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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

Discounting the Euro is foolish.  It may not end up being right, but it's been right often enough as an outlier to be respected in these situations.  Plus, while I know we need the rain and weather weenies love wild weather, I'm selfishly rooting for a dry Saturday - Michigan at RU, tailgate, then 7 pm kickoff at Rutgers Stadium.  Sure, they'll likely take us to the woodshed, but I at least want to enjoy the tailgate...

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted

It's almost, if not as bad as winter in here right now. Live by the run die by the run. Anyone saying yep out to sea 6 days out is out of their mind. Here we go again with the emotional roller coaster. This is going to change a million times. Does anyone in here not put any weight in to the WPC!?! I think, they know what their doing over there and they are saying the globals have not been handling the trough properly. I'll listen to them and keep watching this play out 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It's almost, if not as bad as winter in here right now. Live by the run die by the run. Anyone saying yep out to sea 6 days out is out of their mind. Here we go again with the emotional roller coaster. This is going to change a million times. Does anyone in here not put any weight in to the WPC!?! I think, they know what their doing over there and they are saying the globals have not been handling the trough properly. I'll listen to them and keep watching this play out 

Agreed.  There's a good reason the NHC doesn't issue track forecasts more than every 6 hours - they do not want to get caught in modelology, responding to the various fluctuations in the models, as they know it's better to look at the longer term trends and the synoptic evolution every 6-12 hours vs. what was predicted for those timeframes.  People shouldn't be saying this or that "will" or "will not" 100% happen in this situation more than 5 days out - more likely/less likely are the words to use, but neither the UK nor Euro solutions for 5+ days out can be totally discounted right now.  Sure, we know Matthew isn't going to hit Jamaica or Key West and we know certain outcomes are extremely unlikely for our area (such as hooking into NJ, like Sandy did), but a wide range of other solutions is possible.  

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Animal

Animal

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

He's one of our resident trolls.

Please. You act as if the area gets hit by tropical storms every year.

Our area just does not get hit often.

My call - storm track well east of the area, decent waves for coastal area. Some coastal areas may approach 20-25 mph in higher gust.

The last coastal storm threat, we had people going nutz over a storm that was well east of the area. 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Animal said:

Please. You act as if the area gets hit by tropical storms every year.

Our area just does not get hit often.

My call - storm track well east of the area, decent waves for coastal area. Some coastal areas may approach 20-25 mph in higher gust.

The last coastal storm threat, we had people going nutz over a storm that was well east of the area. 

Apples to Oranges. And you have nothing to base your claims off of except the last few Euro runs which have decisively shifted further and further West.

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Animal said:

Please. You act as if the area gets hit by tropical storms every year.

Our area just does not get hit often.

My call - storm track well east of the area, decent waves for coastal area. Some coastal areas may approach 20-25 mph in higher gust.

The last coastal storm threat, we had people going nutz over a storm that was well east of the area. 

You very well may be right. In fact I'm thinking a similar solution. (Though a little closer and windier) I'm just pointing out writing this off entirely is ridiculous

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Animal

Animal

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You very well may be right. In fact I'm thinking a similar solution. (Though a little closer and windier) I'm just pointing out writing this off entirely is ridiculous

Alright. No worries. I just get concerned when usual suspects go ape poop over every storm. It is always wait until the next model runs etc. Further west, some random buoy or ship is reporting gust to 85 knots.

Anything is possible with this storm, I agree.

 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

crazy rain totals in Haiti with the slow movement: 

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
Eastern Jamaica...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 to 20 inches
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches,
isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches
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larrye

larrye

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Possible but with the right pattern , all bets are off.

OK. Sure "anything's possible". But again ... given climatology ... which basically says an extremely high percentage of hurricanes/tropical systems recurve and don't make it up to the NYC area (especially while still tropical) ... and given the current plots (as west as everything has shifted up to this point) ... is it THAT difficult to understand someone who states that the likelihood is that it's OTS? I get that it's still 4-5 days out, but ...

 

14L_tracks_00z.png

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Sportybx

Sportybx

Posted
Posted

Maybe the patterns are changing . The  Atlantic waters are warmer this year then in the past . earthquakes ( very minor ) popping up at least once a year over here now . The LI sound waters are 2.8 degrees warmer then they were 30 years ago . Warm water fish are now spawning up this way . believe it or not but hurricanes have been pushing up this way more up here in the last few years then down south . Maybe that's this problem these models aren't made long term . they do better 2-3 days out because storms like this aren't suppose to be lurking as long as they have been . Plus that's the fun on this site everyone goes bananas everyday till we are 36hrs out . Enjoy it have fun with it . love it cause no one knows what mother nature will bring at any given time 

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