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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

Interesting comment about the WPC not trusting the Euro's handling of the trough from the NWS in NYC: 

There are then differences in what happens next for the weekend into
early next week due to differences in the evolution of the sub-
tropical ridge and the handling of a trough of low pressure that
will move in from the west. The ECMWF erodes the sub-tropical ridge
more so than the GFS/CMC/UKMET and is also flatter with the trough
coming in from the west. The net effect is the ECMWF takes Matthew
out to sea this weekend, while most other solutions bring the storm
towards New England this weekend. It is noted that WPC does not, nor
has it for the past couple of days, like the ECMWF handling of the
trough coming in from the west. In deference to the expertise of WPC
in the long range, have adopted a non-ECMWF approach to Matthew.

For now, have kept Saturday dry, as there is a general trend towards
a slower progress of Matthew northward as it approaches, so figure
could see some slowing in the future as well. Do expect rapid
acceleration as the storm comes out of the NC Capes as it interacts
with the trough approaching from the west.  Do have chance pops for
rain Saturday night and Sunday, tapering to slight chance pops
Sunday night as Matthew probably is exiting to the NE into the
Canadian Maritimes.

There is the potential for a Predecessor Rain Band (PRE) with timing
in the late Saturday/sunday time frame most likely at this time.
This appears to have a decent chance of impacting the area, even if
Matthew stays to the south/east. If it occurs, then heavy rainfall
can be expected. The other likely impact is dangerous rip currents
and probable beach erosion at Atlantic Beaches.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Ukie

Disagree.  The Euro may not have been perfect for Hermine, but it nailed the most important part of the storm for MD/DE/NJ/NY and that was the extended run to the northeast on Sat/Sun and a later retrograde which would be too late for major impacts in our area, which is exactly what happened (while most/all of the other models had the retrograde much earlier leading to significant impacts).  Doesn't mean it's going to be right for Matthew, but discounting the best model is risky.  

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doncat

doncat

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Interesting comment about the WPC not trusting the Euro's handling of the trough from the NWS in NYC: 


There are then differences in what happens next for the weekend into
early next week due to differences in the evolution of the sub-
tropical ridge and the handling of a trough of low pressure that
will move in from the west. The ECMWF erodes the sub-tropical ridge
more so than the GFS/CMC/UKMET and is also flatter with the trough
coming in from the west. The net effect is the ECMWF takes Matthew
out to sea this weekend, while most other solutions bring the storm
towards New England this weekend. It is noted that WPC does not, nor
has it for the past couple of days, like the ECMWF handling of the
trough coming in from the west. In deference to the expertise of WPC
in the long range, have adopted a non-ECMWF approach to Matthew.

For now, have kept Saturday dry, as there is a general trend towards
a slower progress of Matthew northward as it approaches, so figure
could see some slowing in the future as well. Do expect rapid
acceleration as the storm comes out of the NC Capes as it interacts
with the trough approaching from the west.  Do have chance pops for
rain Saturday night and Sunday, tapering to slight chance pops
Sunday night as Matthew probably is exiting to the NE into the
Canadian Maritimes.

There is the potential for a Predecessor Rain Band (PRE) with timing
in the late Saturday/sunday time frame most likely at this time.
This appears to have a decent chance of impacting the area, even if
Matthew stays to the south/east. If it occurs, then heavy rainfall
can be expected. The other likely impact is dangerous rip currents
and probable beach erosion at Atlantic Beaches.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Hence this latest map from WPC

 

 

   precip.gif

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Disagree.  The Euro may not have been perfect for Hermine, but it nailed the most important part of the storm for MD/DE/NJ/NY and that was the extended run to the northeast on Sat/Sun and a later retrograde which would be too late for major impacts in our area, which is exactly what happened (while most/all of the other models had the retrograde much earlier leading to significant impacts).  Doesn't mean it's going to be right for Matthew, but discounting the best model is risky.  

Euro has been erratic so far with Matthew.

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