tdp146 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Keep these in mind if we get into the gulf. Deepest, warmest water is in the western gulf with a shallower pool of warm water in the central-eastern region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Gaston keeps on going west on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 HWRF has landfalling tropical storm Sun PM near Miami. https://t.co/HnemsusJxn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 When Fiona was probably forecast it was suppose to get Bermuda,then suddenly a due west course was shown.. then Gaston stated to appear to shift more and more west. Doubt it will lead to much but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 If strong Gaston keeps trending W it will weaken the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 2 hours ago, NortheastPAWx said: Ugh, that one. Closest I ever saw to total disaster in my lifetime back in NEPA, right up there with the 1996 flood event. I believe Irene was a month prior. That was the worst I've seen it here in the HV. FEMA was cutting checks left and right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 NAVGEM shifts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 22 minutes ago, snywx said: I believe Irene was a month prior. That was the worst I've seen it here in the HV. FEMA was cutting checks left and right Irene and Lee were within two weeks of each other with Lee being the salt poured into the open wound of Irene in our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 1 hour ago, snywx said: I believe Irene was a month prior. That was the worst I've seen it here in the HV. FEMA was cutting checks left and right Floyd was worse down here than Irene, we kinda got lucky with it. The further north you went the worse it got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 16 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Floyd was worse down here than Irene, we kinda got lucky with it. The further north you went the worse it got. Irene was by far the worst IMBY. 13" of rain in about 10 hours which led to all the local area rivers hitting record crests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 1 hour ago, snywx said: I believe Irene was a month prior. That was the worst I've seen it here in the HV. FEMA was cutting checks left and right Irene gave us some heavy rain and wind. Some flash flooding and damage but not too bad. Lee, though, really did a number on interior PA. I was at PSU-Hazleton at the time and I couldn't go home that weekend because Wilkes-Barre was under a mandatory evacuation order. PSUH itself was shut down for two days because of the amount of commuting students and professors who just had no way to get to campus. The W-B Susquehanna actually crested above the Agnes record, but it was revealed the levee actually had protection to 44 feet instead of the commonly accepted 41. I remember that Friday morning, the Emergency Alert System went off and I honestly thought the levees had broken... AVP recorded 3.73" from Irene and 6.03" from Lee; September 2011 proved to be the wettest month ever recorded with 11.46". The events both keyed our wettest year on record with 60.00" exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 No major changes on the NAM. Still develops it. Slightly north and slightly weaker from the last run. Similar overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 14 minutes ago, Morris said: No major changes on the NAM. Still develops it. Slightly north and slightly weaker from the last run. Similar overall. Why are you using that joke of a model, especially at this stage of the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 20 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Why are you using that joke of a model, especially at this stage of the game? Because it runs first. Anyone want to post the 0z model runs of the hurricane suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Big shift west. See saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 18z for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 14 minutes ago, Morris said: Big shift west. See saw South as well.. Most of those look to go either through MIA or the keys into the Gulf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 1 hour ago, NortheastPAWx said: Irene gave us some heavy rain and wind. Some flash flooding and damage but not too bad. Lee, though, really did a number on interior PA. I was at PSU-Hazleton at the time and I couldn't go home that weekend because Wilkes-Barre was under a mandatory evacuation order. PSUH itself was shut down for two days because of the amount of commuting students and professors who just had no way to get to campus. The W-B Susquehanna actually crested above the Agnes record, but it was revealed the levee actually had protection to 44 feet instead of the commonly accepted 41. I remember that Friday morning, the Emergency Alert System went off and I honestly thought the levees had broken... AVP recorded 3.73" from Irene and 6.03" from Lee; September 2011 proved to be the wettest month ever recorded with 11.46". The events both keyed our wettest year on record with 60.00" exactly. That period here featured three extreme rainfalls with over 9" from Aug 14th-16th, including 8.65" on the 14th alone...then Irene on the 27th-28th with 8", followed by Lee on Sept 6th-8th with another 4.85". Monthly rainfall record in August of 21.53" with a 30 day total of 25.50". Also a record yearly total of 73.11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Still nothing major on the gfs. Nam would pound the coast of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Still nothing major on the gfs. Nam would pound the coast of Florida. GFS is very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Gaston is a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 0z GGEM shifted east and it makes landfall on the east coast of Florida and goes through Florida and up the west coast of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 0z Ukie has the low going across Florida and then hitting the gulf coast. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Expecting to wake up to see the Euro caved to the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 22 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 0z Ukie has the low going across Florida and then hitting the gulf coast. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 And pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Convection blowing up over center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 4 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: When Fiona was probably forecast it was suppose to get Bermuda,then suddenly a due west course was shown.. then Gaston stated to appear to shift more and more west. Doubt it will lead to much but who knows I'm hoping he gets between 60-65W and becomes a major delivering some nice swells for the east coast. It seems like models are again underestimating some of these ridges, so I wouldn't be shocked if Bermuda gets in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 25, 2016 Share Posted August 25, 2016 Easy update. 0z Euro, 6z NAM and GFS are pretty much identical to their previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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