2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, Jason WX said:

NAM is stronger and more N

The ridge is going to prevent this storm from coming up unless it breaks down. The tropics continue to look very active moving forward.

[NJwx85]

To bring it up the coast you're going to need the trough building into the Northern plains around day four to strengthen and weaken the ridge some. That's extremely unlikely at this point since most of the guidance has continued to strengthen the ridge.

In terms of local impacts in the greater NYC area, I think we're looking at some remnant rains at best in 7-10 days.

[Morris]

 

[NJwx85]

The 12z GFS still says no go. It just has an unorganized area of moisture near the Bahamas in three days.

[Jason WX]

Gaston seems to be trending further west each run.

[Jason WX]

 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, Jason WX said:

Gaston seems to be trending further west each run.

doesn't really matter.  It's a 1000 miles east of bermuda-not much of a threat to anything other than ships and fishes

[Jason WX]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

What trends are you hoping for exactly? This isn't going to come up the coast, at least not before entering the GOM.

We don't need this hitting Louisiana. Hopefully It stays away from it. And this wont come up the coast.

[Brian5671]

One wildcard...if that COC develops further south, then the storm has a greater chance of moving too close to Hispanola-the hurricane grave yard.

[nesussxwx]

12z GFS shifted Gaston a good 200-300 miles WSW. Probably what is messing up 99L from hitting Florida. The GFS has been shifting Gaston more and more west over the past day or so. Fish storm for us.. but that would be good news for FL/LA.

 

Edit: looking at it again.. it shifted Gaston 500-600 miles WSW comparing it to the former 6z run... highly unlikely.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, UnionWX said:

12z GFS shifted Gaston a good 200-300 miles WSW. Probably what is messing up 99L from hitting Florida. The GFS has been shifting Gaston more and more west over the past day or so. Fish storm for us.. but that would be good news for FL/LA.

I'd wait for the Euro before buying into ANY GFS tropical solution.

[nesussxwx]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

I'd wait for the Euro before buying into ANY GFS tropical solution.

Once the EURO locks in, it barely wavers.. I expect the same solution (FL hit, GOM hit) from the EURO. EURO is the king of the tropics, that's for sure.

[wxeyeNH]

Looking at the vis loop at 1230pm east time the convection on the south side of the system has collapsed.  Looking ENE of PR you can really see the circulation.  If that becomes the center it will safely go NE of PR.  So far few thunderstorms around that center, it will be interesting to see when or if they fire up.

[nesussxwx]

GFS rides this up just east of the Carolina coast... it's lost. 1011MB. Weak sauce.

[nesussxwx]

12z Ukmet never really ejects it into the Gulf. Rides the west coast of Florida as a weak rainmaker.

-ag3

[nesussxwx]

Hearing the LLC has been confirmed?

[MJO812]

Very weak on the CMC

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Very weak on the CMC

Anthony, it's actually 998mb landfall near Mobile Bay, looks fairly organized too.

[nesussxwx]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

That's wrong

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

 

That's the 0z UKMET if I'm not mistaken.

[Morris]

 

[MJO812]

Just now, UnionWX said:

That's the 0z UKMET if I'm not mistaken.

Yep, my bad. I deleted it.

Here is the 12z run

 

[NJwx85]

I think we may have a bingo. KJUA radar picking up on what appears to be a closed circulation just North of St Croix.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[MJO812]

Fwiw,

Florida Panhandle hit on the Navgem

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2016082412&prod=prp&tau=168&set=All

[nesussxwx]

12z UKMET

 

 

 

[Jason WX]

We'll see what the Euro says in 42 minutes.

[MJO812]

The Weather Channel just said that the system is developing further south than forecasted. Then they said that the path of this storm will be different than originally thought.

[wxeyeNH]

15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The Weather Channel just said that the system is developing further south than forecasted. Then they said that the path of this storm will be different than originally thought.

I don't see that.  With Euro just coming out why wouldn't they just wait half an hour before saying anything about the path of the "possible" storm.  I would think that would be the responsible thing to do.

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I don't see that.  With Euro just coming out why wouldn't they just wait half an hour before saying anything about the path of the "possible" storm.  I would think that would be the responsible thing to do.

Its The Weather Channel...that sums it up for me.

[NJwx85]

12z Euro update - Landfall as a weak TS in far SE Florida on Sunday. Looks to be deepening once in the Gulf.

[NJwx85]

Stalled right along the FL West coast for several days. Catastrophic rainfall.