2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[Rjay]

15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is the only model stalling this storm. Bias?

CMC ensemble mean is much further west than the 12z run

Euro just trended west at 0z. The problem was the stalling part. If that didn't happen, this would have most likely came up the coast. Ridging on the coast was stronger.

There was nothing to pull it up the coast on the Euro.  It had no place to go except to make a move to the ene and then drift south.

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, Rjay said:

There was nothing to pull it up the coast on the Euro.  It had no place to go except to make a move to the ene and then drift south.

Good post. Euro ensembles are still all over the place with more members hitting Florida than the 12z run. GEFS also has some hits. Still time to iron out the details.

[Sportybx]

Quick stupid question .. 

1 chances this thing hooks a left and makes landfall between NNJ and say Jones beach LI 

2. For worst impact to say the NYC area where would it have to hit . I know sandy hit in jersey and areas here were a complete mess . No gas for weeks ,houses gone tanker ships sitting in the road on SI ect . 

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Quick stupid question .. 

1 chances this thing hooks a left and makes landfall between NNJ and say Jones beach LI 

2. For worst impact to say the NYC area where would it have to hit . I know sandy hit in jersey and areas here were a complete mess . No gas for weeks ,houses gone tanker ships sitting in the road on SI ect . 

1.  Minimal.  You'd need a left hook which would require severe blocking (-NAO) or a very negative trough coming in at the exact right time.  Nothing like that is forecast.

2. Worst track for NYC outside of the above scenario would be a track up the Delaware Bay or even upper Chesapeake-the storrm would retain more strength and we'd be in the NE quadrant which has the worst winds etc.

[dmillz25]

20 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

Quick stupid question .. 

1 chances this thing hooks a left and makes landfall between NNJ and say Jones beach LI 

2. For worst impact to say the NYC area where would it have to hit . I know sandy hit in jersey and areas here were a complete mess . No gas for weeks ,houses gone tanker ships sitting in the road on SI ect . 

1. Slim to none

2. Needs to make land fall along the Jersey shore. 

[MJO812]

[Brian5671]

^^^^ that's one of the worst performing hurricane models outside the GFDL

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

^^^^ that's one of the worst performing hurricane models outside the GFDL

Some Hurricane models have shifted west

[Sportybx]

30 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

1. Slim to none

2. Needs to make land fall along the Jersey shore. 

So say it rides the coast . eye is about 75 miles off shore how bad of a impact does the metro area get ? 

Looking at the models and I'm very green with this whole thing I just love weather in it self . If it stays on the coast of NC and slightly nudges west and rides the east coast a storm this size will be pretty bad correct ? 

 

[NJwx85]

The 06z NAVGEM was West of 00z and even the 00z run was a significant hit here.

Something that's quite interesting is how expansive the NW periphery of the precipitation shield is thanks to the interaction with the trough.

On the 00z GFS the heaviest rains are in Upstate NY while the low tracks near the benchmark.

[RU848789]

54 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

So say it rides the coast . eye is about 75 miles off shore how bad of a impact does the metro area get ? 

Looking at the models and I'm very green with this whole thing I just love weather in it self . If it stays on the coast of NC and slightly nudges west and rides the east coast a storm this size will be pretty bad correct ? 

 

The approaching trough will almost certainly cause any storm that grazes the Outer Banks to head more NE than N, meaning a direct hit in our area is very unlikely (eastern LI, maybe), unless something changes significantly and unexpectedly.  We're still 6 days out, so that's still possible, but very unlikely.  A path 75-100 miles offshore of NJ/NYC will bring rain and wind, especially near the coast, but nothing worse than a typical nor'easter (other than serious surf and probably beach erosion).  IMO, the worst case for our area is a hit in eastern NC and the remnants (weakening to a TS would be likely if it goes over land for awhile) heading NE very close to the NJ coast, kind of like Floyd - that could bring flooding rains to the area and some damaging winds - that's also a low probability outcome, but possible.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

1. Slim to none

2. Needs to make land fall along the Jersey shore. 

How could you possibly say slim to none this far out?   Any and every solution is still on the table. Your playing model certainties here.... Not the way to go 

the only thing that IS  certain is large surf and beach erosion because that's coming regardless of an offshore track

[Sportybx]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

The approaching trough will almost certainly cause any storm that grazes the Outer Banks to head more NE than N, meaning a direct hit in our area is very unlikely (eastern LI, maybe), unless something changes significantly and unexpectedly.  We're still 6 days out, so that's still possible, but very unlikely.  A path 75-100 miles offshore of NJ/NYC will bring rain and wind, especially near the coast, but nothing worse than a typical nor'easter (other than serious surf and probably beach erosion).  IMO, the worst case for our area is a hit in eastern NC and the remnants (weakening to a TS would be likely if it goes over land for awhile) heading NE very close to the NJ coast, kind of like Floyd - that could bring flooding rains to the area and some damaging winds - that's also a low probability outcome, but possible.  

Thanks 

[dmillz25]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

How could you possibly say slim to none this far out?   Any and every solution is still on the table. Your playing model certainties here.... Not the way to go 

the only thing that IS  certain is large surf and beach erosion because that's coming regardless of an offshore track

Yes I'm going about what the models are saying. And I know it's still about a week out. At the present time it's slim to none. Can it change later on of course it can but I'm saying for right now

[MJO812]

Hazel and Floyd are some analogs for this storm on the NHC analog list.

[Allsnow]

A good amount of the EPS members overnight had Matthew making landfall in FL 

[BxEngine]

57 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

How could you possibly say slim to none this far out?   Any and every solution is still on the table. Your playing model certainties here.... Not the way to go 

the only thing that IS  certain is large surf and beach erosion because that's coming regardless of an offshore track

The chances of a direct strike on a 50 or so mile wide swath of land in our area is the very definition of slim. 

[Allsnow]

Gfs brings Matthew into South Carolina 

[David-LI]

12z GFS has the low much closer to FL coast

[Sportybx]

24 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

The chances of a direct strike on a 50 or so mile wide swath of land in our area is the very definition of slim. 

Very true but that can be said for any 50 or so mile swath of land on the NEC . No one really will get a hand where this is going to end up till it passes NC . 

[Allsnow]

12z Sunday landfall in northern coast of South Carolina 

[NortheastPAWx]

Looks like landfall on the SC/NC line at 123.

[Allsnow]

Going to be a huge rain maker for us on Sunday verbatim off the gfs 

[NortheastPAWx]

Precip into the area at 18z Saturday, 126.

[Rtd208]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

12z Sunday landfall in northern coast of South Carolina 

You mean Saturday??

[NortheastPAWx]

Massive rains in PA...

[NortheastPAWx]

141-144 we get ours...

[NortheastPAWx]

147 break out the boats. Large strip of 3.00+ in HV.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

You mean Saturday??

Yes. Sorry. Matthew goes inside the benchmark. The interaction with the front gives us a epic rainfall 

[NortheastPAWx]

Matthew heads toward Martha's Vineyard by 150. Accelerates toward SE Maine at 153.