2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[Sportybx]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Can someone post the knew cone from nhc? I can't copy it on my moble 

 Reply to this topic...

[Rjay]

Lol

[Stormlover74]

19 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Lol

 

WTF?

[dmillz25]

And now we have hurricane Nicole

[Rtd208]

10 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

And now we have hurricane Nicole

Possible Fujiwhara effect??

[Morris]

NHC now forecasting Nicole to become cat 2 later. Real overperfomer.

[NortheastPAWx]

49 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

And now we have hurricane Nicole

Geez. Thought it was supposed to fizzle after weak TS status.

[NortheastPAWx]

Watch Nicole become a threat to the region after all this

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

29 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Watch Nicole become a threat to the region after all this

 

 

29 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Watch Nicole become a threat to the region after all this

Nicole is now forecast to 100mph. It was never supposed to be more then a low end sheared trop storm. This is a perfect example of how far we have to go with intensity forecast 

[Eduardo]

Can anyone offer a scientific explanation as to why Nicole and Matt both managed to form and strengthen in the face of what looked to be inhibitive shear??

At the very least, definitely some nice satellite shots in the days ahead as these two do their dance.

[MJO812]

King Lbar

[Morris]

Hurricane Nicole advisory 12 issued. Nicole becomes a category two hurricane. https://t.co/VqHn0uj6EM

[Stormlover74]

Looks now like the eye will stay off the coast

[wthrmn654]

Took the day off from weather, didn't think I'd see models shifting north today? More heading north east compared to yesterday? Jeez and Nicole wow

[Morris]

Tropical Storm Nicole advisory 14 issued. Nicole rapidly weakens to a tropical storm https://t.co/VqHn0uj6EM

[ForestHillWx]

Not sure how accurate the maps at the null school site are, but the 250 upper air depiction is fantastic. 250hPa

[NJwx85]

An ever so slight tick NW with the rain shield on the 12z GFS. Far enough NW this run to get moderate rain into Cape May.

[NJwx85]

You can see the squeeze play going on between the moisture associated with Matthew coming North and the cold front moving East, which at the moment appears to be winning.

[snow1]

Is the storm trending north every run?

[NJwx85]

Odd's of getting into some of the heavier rains have increased, albeit slightly since yesterday.

[NJwx85]

The 18z NAM is hinting at washout potential for tomorrow. The rain looks to remain on the light side, but fairly widespread. 

[Metsfan]

36 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 18z NAM is hinting at washout potential for tomorrow. The rain looks to remain on the light side, but fairly widespread. 

Classic case of a cold front interacting with moisture. No big deal.

[NJwx85]

14 minutes ago, Metsfan said:

Classic case of a cold front interacting with moisture. No big deal.

It doesn't have to be a big deal to ruin the day. I have a 12:10 tee time tomorrow and most modeles were showing nothing more than scattered showers, so it can make a difference if things trend wetter.

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It doesn't have to be a big deal to ruin the day. I have a 12:10 tee time tomorrow and most modeles were showing nothing more than scattered showers, so it can make a difference if things trend wetter.

18z gfs shifted slightly more north with Matthew. Not out of the woods yet but time is running out.

[BxEngine]

2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The 18z NAM is hinting at washout potential for tomorrow. The rain looks to remain on the light side, but fairly widespread. 

Composite tends to way overdo light stuff, the 1km sim is nothing like that, and the model is showing less than .10 for most spots for that time period (and barely more than that total)

[MJO812]

GFDL

Close but no cigar

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Composite tends to way overdo light stuff, the 1km sim is nothing like that, and the model is showing less than .10 for most spots for that time period (and barely more than that total)

And there's also this.  Rgem 12z vs 18z

[Rjay]

Historic flooding going on in SE Georgia.  

Hilton Head Island is taking a beating.

 

My friend in Savanah sent me this.  You can hear the winds roaring overhead.

 

 

Savanah-1.3gp

[IrishRob17]

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

Historic flooding going on in SE Georgia.  

Hilton Head Island is taking a beating.

 

My friend in Savanah sent me this.  You can hear the winds roaring overhead.

 

 

Savanah-1.3gp

My girlfriends family is in Richmond Hill GA, which is close to Savannah, they got 17-18" of rain, http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KSVN.html Thankfully they are ok this morning and no major flooding where there are, just messy outside with leaves and branches down. 

Edit: while their house is ok they are stranded in their neighborhood due to flooding on the roads in and out as well as the travel ban. 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Historic flooding going on in SE Georgia.  

Hilton Head Island is taking a beating.

My friend in Savanah sent me this.  You can hear the winds roaring overhead.

Savanah-1.3gp

New record high water level for the Fort Pulaski tide gauge just edging out Hurricane David in 1979.

 

Historic Crests
(1) 12.56 ft on 10/08/2016 (P)
(2) 12.21 ft on 09/04/1979
(3) 10.90 ft on 10/15/1947
(4) 10.50 ft on 08/11/1940
(5) 10.43 ft on 10/27/2015
(6) 10.30 ft on 12/03/1971
(7) 10.26 ft on 02/07/1993
(8) 10.07 ft on 06/23/2009
(9) 10.05 ft on 06/22/2009
(10) 9.99 ft on 09/16/2001
Show More Historic Crests 

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=fpkg1&wfo=chs