J.C. Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Am I seeing this right, mid 80s late this week and all the way into November. Every year I say, welp, I haven't seen that before. Why do we have a snowfall prediction thread for this region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 I'm beginning to think that our first freeze is going to be a little later than normal. Our average first freeze is in a few days. On the bright side though, Accuweather is forecasting sleet for Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 On 10/26/2016 at 2:37 AM, Snowless in Carrollton said: I'm beginning to think that our first freeze is going to be a little later than normal. Our average first freeze is in a few days. Expand I wouldn't worry about that anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Cancelling every winter for the rest of time is impressive even by this forum's standards. While warming may bring you fewer snow events overall, it's also possible it will bring more massive winter storms. Calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 On 10/26/2016 at 3:58 PM, Hugo said: Cancelling every winter for the rest of time is impressive even by this forum's standards. While warming may bring you fewer snow events overall, it's also possible it will bring more massive winter storms. Calm down. Expand Exactly, and the pattern setup can still trumps any overall warming. It's been some time since we've had good blocking in the winter. Give us a +PNA, -AO, and a -NAO in the winter months and see what happens. Otherwise, lots of snow build up in Siberia this year. Should be some very cold air building in that part of the world. Give us some cross polar flow and we could be talking about the return of the Siberian Express. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 On 10/26/2016 at 3:58 PM, Hugo said: Cancelling every winter for the rest of time is impressive even by this forum's standards. While warming may bring you fewer snow events overall, it's also possible it will bring more massive winter storms. Calm down. Expand Hah...I assumed we were just bantering in the banter thread :-) In all seriousness it's hard to argue, at least for central NC the snow futility we have been in since '90. I don't know if we will ever return to the climatology we saw in the 60's, 70's and 80's. The mid Atlantic seems to be setting new records every winter so some folks are doing OK. It's going to take a long time to really understand if this is the new norm or just a cycle. For this winter I am expecting a slightly AN winter (+1 to +3). Well BN in snow for central NC. The Midwest will get hammered this winter and suspect the MA will have another great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 On 10/26/2016 at 5:20 PM, packbacker said: Hah...I assumed we were just bantering in the banter thread :-) In all seriousness it's hard to argue, at least for central NC the snow futility we have been in since '90. I don't know if we will ever return to the climatology we saw in the 60's, 70's and 80's. The mid Atlantic seems to be setting new records every winter so some folks are doing OK. It's going to take a long time to really understand if this is the new norm or just a cycle. For this winter I am expecting a slightly AN winter (+1 to +3). Well BN in snow for central NC. The Midwest will get hammered this winter and suspect the MA will have another great winter. Expand Pack, Going with the prospect of la nina and the NOAA winter outlook what you state is the best bet. But since I'm not a meteorologist, and don't have to give good reasons, I'm betting we have a good year. I'm strictly basing this on a hunch that there will be extreme cold air to our north and that we'll get more blocking this year. I think most storms will try to ride up or west of the Appalachians, but there will be plenty of CAD setups to feed in that very cold air and fight the progress (Miller Bs). We've seen many cases in the past few years were CAD wins the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 On 10/26/2016 at 6:07 PM, FallsLake said: Pack, Going with the prospect of la nina and the NOAA winter outlook what you state is the best bet. But since I'm not a meteorologist, and don't have to give good reasons, I'm betting we have a good year. I'm strictly basing this on a hunch that there will be extreme cold air to our north and that we'll get more blocking this year. I think most storms will try to ride up or west of the Appalachians, but there will be plenty of CAD setups to feed in that very cold air and fight the progress (Miller Bs). We've seen many cases in the past few years were CAD wins the day. Expand Typically a weak Nina to neutral neg is pretty good for us. Be a shame to mess that up this winter. The lack of a winter -nao is getting ridiculous. My hunch is this will be a boring winter, we get a 1-2" something in Jan and early spring in Feb. This is the least excited I have been about a winter since 11/12. I hope I am wrong though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 I'll put a trigger warning on my post next time. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Nrgjeff says weeklies show winter coming in around the first of December. Possibly delayed two eeeks tommid December. Warm now means the hammer drops later. Rubber bands and ****. He's a great met in the TN Valley forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 On 10/26/2016 at 6:28 PM, LithiaWx said: Nrgjeff says weeklies show winter coming in around the first of December. Possibly delayed two eeeks tommid December. Warm now means the hammer drops later. Rubber bands and ****. He's a great met in the TN Valley forum. Expand That's good news. How was the precip forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 26, 2016 Author Share Posted October 26, 2016 On 10/26/2016 at 6:28 PM, LithiaWx said: Nrgjeff says weeklies show winter coming in around the first of December. Possibly delayed two eeeks tommid December. Warm now means the hammer drops later. Rubber bands and ****. He's a great met in the TN Valley forum. Expand So, he is forecasting a condom winter where the rubber stretches until it finally breaks leaving us pregnant with storm possibilities. The question is, do we end up with a single birth or is Mother Nature feeling like Octo-Mom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 On 10/26/2016 at 11:32 PM, jburns said: So, he is forecasting a condom winter where the rubber stretches until it finally breaks leaving us pregnant with storm possibilities. The question is, do we end up with a single birth or is Mother Nature feeling like Octo-Mom? Expand 2010 was like that, warm till Dec then 3 little events leading up to the Xmas big dog and then a smattering of smaller events Jan into Feb.....best winter in forever around here....which means it will probably be 20 yrs till we get another one like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 The old rubber band has to snap back, pendulum has to swing the other way theory. I guess that does happen sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Here's to hoping the rubber band snaps back hard and smacks us in the face! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Going to the zoo tomorrow. Looks like great weather for it. Only 3 more days until Halloween! I can't wait. Then it's Thanksgiving, Christmas, and hopefully tracking winter storms. I love this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Does any member here have admin contacts with Talkweather.com? I assume Talkweather.com is now dead (hope not) - I'm an Alabama native and have been utilizing that site (various iterations of) since the 1990's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Atlanta will set a record tomorrow for most 80 degree days in a year. The old record was set in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 James Spann is such a moron. He says in his blog today that Birmingham hasn't had a record high in October since 1984 so " we were long overdue for this". He always has a way of justifying extreme warmth. I guess we were also due for a record warm October and one of the driest Octobers on record. BTW, he was wrong about Birmingham not having a record high in October since 1984 since Birmingham had a record high earlier this month ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 So I'm in college in Oklahoma right now and I'm going home to Chapel Hill for a month from December 17-January 16. I have a feeling Oklahoma will get a big snowstorm while I'm in North Carolina and North Carolina will get a big snowstorm while I'm in Oklahoma, and so I'll miss out on snow entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 On 10/26/2016 at 6:25 PM, packbacker said: Typically a weak Nina to neutral neg is pretty good for us. Be a shame to mess that up this winter. The lack of a winter -nao is getting ridiculous. My hunch is this will be a boring winter, we get a 1-2" something in Jan and early spring in Feb. This is the least excited I have been about a winter since 11/12. I hope I am wrong though!My hunch is opposite but that's probably expected, I really like this winter if we can get it going early. If we continue to hope for a fab feb, it's not going to happen...that's been proven year in and year out lately with the warmth. Not saying December has to be rockin', but we need a threat or two. I'll be really bummed if it's mid Jan without snow. I enjoy reading your posts and everyone else's this's preseason. I plan to be active once things get going in Nov, flu shot season in the pharmacy is killing me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Pretty sad that this so called " cold front" later this week will bring temps to around 5-7 degrees above average instead of the 15 degrees above average we've been having. I'm beginning to wonder if we will even have normal temps the rest of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Happy Halloween! Can't wait to take the kids trick-or-treating tonight. It's a blast on N Main Street in Wake Forest. Anyone wearing a costume today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 On 10/31/2016 at 5:12 PM, Brick Tamland said: Happy Halloween! Can't wait to take the kids trick-or-treating tonight. It's a blast on N Main Street in Wake Forest. Anyone wearing a costume today? Expand I'm wearing my birthday suit. Does that count ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Now that Halloween is in the books, which radio station in the triangle area or in NC flips to an all christmas/holiday music format tomorrow 11/1 there has to be at least one here. I will be avoiding it tremendously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 On 11/1/2016 at 1:06 AM, Avdave said: Now that Halloween is in the books, which radio station in the triangle area or in NC flips to an all christmas/holiday music format tomorrow 11/1 there has to be at least one here. I will be avoiding it tremendously Expand I personally love Christmas music and listen to it nonstop from November 1st to December 31st. I also put my Christmas tree up tomorrow.`Once Halloween is over, the Holiday season is officially here ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 On 11/1/2016 at 1:29 AM, Snowless in Carrollton said: I personally love Christmas music and listen to it nonstop from November 1st to December 31st. I also put my Christmas tree up tomorrow.`Once Halloween is over, the Holiday season is officially here ! Expand surely you mix in a little Black Sabbath here and there to balance things out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 On 11/1/2016 at 1:06 AM, Avdave said: Now that Halloween is in the books, which radio station in the triangle area or in NC flips to an all christmas/holiday music format tomorrow 11/1 there has to be at least one here. I will be avoiding it tremendously Expand 101.5 wral changes over at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 On 11/1/2016 at 1:29 AM, Snowless in Carrollton said: I personally love Christmas music and listen to it nonstop from November 1st to December 31st. I also put my Christmas tree up tomorrow.`Once Halloween is over, the Holiday season is officially here ! Expand Seriously? Wow that is way too early for me. Especially with the warm temps outside still . Have fun putting up the tree tomorrow lol On 11/1/2016 at 1:47 AM, Isopycnic said: 101.5 wral changes over at some point. Expand I figured they would around Thanksgiving. I know some stations on the east coast start playing that music Nov 1 which is way to early IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 On 11/1/2016 at 2:08 AM, Avdave said: Seriously? Wow that is way too early for me. Especially with the warm temps outside still . Have fun putting up the tree tomorrow lol I figured they would around Thanksgiving. I know some stations on the east coast start playing that music Nov 1 which is way to early IMO Expand We can listen to Christmas music on the way to the swamp in two weeks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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