21st Century Banter Thread

[Lookout]

10 hours ago, Brick Tamland said:

Ohio and Indiana were hit hard today with tornadoes. Crazy that the biggest days for severe weather this year happened in February and August.

In regards to this outbreak it was somewhat unexpected from what I heard...which is pretty crazy considering how many there were.

Speaking of tornadoes....not sure if this has been posted anywhere and it might not be too surprising but here is an article about a  study out of purdue  that says the area of the most frequent  tornado activity has shifted from the plains into the southeast over the past few decades..

http://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2016/Q3/center-of-u.s.-tornado-activity-shifting-east-and-south,-possibly-due-to-climate-change.html

 

August 16, 2016

Center of U.S. tornado activity shifting east and south, possibly due to climate change

 

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. – A Purdue University research team has found that the center of tornado activity in the United States has shifted in recent decades, and this shift is possibly influenced by climate change.

“This completely redefines annual tornado activity in the United States,” said Ernest Agee, a professor in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences.

Findings detailed in a paper that appeared Aug. 4 in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, published by the American Meteorological Society, show evidence that the central area of annual tornado activity has moved from Oklahoma to Alabama.

Agee’s team studied data from the past 60 years to look for a shift in annual tornado activity. The team divided the 60 years into two groups: 1954-1983, which was a time of cooler temperatures compared to an increasingly warmer second period, from 1983-2013.

Data showed a notable decrease in both annual counts and tornado days in the traditional “tornado alley” of the central plains, aided by declines in summer and autumn. However, annual values were sustained in the southeast with some increase in “Dixie alley” due in part to substantial autumn seasons increases from Mississippi to Indiana, Agee said.

One (250km x 250km) region in Oklahoma, for example, had the greatest annual number of tornado days in the first period. However, in the latter period, a similar Oklahoma region recorded the largest decrease in tornado days, while central Tennessee had the greatest increase.

These data support the research being performed as a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s VORTEX-SE project, said Michael Baldwin, an associate professor in Purdue’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences. Baldwin leads a team that was selected as one of nine to be a part of the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment Southeast, or VORTEX-SE. The research will continue into 2017.

“As compared to the Great Plains, the southeastern United States experiences more unexpected tornadoes from small storms, tornadoes at night and tornadoes outside of the traditional spring tornado season,” he said.

While more research is needed, climate change may be influencing these results.

 “The geographical shift in tornado activity has been established through powerful statistical methods and is shown to occur during two successive 30-year periods moving from a colder weather pattern to warmer conditions,” Agee said. “More research is needed to search for changing climate trends responsible for tornado formation and this geographical shift, but climate change is a distinct possibility.”

The paper was co-authored by Agee and research assistant Jennifer Larson; and undergraduate students Alexandra Marmo and Samuel Childs in Purdue’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Science. Childs is now a graduate student in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. 

[Brick Tamland]

I don't know if it is climate change or what, but I think our weather is definitely changing. The usual parameters and indicies that used to give us certain weather in the past doesn't seem to be as concrete anymore. We see more wild weather happening in times they usually don't happen. And the models seem to be getting worse instead of better with handling systems. 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

I don't know if it is climate change or what, but I think our weather is definitely changing. The usual parameters and indicies that used to give us certain weather in the past doesn't seem to be as concrete anymore. We see more wild weather happening in times they usually don't happen. And the models seem to be getting worse instead of better with handling systems. 

If climate change means more summers like the one we've had this year, I'm going to seriously have to consider moving north.

[metalicwx366]

Fail for Euro in the Atlantic. Big win for Euro in West Pacific with this Sandy Scenario. Model never waivered and consistently showed this potential.

[Brick Tamland]

Going to be interesting to see how the models do this winter. They all just seem to be getting worse and worse more than a couple of days out unless the only type of weather we have a chance of seeing is sunny and dry.

[SN_Lover]

You know you had a bad summer, when you walk out and humidity doesn't even phase you anymore. 

[weatherwiz]

Many of you may know (or not know) but a tradition dating back to eastern days (maybe longer?) has been an NFL pick em contest run in the sports forum.  The schedule for each week is posted typically sometime on Tuesday and participants quote the post, bold the teams they think will win, predict a tiebreaker score for the Monday night game, and the weekly/season standings are then posted on Tuesday as well.  This contest is free.  

However, last year we introduced a pay pick-em league.  This league is run using yahoo and at the end of the season the top 3 people win money (65% for 1st, 25% for 2nd, 10% for 3rd).  We are hoping to get as many people as possible to join...the more people the higher the payouts.  We will also be doing weekly winners with that payout all dependent on how many are signed up...but think $10 per week unless we have a ton of sign-ups.  

Anyways if you're interested further details are in the pinned thread on the sports side...below is the link

[Avdave]

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Many of you may know (or not know) but a tradition dating back to eastern days (maybe longer?) has been an NFL pick em contest run in the sports forum.  The schedule for each week is posted typically sometime on Tuesday and participants quote the post, bold the teams they think will win, predict a tiebreaker score for the Monday night game, and the weekly/season standings are then posted on Tuesday as well.  This contest is free.  

However, last year we introduced a pay pick-em league.  This league is run using yahoo and at the end of the season the top 3 people win money (65% for 1st, 25% for 2nd, 10% for 3rd).  We are hoping to get as many people as possible to join...the more people the higher the payouts.  We will also be doing weekly winners with that payout all dependent on how many are signed up...but think $10 per week unless we have a ton of sign-ups.  

Anyways if you're interested further details are in the pinned thread on the sports side...below is the link

WIZ!!!! whats up man, Hope you are doing well. Im in the league and ready for week 1

[NWNC2015]

I'm so under-prepared. I've never done a 15 page paper before in my life. I'm use to like 5 max sometimes 8 once in a blue moon. 

[jburns]

41 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

I'm so under-prepared. I've never done a 15 page paper before in my life. I'm use to like 5 max sometimes 8 once in a blue moon. 

 

lol  I've had 5 pages of bibliography.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Atlanta is at 69 days of 90+. Only 21 more days to go to tie the record number of 90+ days.

[lookingnorth]

47 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Atlanta is at 69 days of 90+. Only 21 more days to go to tie the record number of 90+ days.

Unless they have a record hot September I don't think it's gonna happen.

[metalicwx366]

The Euro is the worst. Lol. I won't be surprised if Lionrock doesn't get captured with the model back off each run. GFS may win again. Still looking likely though that it may be captured.

[metalicwx366]

Looks like Leslie and Madeline are headed towards Hawaii according to the models. Since the models are showing this hitting Hawaii now, they will be probably be about 200 miles north or south of here in a few days.

[buckeyefan1]

On 8/27/2016 at 1:52 AM, metalicwx366 said:

Looks like Leslie and Madeline are headed towards Hawaii according to the models. Since the models are showing this hitting Hawaii now, they will be probably be about 200 miles north or south of here in a few days.

It looks like the reverse psychology is paying off    

[metalicwx366]

1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It looks like the reverse psychology is paying off    

Lol. Two major hurricanes headed towards us. Madeline looks like it may go to the south of us definitely. May hit the big island though. Lester is the one to watch. Crazy how Hawaii has only been directly impacted by 3 named TC I believe in the last 30 years and 2 of them have been in the last 3 years. Darby and Iselle.

[NWNC2015]

lord if i ever become a professor im going to assign just as much homework that was due tonight for me so they can feel my headache and sleepyness 

[Brick Tamland]

Why can't we ever get that big of a NW shift when it comes to winter storms here like we are seeing with Hermine?

[calculus1]

14 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Why can't we ever get that big of a NW shift when it comes to winter storms here like we are seeing with Hermine?

What do you mean?  We always get a NW shift on winter storms.  That's why the further north and west you are in the Carolinas, the better your chances for winter precipitation.  Hickory typically does much better than Wilmington in the snowfall department.

We often start out with Columbia, Charlotte, and Raleigh all in the mix for snow, but eventually we know it will reduce back to north of I-40 and west of I-77.

[Cold Rain]

20 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

What do you mean?  We always get a NW shift on winter storms.  That's why the further north and west you are in the Carolinas, the better your chances for winter precipitation.  Hickory typically does much better than Wilmington in the snowfall department.

We often start out with Columbia, Charlotte, and Raleigh all in the mix for snow, but eventually we know it will reduce back to north of I-40 and west of I-77.

Yeah really.  We ALWAYS are talking about the inevitable NW shift.  Every winter.  Somebody's apparently been T-balled one too many times!

[Cold Rain]

First guess:

[NWNC2015]

call the law see if i care

[calculus1]

15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

First guess:

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Lol I see that most of the drought areas are going to get shafted.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

71 straight days that ATL has failed to get below 70 degrees. That pretty much obliterates the old record. Also, 74 days of 90+. 16 more days to go to tie the record.

[lookingnorth]

I kind of wish college started a few weeks later so I could experience whatever effects TS Hermine has on the Triangle.

[Cold Rain]

2 hours ago, calculus1 said:

Wilkes and I need to have a MS Paint-off this Winter.  We need some ground rules and some judges.

[gwlee7]

Won't he have too much homework to do paint offs this year?  From what I have read, he has to write papers and stuff.  

[jburns]

Well, damn.  There was just a 7.1 quake off the New Zealand coast. Just texted my daughter and waiting for a response. Hopefully it was far enough off. She isn't close to the coast so no tidal worries.

[Avdave]

1 hour ago, jburns said:

Well, damn.  There was just a 7.1 quake off the New Zealand coast. Just texted my daughter and waiting for a response. Hopefully it was far enough off. She isn't close to the coast so no tidal worries.

Wow that will shake things up some. Hope she is ok Jburns