Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 1, 2016 Share Posted June 1, 2016 SPC has a Day 3 slight risk for Friday in the Upper MS Valley: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html ...UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITY... THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ENEWD FROM THE SRN SD VICINITY INTO SRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EARLY CONVECTION -- DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATION WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOW-LEVEL JET -- MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE RISK AREA. THIS -- ALONG WITH QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING OF THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR -- RAISE QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WHICH WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT. STILL...WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW STRENGTHENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACHING LOW AND ENHANCED/WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS SPREADING EWD ATOP THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...SHEAR SHOULD BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF IA/MN/WI DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA...GIVEN THE APPARENT/EVOLVING RISK FOR HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. Also a 15% risk already out for Saturday for large parts of MI/IN/IL: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2016 VALID 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BOTH DEPICTING CONTINUED DIGGING/AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS TROUGH DIGS/EXPANDS SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY DAY 4 /SAT. 6-4/...A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL LIKELY FOCUS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- AND THUS CAPE -- APPEARS LIKELY TO MODEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY TEMPERED. STILL...WITH A 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM...SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI/ERN IL/INDIANA. And FWIW there is currently a Marginal risk for today for a sock-shaped area from the UP to STL: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html ...GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID MS VALLEY AREA... A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF EARLY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. WINDS ALOFT AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHERE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP. NET RESULT IS THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 1, 2016 Author Share Posted June 1, 2016 In addition to heavy rainfall amounts from the isolated storms here in the SPI area earlier today (1.41 since midnight at Capitol Airport according to WICS-20's 5PM news), apparently there was a funnel cloud sighting in the west side of Springfield. No warnings were issued related to this sighting: NWUS53 KILX 012007LSRILXPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL307 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2016..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0245 PM FUNNEL CLOUD SPRINGFIELD 39.78N 89.64W06/01/2016 SANGAMON IL PUBLICLOCATED AT INTERSECTION OF WASHINGTON ST AND VETERANSPARKWAY ON WEST SIDE OF SPRINGFIELD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 Well... the day 4 slight did not last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 Tomorrow could be interesting around here if the morning stuff gets out of the way in time. Conditional tornado threat for most of MPX. Several of the cams now have things refiring in W WI, so we'll see. I just want a storm. I haven't had a decent storm yet this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 Today's threat ended up farther east than anticipated a few days ago: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html ...OH/TN VALLEY REGION... AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A BROAD DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN AREAS OF FEWER CLOUDS/STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY TO STEEPEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM ERN TN...ERN KY...SRN OH INTO WV AND FAR SWRN VA WHERE FEWER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT...WITH MAXIMUM MLCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS A BROAD REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARIES TO SPATIALLY FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MULTIPLE SMALL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 Watch possible for E TN, E KY and maybe far S OH: www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0812.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 Also major flooding not too far south of me--2 to 3 feet of flood water reported in Nokomis, IL from storms early this morning. Flash Flood Warning issued earlier for eastern Montgomery County but is slated to expire (barring its extension) in a few minutes at 1PM: NWUS53 KLSX 041643LSRLSXPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO1143 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2016..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0955 AM FLASH FLOOD NOKOMIS 39.30N 89.29W06/04/2016 MONTGOMERY IL TRAINED SPOTTERREPORT OF WATER 2 TO 3 FT OVER ROUTE 16 IN THE NORTHERNPART OF THE CITY.&&CORRECTED LOCATION$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Day 1 Marginal for SE Michigan and Ohio. Hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Possible tornado Sat. evening in Wayne County IN near Richmond per WTHR TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 And the streak is broken... heard thunder for the first time in about a month or more. I literally went the entire month of May and first week of June with no lighting/thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Hoping to see my first legitimate storm of the season today. By legitimate, I don't mean severe, but more that it would be nice to see lightning for the first time since March (over Lake Ontario, no less). Sitting at 74/63 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Getting grazed by a southern part of a line of t'storms now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Hoping to see my first legitimate storm of the season today. By legitimate, I don't mean severe, but more that it would be nice to see lightning for the first time since March (over Lake Ontario, no less). Sitting at 74/63 right now. Yep, that pop up storm did it here. 20 CC/CG strikes within about 5 miles of me, including one roughly a quarter mile away. Back to partly sunny skies again, but that was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Hopefully this last storm off to the west can go severe. Sadly all of the stronger shear is over by the lake shore making NC Ohio the severe spot today. Some nice storms over the lake as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 ILN confirmed 2 EF0 tornadoes from yesterday. One near Columbus and another near Richmond, IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Nice line of severe cells in se WI at present moving se. Warned for 70mph wind gusts. Somewhat of a surprise given current parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Nice line of severe cells in se WI at present moving se. Warned for 70mph wind gusts. Models did have a 2nd wave coming through this evening, that is probably it. I don't know if it has enough behind it to make it this far but there is an outside chance of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Downstream environment is hostile for sustained convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Widespread wind damage in Jefferson County WI per LSR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 RIP geos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 RIP geos Remained dry here. Nothing but a gust front that went through. Edit: Only managed a few sprinkles with the back end cell that was dying out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Hopefully this last storm off to the west can go severe. Sadly all of the stronger shear is over by the lake shore making NC Ohio the severe spot today. Some nice storms over the lake as well Sandusky/Cedar Point took quite the punch today. Park closed on Monday due to lack of adequate power and damage cleanup. http://fox8.com/2016/06/05/photos-cedar-point-causeway-closed-power-out-in-sections-of-park-due-to-storm-damage/ http://www.wkyc.com/weather/severe-storms-roll-through-northeast-ohio/232766818 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 LARGE TREES AND LIMBS DOWN WITH SOME FALLING ON BUILDINGS CAUSING ROOF DAMAGE. POWER LINES DOWN ON CARS ON CEDAR POINT DRIVE. (CLE) --- I hope nobody stepped out of their car and got electrocuted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Oh, hello! From nothing to slight in two outlooks. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 061541Z - 061645Z SUMMARY...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IS BEING PLANNED FOR THE 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. CLUSTERS OF FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE OFFER INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT FAST-MOVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WNW...AHEAD OF WHICH A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WILL EXIST AMIDST STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW. ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL REASONING FOR THE UPGRADE WILL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Watch may be inbound http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2016/md0830.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Watch may be inbound http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2016/md0830.html We tend to do well in these sort of setups. Can't say the same with the low shear/high instability setups though, they almost always bust here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Showers and thunderstorms are starting to pop up in SE Michigan. According to SPC mesoanalysis, there is a grand total of 317 J/kg of MLCAPE in that area. That's pretty low CAPE, the situation but may be worthy of the slight risk category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 At least radar-worthy across the LP this pm. Has been a lack of genuine warned storms across SWMI through the first 5 months of 2016. EDIT: So far, most cells are only SWS-worthy with gusts a bit under severe threshold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 I think it is really uncanny at this point. There have been so few slight risks (and greater risks) and so few severe storm reports in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley north of I-70 in Indiana and Ohio, up to this date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 I think it is really uncanny at this point. There have been so few slight risks (and greater risks) and so few severe storm reports in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley north of I-70 in Indiana and Ohio, up to this date. As in, they'll all come at once? A July '95 run of Derechos? Might happen if heat sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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