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June 2016 Obs/Disc


mappy

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Basically, you want a good updraft so the raindrop gets cycled a few times and grows by colliding with other raindrops. In some cases it could also be melted hail.

Thanks. Would that updraft and recycling have to take place at a fairly low level? I was just thinking that a very large raindrop would likely split apart if it encountered a long period of air resistance.

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FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED   :lol: 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
430 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

MDZ003-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ050>053-055-
501>506-050400-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160605T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-
NORTHERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE-CENTRAL VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE-
HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-
EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...
STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...STUARTS DRAFT...HARRISONBURG...
STRASBURG...WOODSTOCK...MOUNT JACKSON...NEW MARKET...WINCHESTER...
LURAY...SHENANDOAH...STANLEY...FRONT ROYAL...BERRYVILLE...
LOVINGSTON...CHARLOTTESVILLE...STANARDSVILLE...HIGHTOWN...
MONTEREY...BIG MEADOWS...WINTERGREEN...ROMNEY...PAW PAW...
MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...SHEPHERDSTOWN...MOOREFIELD...
BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...ANTIOCH...
KEYSER...NEW CREEK...RIDGEVILLE...RUSSELLDALE...HEADSVILLE...
FORT ASHBY...RIVERTON...BRANDYWINE...FRANKLIN...OAK FLAT...
RUDDLE...SUGAR GROVE
430 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MARYLAND...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALLEGANY...EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY AND WASHINGTON. IN
VIRGINIA...ALBEMARLE...AUGUSTA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE...
CLARKE...EASTERN HIGHLAND...FREDERICK VA.( :lol: )..GREENE...NELSON...

NORTHERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE...PAGE...ROCKINGHAM...
SHENANDOAH...WARREN AND WESTERN HIGHLAND. IN WEST VIRGINIA...
BERKELEY...EASTERN GRANT...EASTERN MINERAL...EASTERN
PENDLETON...HAMPSHIRE...HARDY...JEFFERSON...MORGAN...WESTERN
GRANT...WESTERN MINERAL AND WESTERN PENDLETON.

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT

* A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE
EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE-
HALF TO ONE INCH EXPECTED. LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2- 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THESE SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS.

* THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL :lol:  WILL CAUSE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF.

SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY QUICKLY RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN
ADDITION TO POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.

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Is the forecast high on wednesday of 71 legit? I feel like the cooler temps keep getting pushed back. Kinda like snowstorms in the winter, always day 3-4.

 

It's been there for several days now, and unlike every other day in the past 2+ weeks hasn't been getting bumped up a degree or two each day.  Really looking forward to this.  Hope it happens.

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Thanks. Would that updraft and recycling have to take place at a fairly low level? I was just thinking that a very large raindrop would likely split apart if it encountered a long period of air resistance.

 

I would think so, too.  I would think you'd need low wind-shear also.  Seems that you encounter big drops in tropical-type conditions: pop-up types that move very slowly.

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pretty healthy cell entering northwest Montgomery.   looks like it has a (small-sized) hail core

 

I saw that cell on RS, I liked how the cell disintegrated as it crossed 270 and then picked right back up into a storm with what looks like a hail core again once it passed it.

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