2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[Morris]

Major changes

[MJO812]

Euro is further east and very Ukie like ( track wise )

Pounds the west coast of Florida and stalls there

[Brian5671]

big changes on the euro-cat 4 into LA to weak but prolific rain producer into FLA.   Unusual to see such a dramatic change in 12 hrs on the Euro....dynamic situation and will change 10 more times.  Storm doesnt even really develop until 4 days from now-it could completely dissipate by then given its ragged appearance now.

[Morris]

Makes another landfall near Tampa.

[NJwx85]

10-20" of rain over almost the entirety of the state of FL. Only exception are areas North and East of Orlando and the far Western panhandle. 

Then it looks to come right up the coast with moisture reaching our area as early as Wednesday while the system is still near the FL/GA line.

[Morris]

983mb into the panhandle.

[nesussxwx]

 

 

[nesussxwx]

[nesussxwx]

Cat 1 into the Big Bend, most likely.

[Stormlover74]

Such a huge run to run shift. Not even close to any consensus

[ForestHillWx]

Somewhat banterish, and obviously this is going to change, but even 10-20" of rain in a state, which by and large is a massive sandbar, would it not be the best case scenario, as opposed to striking New Orleans, aka an upside down bucket of a city? The roads will flood, but if there is one state, aside from Louisiana almost designed to handle mass quantities of water, it would be Florida imho. Thoughts?

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Such a huge run to run shift. Not even close to any consensus

Long way to go on this one.  (unless it falls apart in the next day or two which is possible in my opinion)

[NJwx85]

Just a ridiculous amount of rain from Miami, all the way around FL, up the West coast of FL, into the Big Bend, through GA, SC, NC and extreme SE VA. Secondary max of 10"+ near OBX.

[nesussxwx]

Weird run for sure.. later in the run

 

[Morris]

What is it going to do once it exits the east coast at southern NC?

[Jason WX]

Anywhere along the east and gulf coast has to watch this.

[Brian5671]

Just now, Morris said:

What is it going to do once it exits the east coast at southern NC?

heads ENE out to sea

[nesussxwx]

2 minutes ago, Morris said:

What is it going to do once it exits the east coast at southern NC?

Slides OTS.

[Morris]

Strengthening again off of NC.

[NJwx85]

Passes us close enough to brush the SNJ coast with the far outer bands. And ten days away. If this happened verbatim it would be a historic storm.

[Jason WX]

Euro sort of looks like Hurricane Donna but further west

[Jason WX]

2 minutes ago, Jason WX said:

Euro sort of looks like Hurricane Donna but further west

Track, not intensity. 

[nesussxwx]

big shift east. 18z initilization

 

[Morris]

8 minutes ago, UnionWX said:

big shift east. 18z initilization

 

And the vast majority never have it as a hurricane.

[nesussxwx]

Animated 12z JMA and 12z EURO

 

 

[Morris]

NAM is 998 east of the Carribeans at 84 . A little south.

[Morris]

EPS is way west of OP.

[Morris]

GFS very similar through 78.

[NortheastPAWx]

7 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Normally the NAM is completely useless when it comes to tropical systems. In this case, it fits fairly decently into the model consensus with a location near the Bahamas in about 4 days and a ridge located over the Eastern US and Western Atlantic. The ridge is also building, shunting the trough well West into the Northern Plains. If this occurred verbatim, I see no way to miss a landfall on the East coast of Florida. 

Locally, we typically have less impacts when tropical systems landfall in the gulf, but with the ridge placement, it's possible that the remnants could track up the Apps. 

See TS Lee 2011.

Ugh, that one.  Closest I ever saw to total disaster in my lifetime back in NEPA, right up there with the 1996 flood event.

[Morris]

Even weaker on the GFS.