powderfreak Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 1 hour ago, tamarack said: Given the past 3 weeks, when about 8 different heavy rain potentials have combined to provide less than 1/4" total precip, I'll be no more than mildly interested until it's well within 100 hours - maybe not until it's within 24 hours. Getting gun-shy... Edit: Carrabassett is at all time low flow for the date. Sandy is 4 cfs above the record set in 1965, the driest year on record for much of the Northeast. However, 8/9/65 saw a significant rain event, so I expect 2016 to be setting the pace for the Sandy later this week. It's like how it's going to be this winter..."gun-shy", haha. None of us NNE posters will believe it until it's actually snowing. I'm sure we will annoy some of the SNE crowd with our weariness, but you know no one up here is going to be amped up until they finally have that 7" on the ground verifying a Winter Storm Warning haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Positive news on the drought relief for all of us who have missed most of the summer convection so far? The 12Z 8/8/16 Euro sure looks good for all of New England late week through next Tuesday. We mostly miss the Wed stuff which looks to be a SNE deal. Then a front to the north and low pressure coming up from the SW could give us a healthy dose of rain. Euro shows a region wide 2.5 to 5" rainfall by the time it all ends next Tuesday. One way or another we should all get much needed rain out of this setup. Don't see how we get through the next 7 days without at least some meaningful rain. I'm not buying any models four days out or one day for that matter. Getting hosed lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 12 hours ago, Lava Rock said: I'm not buying any models four days out or one day for that matter. Getting hosed lately But the hose is turned off... Surprise shower yesterday, another 0.01". July 19 thru now, I've had 7 days with measurable precip, amounting to a grand total of 0.24"; might've been a bit useful if it had all come at once. Sandy is now at record low flow along with the Carrabassett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 I still am bullish on drought denting rain in the Friday to Tuesday time period. Hope tomorrows MCS can come north or afternoon storms can form then a bit of a break before the tropics arrive. Wow is it going to get humid. Love to see a day of dews in the mid 70's. I remember when I chased Hurricane Katrina and was down on the Gulf Shore the day before the dewpoint was in the upper 70's. Coupled that with the temps around 90F the heat was unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 I'll wait another day 24-36 hrs to get interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: I still am bullish on drought denting rain in the Friday to Tuesday time period. Hope tomorrows MCS can come north or afternoon storms can form then a bit of a break before the tropics arrive. Wow is it going to get humid. Love to see a day of dews in the mid 70's. I remember when I chased Hurricane Katrina and was down on the Gulf Shore the day before the dewpoint was in the upper 70's. Coupled that with the temps around 90F the heat was unbearable. Don't do it to yourself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 12z GFS wants no part of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS wants no part of it Congrats ALB. Its going to switch around a lot like convective stuff does. We've all got a chance at some good rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Congrats ALB. Its going to switch around a lot like convective stuff does. We've all got a chance at some good rains. Its been bullish on those areas for several runs but looks pretty much on its own from the few model runs i have actually looked at, It will probably end up being right as it pretty much whiffs here like most of the convection has all summer........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 That map could've been copied from the one almost 2 weeks ago, the system that dowsed ALB while I got the usual 0.03". It even includes the Jackman to Baxter plume, just like the earlier one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Was just running some precipitation data for the summer so far... and the normal sharp precipitation gradient is very evident. I know I post about it a lot, but its still crazy to me how locally different the weather can be in this town. But I guess this is how it looks all the time when one part of town averages 75-80" of liquid a year and another part of town averages 50". I'd be curious to see what other towns around New England have such consistently different weather...I'd assume there's some towns in the MWN region that might see a 25" annual precipitation difference all within the same zip code? June 1 - August 9 Precipitation: Base of the resort near the office is 15.22" and the summit is 15.88". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 The GFS says we backdoor beginning Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 those maps are such a tease. I'll be expecting high clouds in the a.m. , followed by one dark ominous cloud around lunch, then mostly sunny by afternoon. Everyone will be saying "what rain?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 12z Euro jumped south to the 12z GFS, Can't rely on where modeled qpf is when its convective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 3 hours ago, dendrite said: The GFS says we backdoor beginning Saturday. Looks like 4 days of miserable nothings bringing less than 1/2" rain, similar to July 7-10 but with dews about 15 degrees higher, so the mildew grows better. Not sure I can stand the excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 Today we rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 Missing the best cells already. Any is appreciated I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Missing the best cells already. Any is appreciated I guess. I have you down for .13" Expecting .20" here thanks to that incoming orange pixel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: I have you down for .13" Expecting .20" here thanks to that incoming orange pixel We had .5" here from the first batch that's come through. Only rn- since, but the heavier stuff is on the doorstep again. With what I believe was well over 2" in the last two weeks and the likelihood of a bit more in the next few days we will have managed to at least but a short-term dent in things. Since we're quickly moving onto fall, the lawns won't have to suffer too much from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 30 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: I have you down for .13" Expecting .20" here thanks to that incoming orange pixel What a fail. lololol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 Just now, dendrite said: What a fail. lololol They don't make orange pixels like they used to. Up to .07" and I can't even register a rain rate right now. Reminds me of that fake snow on the back side of coastal storms that looks great on radar but doesn't actually hit the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 At least I get to watch it pour in CON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 Meh, best stuff south, decent downpour or two. .30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Missing the best cells already. Any is appreciated I guess. heavy showers staying south. the disappointment begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 0.08" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 .16" from morning batch of rain. Dewpoint still at a comfortable 63F. What are the thoughts of any afternoon convection? Deeper clouds seem to be moving right along with lower clouds in NY state. With rising dews and any sun what's the chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 Suns been out up here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 1 hour ago, dendrite said: 0.08" 0.00". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: 0.00". Might want to start incorporating some Cacti in your landscape designs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 That lone yellow pixel overhead is producing a very healthy downpour this time. Steamy air must be moving in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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