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Met Summer/Early Fall 16 Banter


dmillz25

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19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that could mean blocking galore

The only way to get cold air down in to our regoin moving forward. With such a lame pool of cold to work with we really not it to get fourced down and in by blocking. I think we still see big storms and cold periods for a few more decades but eventually there just will not be enough cold up there anymore 

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I hope they can pull this off.

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are/strategy

Goals by 2025

To provide forecast information needed to help save lives, protect infrastructure and promote economic development in Member and Co-operating States through:

Research at the frontiers of knowledge to develop an integrated global model of the Earth system to produce forecasts with increasing fidelity on time ranges up to one year ahead. This will tackle the most difficult problems in numerical weather prediction such as the currently low level of predictive skill of European weather for a month ahead.

Operational ensemble-based analyses and predictions that describe the range of possible scenarios and their likelihood of occurrence and that raise the international bar for quality and operational reliability. Skill in medium-range weather predictions in 2016, on average, extends to about one week ahead. By 2025 the goal is to make skilful ensemble predictions of high-impact weather up to two weeks ahead. By developing a seamless approach, we also aim to predict large-scale patterns and regime transitions up to four weeks ahead, and global-scale anomalies up to a year ahead.

ECMWF's strategy

The strategy covers a 10-year period and is renewed every 5 years. As a user-driven organisation, ECMWF discusses its strategy with representatives of Member States before submitting it to the Council for adoption.

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The level of persistent warmth we are seeing is alarming. It's never been like this for so long, it's like someone just flipped the heat switch over a year ago and we've been roasting ever since. 

Spring and Fall really are dead or will be at this rate. Soon we'll be seeing numerous 90s well into October and multiple 80s in November. We already get that for March-May.

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31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The level of persistent warmth we are seeing is alarming. It's never been like this for so long, it's like someone just flipped the heat switch over a year ago and we've been roasting ever since. 

Spring and Fall really are dead or will be at this rate. Soon we'll be seeing numerous 90s well into October and multiple 80s in November. We already get that for March-May.

It seems we've been having a stretch of cooler than normal Springs, the past few haven't been too great, aside from May 2015. Summer and Fall+Dec have been noticeably torchy though.

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22 hours ago, Cfa said:

It seems we've been having a stretch of cooler than normal Springs, the past few haven't been too great, aside from May 2015. Summer and Fall+Dec have been noticeably torchy though.

Most of our recent springs have been above normal. Spring 2016 and 2015 were both warm. This past March was the 6th warmest on record. Spring 2010 and 2012 were also among the warmest recorded.

Contrary to what you say, we have had some cold Octobers and Novembers despite the persistent September warmth. Nov 2012-2014 were all significantly below average, three in a row. November 2012 and October 2011 both had a major snowstorm; my house in Dobbs Ferry had 8" in the Nov 7, 2012 event and 10" in the Oct 29, 2011 event. 

So I think the warmth in spring has been more remarkable than that in fall (especially Spring 2010, 2012, 2015), as the above average temperatures in spring span all three months whereas fall warmth has occurred mostly in September.

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Not saying that the CFS is correct yet, but the reason for the CFS pattern is that the warm NEPAC is calling the shots and not the La Nada/weak Nina.

It's going for a replay of the 13-14 La Nada/ weak La Nina and NEPAC record SST warmth with more of a -AO instead of +AO.

Having those warm waters in the NE PAC may help, but I still expect a more negative PDO than Winter 13-14. I expect the warm SSTs to be centered further west this year, rather than along the coastline which seems to be cooling.

I'd love to see a repeat of 13-14. I had 58" of snow in Bay Ridge, amazing for southern Brooklyn. We measured 74" in Dobbs Ferry and would have challenged the 60-61 record of 90" seasonal snowfall if not for missing a couple storms in March. It was one of the coldest Marches in recent memory, and the coldest on record for much of NNE.

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another deluge staying south with the Julia remnants.

 


http://www.weather.gov/akq/heavyrain_sept19-22

3 ENE Windsor                17.00 in  0817 AM 09/22   RAWS    

1 W Great Bridge             17.85 in  0612 AM 09/22   COCORAHS   

Eventually this dry streak we are in is going to have to end and hopefully it will be soon and in a big way. It has been pretty boring overall storm wise since the blizzard back in January.

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