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Texas heavy rainfall and flooding event May 31 into early June

janetjanet998

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
Posted

This might deserve a thread of its own

 

Soil moisture very high due to heavy rains the past year and in the short term...

 

Rivers and lakes very high..

 

Lake Medina west of San Antonio already flooding over the spillway after 10 inches of rain  late last week...

 

 

Rivers around houston in flood ,some major, after 12-18 inches just north and west of the Metro last week(same areas got 10-15 inches in April)

 

Lakes and rivers around the dallas-FTW areas in flood or above normal

 

an upper level low will stall over Texas This week

 

DFW just issued

 

THE BIGGER THREAT WILL QUICKLY BECOME FLASH FLOODING AS RICH LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND A MOISTENING OF THE  
ATMOSPHERE ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. PW VALUES AROUND 1.5  
INCHES THIS MORNING WILL APPROACH 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVERNIGHT  
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER  
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE TROPICAL IN  
NATURE. SOME OF OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY  
RAINFALL AND WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK...A  
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NORTH AND  
CENTRAL TX THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED IN  
AREA AND TIME WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES.  

 

 

SAT 

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...  
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND THEN DRIFTS  
OR MEANDERS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE  
GFS SHOWS IT SLOWLY PULLING AWAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHILE THE  
ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE YESTERDAY'S  
MODEL RUNS KEPT THE FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA, THE LATEST RUNS BRING  
IT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH THESE  
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS, PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO INCREASE,  
AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK OR EVEN THIS WEEKEND SHOULD  
THE SYSTEM SLOW AS THE ECMWF INDICATE. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A  
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO ATTAIN WARM CORE CHARACTERISTICS WHICH  
ALONG WITH ELEVATED OR SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD LEAD TO COPIOUS  
MAINLY NIGHTTIME RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0274  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
107 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHERN TX...FAR SOUTHERN OK  
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY  
 
VALID 311700Z - 312300Z  
 
SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN  
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW CELL  
MOTION WILL PROMOTE FLASH FLOODING.  
 
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ARE DEVELOPING AND  
EXPANDING COVERAGE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS...STRETCHING  
FROM THE HILL COUNTRY NORTH TO RED RIVER. ALREADY SEEING NUMEROUS  
OVERSHOOTING TOPS AS PER THE GOES-OTD ALGORITHM...AND THE  
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSIVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
ENTERING WEST TX...AS DEPICTED BY A 0856Z AQUA-MODIS PASS...AND  
WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.  
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FOCUSING A BROADLY DIVERGENT FLOW PATTERN  
ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX CURRENTLY...AND IS  
INTERACTING WITH A WELL-DEFINED N/S AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG  
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.  
 
RAP ANALYSES SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND PWATS OF  
1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES...WHICH COUPLED TOGETHER WILL BE FAVORING  
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER  
OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES/HR. THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FEED WILL BE  
REINFORCED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BY ADDITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING AND  
A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH.  
 
THE 12Z ARW AND 12Z NMMB BOTH INDICATE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL MAY  
BE UNDERDOING THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE BASED ON  
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTION TO  
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY A BIT MORE THROUGH  
MID-AFTERNOON AS STRONG INSTABILITY FOCUSES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER  
AND DOWN THROUGH THE TX HILL COUNTRY. SEVERAL AREAS OF  
CELL-MERGERS AND OVERSHOOTING TOPS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL  
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL RATES FURTHER.  
 
THE GENERAL THINKING IS THAT THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS UNDERDONE WITH  
THEIR AMOUNTS IN THE SHORT-TERM. BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND  
RADAR TRENDS...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH 22Z OF 3 TO 6  
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE MERGING CLUSTERS OF  
CONVECTION OCCUR. GIVEN THE LOCALLY WET ANTECEDENT  
CONDITIONS...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.  

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
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I fear this week will become noteworthy for some areas of catastrophic flooding but we won't know where until a few hours in advance or until the rains are underway. For example - an MCV underway in Uvalde and Bandera counties are producing 3-5" hourly rain totals just west of San Antonio and Hondo. These warm-core lows have produced major flooding in past years but that was during dry periods. Rivers are in flood, lakes are full and releasing, and soils are saturated. I fear we're going to have massive issues this week. Its just a matter of where and how many. 

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Msalgado

Msalgado

Posted
Posted

I remember 2002 and 1997(98?)  15-35 inches of rain over 5 days

 

but i think it was dry the months before those dates

 

radar just ugly right now for San Antonio and Austin upstream basins

 

wow

 

The amount of great flood events in the past 20 years in this area of South Texas is quite high.  I remember 1998 and 2002 as well.  The Medina River was so incredibly wide just south of my place on 1604 south of 90.

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

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3-5 inches did fall over parts of the north metroplex the past 24 hours

 

PRESTON ROAD @ OLIVE 4.84 IN 0628 PM 05/31 ALERT  
2 WSW PLANO 4.69 IN 0700 AM 06/01 COCORAHS

 

 2 NW ROWLETT 4.52 IN 0806 AM 06/01 CWOP  

2 E COPPELL 3.95 IN 0715 AM 06/01 HADS  
WHITEROCK CREEK @ WESGROVE 3.94 IN 0549 AM 06/01 ALERT

 

DENTON COUNTY  
 
6 NW KRUM 5.02 IN 1044 PM 05/31 CWOP  
2 SW KRUM 4.55 IN 0810 AM 06/01 CWOP 

 

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted

I almost never look in this section, but I feel for you guys in the Houston area especially.   They could really get annihilated from now till Sunday. 

 

The hit or miss nature of not knowing exactly where the 'training' will occur...is what's prevented this story from getting major attention so far.   But I can't see how more rivers around the Houston area won't hit record levels with this set up.   

 

Other areas as well, but harder to predict with the exact hit/miss setup.  

 

EDIT: new GFS - Houston = still ground zero.  Dallas could get into it too.

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

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MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NW CNW 20 SE TRL 10 SSW 4F4 30 NE OCH 20 SE LFK 25 ENE CXO
30 SSE 11R 20 WSW VCT 20 ESE BKS 25 NW MFE 55 SSW HBV LRD
40 SSE MMPG 15 SSE DLF 25 NW DRT 25 E 6R6 45 WSW E29 25 NW JCT
35 SSE BWD 25 NW CNW.


..SOUTHERN PLAINS...

IT MAY BE SOME TIME BEFORE HEAVY RAIN REDEVELOPS TOWARD CENTRAL
AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT THAT WITH ANOTHER DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE...AN MCS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP IN THE STRONGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER JET REGION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...WITH
EVENTUAL MOTION INTO WHAT SHOULD BE A REPLENISHED AXIS OF AT LEAST
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWARD. THIS
NOTION SUPPORTS THE MODERATE RISK THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN IN
PLACE. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS FORMING
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION AS A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH SLIDES INTO EAST
TEXAS AND TOWARD ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. FLOW IS RELATIVELY
WEAK...SO THIS CONVECTION MAY REMAIN RAGGED...BUT THE HRRR
SUGGESTS DECENT COVERAGE OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND SOME OF
THIS REGION HAS SEEMINGLY UNPRECEDENTED WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...WILL EXPAND THE MODERATE RISK OVER INTO EAST
TEXAS...REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE HOUSTON
METRO...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY EXPECTED
ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST...AS WAS ALREADY OCCURRING THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOCUS IS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAD STALLED
IN OKLAHOMA BACK TO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A DIFLUENCE
MAXIMUM IS DEPICTED HERE IN THE RAP AND GFS...ALMOST A COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE...WITH CORRESPONDING QPF SIGNAL FROM MOST MODELS. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SMALLER IN SCALE...BUT CELL MOTIONS ARE
FORECAST AT ONLY ZERO TO TEN KNOTS...CAUSING CONCERN FOR FLASH
FLOODING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

WE CARRIED THE SLIGHT RISK BACK WESTWARD TO CAPTURE THE AREA
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW...AFFECTING
NM/TX. PART OF THIS WAS MOTIVATED BY THE 06Z NAM CONUS
NEST...WHICH OFFERED ONE OF THE BETTER SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO
EARLY MORNING TRENDS. A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT IS
FORECAST IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL KEEP THIS AREA...AND
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAIN...AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT
WITH A SLOW DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A PRE-EXISTENT MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS JET DIFLUENCE
MAXIMUM.

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1900hurricane

1900hurricane

Posted
Posted

Are there no river gauges in the Lubbock area?  they've been gettin slammed all day.

There really aren't. That area is technically in Brazos River drainage, but due to various factors, the streams there are rarely contributing.

 

Tmk7bET.png

 

With that said, MCVs like that one are going to need to be watched over the next few days, particularly overnight.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

I follow an FD's FB page down there, and the Brazos River near Rosharon is now forecast to rise to 53 feet and stay there through at least Monday, or longer. Crazy. Haven't they had at least 2 major flood events there in the last 2 months?

Yes the area north of I-10 between Austin and Houston got crushed twice in the last 2 months.

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Scott747

Scott747

Posted
Posted

I follow an FD's FB page down there, and the Brazos River near Rosharon is now forecast to rise to 53 feet and stay there through at least Monday, or longer. Crazy. Haven't they had at least 2 major flood events there in the last 2 months?

Nothing like this. They have evacuated two of the prision units near Rosharon and likely will do a third tomorrow as Oyster Creek is rising to unprecedented levels.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

looks like Texas got out of the woods pretty unscathed compared to what could of happened. The big ? was not knowing where the training would setup. 

Not really:

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/militaryintelligence/2016/06/05/fort-hood-soldiers-killed-training-accident/85442498/

 

Where I am, things weren't that bad, but there were places that were hit much worse. Fort Hood's about an hour drive north of me. 

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