FPizz Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: another arctic furnace Yeah, instead of -40 during winter it will be a balmy -35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: another arctic furnace There's no missing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 32 minutes ago, forkyfork said: another arctic furnace that could mean blocking galore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: that could mean blocking galore The only way to get cold air down in to our regoin moving forward. With such a lame pool of cold to work with we really not it to get fourced down and in by blocking. I think we still see big storms and cold periods for a few more decades but eventually there just will not be enough cold up there anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 12, 2016 Share Posted September 12, 2016 keep on looking at the hwrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 I hope they can pull this off. http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/who-we-are/strategy Goals by 2025 To provide forecast information needed to help save lives, protect infrastructure and promote economic development in Member and Co-operating States through: Research at the frontiers of knowledge to develop an integrated global model of the Earth system to produce forecasts with increasing fidelity on time ranges up to one year ahead. This will tackle the most difficult problems in numerical weather prediction such as the currently low level of predictive skill of European weather for a month ahead. Operational ensemble-based analyses and predictions that describe the range of possible scenarios and their likelihood of occurrence and that raise the international bar for quality and operational reliability. Skill in medium-range weather predictions in 2016, on average, extends to about one week ahead. By 2025 the goal is to make skilful ensemble predictions of high-impact weather up to two weeks ahead. By developing a seamless approach, we also aim to predict large-scale patterns and regime transitions up to four weeks ahead, and global-scale anomalies up to a year ahead. ECMWF's strategy The strategy covers a 10-year period and is renewed every 5 years. As a user-driven organisation, ECMWF discusses its strategy with representatives of Member States before submitting it to the Council for adoption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 Not enough cold in a region that doesn't see the sun for three months of the year? I think you need to see an orbital shift to get us back to the Jurassic ages. But then again, the poles may have been frozen over in winter then as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 the next warm spell can't come soon enough. this is too cold too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 6th anniversary of the most intense local severe thunderstorm event of the 2000's so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 16, 2016 Author Share Posted September 16, 2016 Will never forget that event. I remember just making inside my building before a loud clap of thunder then hail and winds picked up. I remember the sky being green as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 I was on the train during that storm What an intense storm that was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 Now 100 days until Christmas. #winteriscoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 The level of persistent warmth we are seeing is alarming. It's never been like this for so long, it's like someone just flipped the heat switch over a year ago and we've been roasting ever since. Spring and Fall really are dead or will be at this rate. Soon we'll be seeing numerous 90s well into October and multiple 80s in November. We already get that for March-May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 since 2010 our only below normal september was in 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The level of persistent warmth we are seeing is alarming. It's never been like this for so long, it's like someone just flipped the heat switch over a year ago and we've been roasting ever since. Spring and Fall really are dead or will be at this rate. Soon we'll be seeing numerous 90s well into October and multiple 80s in November. We already get that for March-May. It seems we've been having a stretch of cooler than normal Springs, the past few haven't been too great, aside from May 2015. Summer and Fall+Dec have been noticeably torchy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 That's a really nice pattern for Jan-Feb which would lead to cold and snow, but I hardly expect so much PAC ridging/+PNA in a Nina. That almost looks like Feb 2015 walking through the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 22 hours ago, Cfa said: It seems we've been having a stretch of cooler than normal Springs, the past few haven't been too great, aside from May 2015. Summer and Fall+Dec have been noticeably torchy though. Most of our recent springs have been above normal. Spring 2016 and 2015 were both warm. This past March was the 6th warmest on record. Spring 2010 and 2012 were also among the warmest recorded. Contrary to what you say, we have had some cold Octobers and Novembers despite the persistent September warmth. Nov 2012-2014 were all significantly below average, three in a row. November 2012 and October 2011 both had a major snowstorm; my house in Dobbs Ferry had 8" in the Nov 7, 2012 event and 10" in the Oct 29, 2011 event. So I think the warmth in spring has been more remarkable than that in fall (especially Spring 2010, 2012, 2015), as the above average temperatures in spring span all three months whereas fall warmth has occurred mostly in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not saying that the CFS is correct yet, but the reason for the CFS pattern is that the warm NEPAC is calling the shots and not the La Nada/weak Nina. It's going for a replay of the 13-14 La Nada/ weak La Nina and NEPAC record SST warmth with more of a -AO instead of +AO. Having those warm waters in the NE PAC may help, but I still expect a more negative PDO than Winter 13-14. I expect the warm SSTs to be centered further west this year, rather than along the coastline which seems to be cooling. I'd love to see a repeat of 13-14. I had 58" of snow in Bay Ridge, amazing for southern Brooklyn. We measured 74" in Dobbs Ferry and would have challenged the 60-61 record of 90" seasonal snowfall if not for missing a couple storms in March. It was one of the coldest Marches in recent memory, and the coldest on record for much of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 What happened to bluewaves posts in the niña thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 19, 2016 Share Posted September 19, 2016 Boring Tropical season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 55 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 23, 2016 Author Share Posted September 23, 2016 I swear winter better not be this boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 33 minutes ago, BxEngine said: You binge watched this again, didn't you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: You binge watched this again, didn't you... Again? I never stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 On September 16, 2016 at 9:57 AM, Snow88 said: I was on the train during that storm What an intense storm that was Yo dude what about the upcoming winter dude bro? Man... What u thinking 80iches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 Was the warmest astronomical summer here on station record...mean temp of 76.9 degrees beats the 76.3 set in 2005. Precip of 8.74" is the 7th driest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 Another deluge staying south with the Julia remnants. http://www.weather.gov/akq/heavyrain_sept19-22 3 ENE Windsor 17.00 in 0817 AM 09/22 RAWS 1 W Great Bridge 17.85 in 0612 AM 09/22 COCORAHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another deluge staying south with the Julia remnants. http://www.weather.gov/akq/heavyrain_sept19-22 3 ENE Windsor 17.00 in 0817 AM 09/22 RAWS 1 W Great Bridge 17.85 in 0612 AM 09/22 COCORAHS Eventually this dry streak we are in is going to have to end and hopefully it will be soon and in a big way. It has been pretty boring overall storm wise since the blizzard back in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.