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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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stormwarn

stormwarn

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

You're all better off walking away from this for the next two days. It has virtually no chance of developing until the weekend. 

This is the most sensible post on here. This system needs to get away from Hispanola before anything appreciable will happen. The mountains there can disrupt a well defined hurricanes. e.g. David 79' 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
Just now, Morris said:

Of course. But the Euro hasn't really been too consistent. Once in a while the GFS scores a coup. It happens.

I'm not saying that the Euro is correct, but the far majority of models develop 99L into at least a tropical storm. The GFS insists that it remains an un-closed area of disturbed weather. A few mets have chimed in as to why they think the GFS solution is suspect.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
Just now, Morris said:

Are we looking at the same model?

The Euro caved on intensity big time. It's closer to the GFS now than to the previous Euro runs. 1004 at 114

The GFS has a disorganized area of showers that dissipate near Cuba.

The Euro has an organized system in the Eastern Gulf.

The intensity forecast is going to be way off at this point. The important thing is that it maintains a storm.

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Morris

Morris

Posted
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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS has a disorganized area of showers that dissipate near Cuba.

The Euro has an organized system in the Eastern Gulf.

The intensity forecast is going to be way off at this point. The important thing is that it maintains a storm.

By the Euro standards this is a dramatic change. It almost never caves completely in a single run.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
Just now, Morris said:

By the Euro standards this is a dramatic change. It almost never caves completely in a single run.

It backed off on the intensity but it also keeps the center over water for a longer period of time. We're ridiculously early in the game at this stage. So many things could happen in the next three days; all with major implications. The LLC could end up drifting into Cuba, or it could get hung up over Florida, or it could get into the very warm waters of the Western Bahamas and camp out for a few days. This thing is in no hurry. 

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