2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

We getting winds too?

30-50

[BxEngine]

 

well then. 

[NJwx85]

GGEM is a major hit. 4-5" of rain.

[NJwx85]

[NJwx85]

[Stormlover74]

We get 4" just from 06z to 12z Sunday

[Rtd208]

Major rains, that would pretty much take care of the drought.

[MJO812]

CMC crushes the whole northeast with a boatload of rain

[SnoSki14]

It doesn't have to come close to affect us as certain models show but once again the Euro has a lot to say. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It doesn't have to come close to affect us as certain models show but once again the Euro has a lot to say. 

It's the interaction with the trough as it comes up the coast that really causes the massive rain event on the models that show it. The GFS is timed/spaced out perfectly to create a flooding rain event for I-95. The Euro shows nothing because the trough and Matthew never interact. 

[MJO812]

Ukie is similiar to the GFS and GGEM

[snywx]

0z GFS..  Total precip at hr 138

[Dsnowx53]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's the interaction with the trough as it comes up the coast that really causes the massive rain event on the models that show it. The GFS is timed/spaced out perfectly to create a flooding rain event for I-95. The Euro shows nothing because the trough and Matthew never interact. 

 

The GFS also has a perfect dual jet streak in our area...left exit region from the jet streak to the south, and the right entrance region of the jet streak to the north. That, plus really nice convergence, plus tropical moisture, plus trough interaction = flooding rains.

 

 

 

 

[rcad1]

How much wind if any do with get along with the ton of rain based on the 0z GFS?  

[Dsnowx53]

Just now, rcad1 said:

How much wind if any do with get along with the ton of rain based on the 0z GFS?  

 

 

Most of us would gust to 60 mph or so (eastern Long Island would hit hurricane force), but these stronger winds would be after the heavy rain.

[RU848789]

Looks like the Euro against everyone else, lol.    For comparison purposes, the Euro is maybe 100 miles SW of the GFS's posiiton at 120 hours (7 pm Saturday, with the GFS in Albemarle Sound and the Euro along the NC coast, just about on top of Wilmington. But then at 144 hours (Sunday at 7 pm), the GFS is in Downeast Maine, while the Euro is 300 miles east of Norfolk. Huge divergence in that 24 hour period. Which model will be right? I have no idea, but I wouldn't bet against the Euro, even though it's just about all alone.  Going to be fascinating to watch the evolution of this storm...

[rcad1]

Bluewave 6z gfs looked about the same as the 0z run correct?  Thought it might have been a tiny bit east of 0z but I'm a rookie at looking at these models compared to you.

[IrishRob17]

7 minutes ago, rcad1 said:

Bluewave 6z gfs looked about the same as the 0z run correct?  Thought it might have been a tiny bit east of 0z but I'm a rookie at looking at these models compared to you.

The 6z GFS looked east of the 0z GFS up this way at least. 

[Allsnow]

The euro overnight def sped up. Which allowed for it to come further north 

[Rtd208]

There are obviously going to be run to run fluctuations on the models, I think the next 24-36 hrs worth of model runs are going to be very important since we are approaching crunch time now with the start of the event 4-4.5 days away for our area.

[NJwx85]

Compare the 00z ECMWF to the old 12z run from yesterday valid 00z Sunday. You will see how the 00z run last night dug the trough a lot more which helped to tug Mathew further North. It wasn't enough, but another move towards the GFS solution of a deeper trough.

[MJO812]

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice

Newest ECMWF HP Cluster showing 100% of members for #Matthew to landfall over #Florida as Cat 2-3, with 75% of members impacting #NYC ~120hr

[NJwx85]

[NJwx85]

Look familiar

[NJwx85]

For reference, we didn't get much rain with Hazel here, being East of the Center, but Battery Park did measure a 113MPH wind gust, which is still to date the highest wind speed ever recorded within the municipal boundaries of NYC.

[MJO812]

Hazel is still the top analog for this storm

[MJO812]

Hazel is still the top analog for this storm

[NJwx85]

Pulled the trigger on a storm specific thread for our area.

I think it would be good if we kept discussions about the Bahamas, Cuba, Haiti, Florida and the Carolinas in here and reserved the other thread for talk about the storm specifically for our area such as wind and rain. 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Can someone post the knew cone from nhc? I can't copy it on my moble 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Can someone post the knew cone from nhc? I can't copy it on my moble 

I did in the other thread