Looking at the radar, the progression of the front from the north to the south seems quite slow to the point where I wonder if this afternoon's rain doesn't materialize. This reminds me of the setup from two weeks ago when rain was to move in from the south yet didn't do so for close to 36 hrs after the first forecasts called for rain to begin.  We ended up with half the predicted precipitation.  Are any of the models (including individual runs) suggesting that the rain stays north of the Route 2 line across Vermont?

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2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Personally I thought going anything higher than likely (75+%) was too high for Saturday and Sunday, but that wasn't in my forecast period so I couldn't really step on any toes. I'm not surprised it went down overnight though. The models have been showing a better signal for QPF in the northern part of the forecast area, not the south.

06z gfs now has my area with about 1.25" for the 8-day.  Of course, about half of that is next Wednesday, when I'll be in the woods all day near Moosehead.

Made it to 88 yesterday, warmest in 2 years and tied for the warmest in August since 2007.

About wells:  Ours is a dug well over a spring, and doesn't vary all that much.  At peak, there's 5 ft of water, about 500 gallons in the tubs, and I've never measured the recharge rate but guess it's impressive.  Lowest it's been was 3 ft in 2002, my driest year here (34.44", 15.4" BN) and my driest August.  This past Saturday there was 3.75 ft, so we're in good shape unless the dry wx continues into fall.

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Noon   86/72F   Watching the convection.  Most everything in the short term looks north  of the Whites.  Some stuff starting to pop in NYS.  

Question for the mets, Ocean, Brian, PF.  GFS was updated to higher resolution earlier this year.  Now looking at qpf it takes into account terrain and smaller features, Of course it never gets it right but makes it much harder to read.  Would rather get a broad brush to approx qpf  (like NAM) instead of trying to look at the new maps.  Here is the 12ZGFS  60 hour cumulative qpf. Almost impossible to read.  It does give rain in various amounts to everyone.

Untitled.jpg

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6 minutes ago, tamarack said:
Not as frustrating as 11" of snow while LEW/AUG get 24-26 (Feb. 2013) or 15" from Boxing Day 2010 and Jan 12, 2011 while AUG totals 30.  Or the faux blizzard of mid-Feb last year.
 

 


Feb 2013 was 28". :), But we seemed to have used up all our luck back then

 

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30 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

** Shield deactivated **

 

Might get sloppy seconds here in North Windham, but looking promising upstream.  

That was a good one here, Won't know how much we received until i get home and check the gauge but i'm guessing 0.50-0.75" possibly more

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That was a good one here, Won't know how much we received until i get home and check the gauge but i'm guessing 0.50-0.75" possibly more

Only got clipped here.  I stepped outside when it was raining, and it felt like tropical rains.  Fat warm drops.  Some decent wind too.  Looking to the cells in NH

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4 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Only got clipped here.  I stepped outside when it was raining, and it felt like tropical rains.  Fat warm drops.  Some decent wind too.  Looking to the cells in NH

You look to be inline for those but looks like i will miss them to the south

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