2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[Morris]

9 minutes ago, Jason WX said:

Big boy headed N from Bahamas near end of the run.

Lock it!

[Jason WX]

21 minutes ago, UnionWX said:

CMC is a NOLA hit. GFS has this bad boy recurving OTS after brushing the Florida coast. Ukmet hits SFL. Long days ahead. NAM starting to get into range..and oh, don't forget about the EURO..Long days ahead

 

Tracking the hurricane season is exciting. Just like winter.

[Morris]

0z Euro had a major hurricane making landfall on the TX/LA border.

[Morris]

GFS still nada.

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, Morris said:

GFS still nada.

Gefs also

[Rtd208]

28 minutes ago, Morris said:

0z Euro had a major hurricane making landfall on the TX/LA border.

That scenario could be disastrous especially for portions of LA that have received all of the rainfall and flooding recently.

[PB GFI]

I think you could be looking at a double US strike scenario. 

A 1 into Florida then a 3  into the central Gulf coast.

 

 

[Morris]

NHC upped chances to 60% in 48h, 80% in 5 days.

[Morris]

48 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

I think you are looking at a double US strike scenario. 

A 1 into Florida then a 3 into the central Gulf coast.

 

 

Welcome back

[wxeyeNH]

Looking at the vis. loop this morning.  Convection blob to the south but there is a rotating area north of that which is due east of PR.  Where would a center form, way south or that northern swirl?

[PB GFI]

1 hour ago, Morris said:

Welcome back

 

TY . Just been jammed . 

[MJO812]

[Morris]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Quite a few on the eastern cluster and none take it over Hispaniola.

[Morris]

More organized on the NAM through 60.

[NJwx85]

No real evidence of a closed circulation on KJUA radar. Outflow looks good on the Northern and Western sides, but it looks like some southeasterly shear could be affecting a bit on the Eastern side. I think we're still a good 2-3 days away from seeing something meaningful. 

[NortheastPAWx]

23 minutes ago, Morris said:

Quite a few on the eastern cluster and none take it over Hispaniola.

They were talking in the main thread on WFD about the development happening more south, further risking Hispaniola interaction. Thoughts?

[Morris]

 

[NJwx85]

Not sure if it was already posted or not.

06z HWRF 975mb landfall near Miami on Monday morning. Deepening from 987mb to 975mb in the last 12 hours prior to landfall.

06z GFDL 999mb near Grand Bahama on Monday morning.

[Jason WX]

NAM is stronger and more N

[Jason WX]

2 minutes ago, Jason WX said:

NAM is stronger and more N

Don't even know why I'm looking at it lol

[Morris]

2 minutes ago, Jason WX said:

NAM is stronger and more N

Way stronger. No comparison to previous run. 998mb at 84.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Jason WX said:

NAM is stronger and more N

Normally the NAM is completely useless when it comes to tropical systems. In this case, it fits fairly decently into the model consensus with a location near the Bahamas in about 4 days and a ridge located over the Eastern US and Western Atlantic. The ridge is also building, shunting the trough well West into the Northern Plains. If this occurred verbatim, I see no way to miss a landfall on the East coast of Florida. 

Locally, we typically have less impacts when tropical systems landfall in the gulf, but with the ridge placement, it's possible that the remnants could track up the Apps. 

See TS Lee 2011.

[Jason WX]

3 minutes ago, Morris said:

Way stronger. No comparison to previous run. 998mb at 84.

More N too. A trend?

[Morris]

[NJwx85]

While we're killing time waiting for the GFS

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Jason WX said:

More N too. A trend?

It really doesn't matter how far North it gets in the medium range. It's not going to come up the coast with that ridge building in off the East coast. A stronger ridge would only mean an even more favorable environment aloft as it cruises Westward towards FL. 

Nobody wants to throw out the obvious analogs here, but the track does look eerily similar.

[Jason WX]

hoping for trends with the 12z runs..

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Jason WX said:

hoping for trends with the 12z runs..

What trends are you hoping for exactly? This isn't going to come up the coast, at least not before entering the GOM.

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It really doesn't matter how far North it gets in the medium range. It's not going to come up the coast with that ridge building in off the East coast. A stronger ridge would only mean an even more favorable environment aloft as it cruises Westward towards FL. 

Nobody wants to throw out the obvious analogs here, but the track does look eerily similar.

Agree...it's going to turn sharply west once that ridge builds in.   This will improve the environment and we could see a big ramp up once the turn to the west has occurred...not saying this is an Andrew, but here's the track of Andrew-note the turn west once the ridge built in and subsequent rapid instensification once it turned due west.

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[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree...it's going to turn sharply west once that ridge builds in.   This will improve the environment and we could see a big ramp up once the turn to the west has occurred...not saying this is an Andrew, but here's the track of Andrew-note the turn west once the ridge built in and subsequent rapid instensification once it turned due west.

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I think the track more closely mirrors Katrina; intensity wise too. Katrina was probably stronger than a CAT 1 when it landfalled in SE FL. I remember Jim Cantore saying that it was the strongest CAT 1 landfall that he had ever experienced. Also, Katrina wasn't even designated until reaching the Southern Bahamas. I mean, the similarities are astounding. It's going to end up likely being designated almost exactly 11 years later, just off by about 3-4 days.