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Met Summer/Early Fall 16 Banter


dmillz25

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Time to build an ark.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/08/01/ellicott-city-maryland-flood/87914944/

The massive rainfall that caused a devastating flash flood in Ellicott City, Md., last weekend was a rare 1-in-1,000-year event that has been happening with unprecedented frequency in recent years, meteorologists said.

The storm, which killed two people, dumped 6.5 inches of rain on Ellicott City in only about 3 hours, with 5.5 inches falling in just 90 minutes, theNational Weather Service said. One nearby spot recorded 8.22 inches, amounts that weather service meteorologist Greg Carbincalled "off the charts."

This is at least the ninth "1-in-1,000" year rain event across the United States since 2010, and the third this year. Flooding in Houston in April killed eight people. And in June, 23 died in a in West Virginia flood caused by heavy rain.

So many "1-in-1,000 year" rainfalls appear unprecedented. "The number of these type of events has seemingly become more pronounced in recent years," meteorologist Steve Bowen of a global reinsurance firm Aon Benfield said in a tweet Monday.

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With respect to USA Today, downtown Ellicott City has experienced floods like this before; there's even a placard on one of the bridges going over the river showing the approximate heights various flood crests. It's built in the bottom of a valley which is fed by numerous tributaries. One of my old law school roommate's grew up there; the area of the flood is the historic section.

The article reads a bit sensational to me.

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1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

With respect to USA Today, downtown Ellicott City has experienced floods like this before; there's even a placard on one of the bridges going over the river showing the approximate heights various flood crests. It's built in the bottom of a valley which is fed by numerous tributaries. One of my old law school roommate's grew up there; the area of the flood is the historic section.

The article reads a bit sensational to me.

The Islip flood was far far more impressive. It was the soil type and terrain that made all the difference 

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15 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

With respect to USA Today, downtown Ellicott City has experienced floods like this before; there's even a placard on one of the bridges going over the river showing the approximate heights various flood crests. It's built in the bottom of a valley which is fed by numerous tributaries. One of my old law school roommate's grew up there; the area of the flood is the historic section.

The article reads a bit sensational to me.

A 20 ft rise in minutes smashes the old record going back to 1868.

https://mobile.twitter.com/_cingraham/status/759601204636758016/photo/1

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14 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The Islip flood was far far more impressive. It was the soil type and terrain that made all the difference 

We are really lucky that we don't have the terrain that they have there with creeks or rivers that can rise 20 feet in minutes.

The Long Beach flash flood of 10 to 11 inches back in August 2011 as was the ISP 13+was heavier. The amounts in this event were a little

more than the Wantagh 6+ flood last September. In our area these events resulted in widespread basement floods and street closures.

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19 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Typical. Another winter where Eastern North America manages to be the coldest area on Earth relative to normal.

That's the main difference between the cold winters during the 1970's and 1990's. There was much more cold to go around the 

Northern Hemisphere than there is today. Our recent cold has been limited to a much smaller geographic region.

You can also see how much warmer the Arctic has become relative to the past.

1415.png

94.png

7778.png

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are really lucky that we don't have the terrain that they have there with creeks or rivers that can rise 20 feet in minutes.

The Long Beach flash flood of 10 to 11 inches back in August 2011 as was the ISP 13+was heavier. The amounts in this event were a little

more than the Wantagh 6+ flood last September. In our area these events resulted in widespread basement floods and street closures.

 

Its wasn't 13" but I wouldn't call it little.  Those rainfall rates are insane. Close to an inch in 5 mins! Over 2" in 15 mins. Those first 30 mins with over 3" did it for them. Then to get another 3 inches or so is pretty crazy. I don't remember that LI flood in 2011 that well, but I dont think they reached rates like this.

ellicottcitypcpn.png&w=1484

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

That's the main difference between the cold winters during the 1970's and 1990's. There was much more cold to go around the 

Northern Hemisphere than there is today. Our recent cold has been limited to a much smaller geographic region.

You can also see how much warmer the Arctic has become relative to the past.

1415.png

94.png

7778.png

Very interesting. I wonder why we've been bearing the brunt of the cold anomalies lately. Is it the geography? It just seems weird, like we've become a magnet for displaced arctic/polar air.

I know it should eventually balance out in the end, hopefully soon. Cold is useless. All I want is Dec 2015 followed by a snowier Jan+Feb 2012.

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4 hours ago, Cfa said:

Very interesting. I wonder why we've been bearing the brunt of the cold anomalies lately. Is it the geography? It just seems weird, like we've become a magnet for displaced arctic/polar air.

I know it should eventually balance out in the end, hopefully soon. Cold is useless. All I want is Dec 2015 followed by a snowier Jan+Feb 2012.

Well to get that type of snow you need the cold. Otherwise it will be rain and a crappy mix all the time. I wouldn't say cold is useless. Freezing cold and dry is useless if that's what you meant. I would much rather have cold air in place when a storm is heading for us as oppose to having mild temps all winter and hoping the cold arrives with the storm. 

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It will be interesting to see if the greatest 5 year December warm streak in recorded history continues or we return to cold again.

December NYC...ave temp..departure...monthly max..min

2010...32.8...-4.5....60/19

2011...43.3...+6.0...62/22

2012...41.5...+4.0...62/28

2013...38.5...+1.0...71/19

2014...40.5....+3.0..65/24

2015...50.8...+13.3..72/38

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59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the greatest 5 year December warm streak in recorded history continues or we return to cold again.

December NYC...ave temp..departure...monthly max..min

2010...32.8...-4.5....60/19

2011...43.3...+6.0...62/22

2012...41.5...+4.0...62/28

2013...38.5...+1.0...71/19

2014...40.5....+3.0..65/24

2015...50.8...+13.3..72/38

we need a negative AO for December...most of the cold ones had it...

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

we need a negative AO for December...most of the cold ones had it...

Seems like it has been mostly a delayed by not denied pattern for snow, blocking, and cold  while we had record SST's off the East Coast in December.

NEW.png

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Might be willing to bet that for summer 2016, BOS ends up reporting more 90+ days than NYC. Not in the real world but in the alternate universe of the Central Park thermometer. Dysfunction trumps climatology.

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