2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

4 minutes ago, snow1 said:

Continues with the OTS solution. 

 

but still much closer.   100 miles more West than yesterday's 12z. 

[Rjay]

Lol look at what the Euro does at day 10.  If only that energy at the base of the trough was stronger and further east.  It'd prob tug Matthew back to the coast.  Anyway, another day another solution.  I'd favor ots right now as there's nothing to stop this from slipping east when it gets up near OBX.

[MJO812]

10 more days lol

[NortheastPAWx]

While specifics remain unclear, the 12z suite continues the general theme of OTS and no impact beyond waves and wind for the CONUS.

[Rtd208]

This was an interesting post from a met in the New England thread.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

10 more days lol

 

c'mon...i'm already losing sleep. 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

While specifics remain unclear, the 12z suite continues the general theme of OTS and no impact beyond waves and wind for the CONUS.

Close enough to watch except for the cmc.Another 10 days to go for the euro.

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Fwiw, Nam is similiar to the Ukie with the storm hitting Florida.

[MJO812]

Matthew is past 75west

[Morris]

54 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Fwiw, Nam is similiar to the Ukie with the storm hitting Florida.

My NAM only goes out to 84 hours...

[rcad1]

18z gfs is ots again! 

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, Morris said:

My NAM only goes out to 84 hours...

It's much further west than the other models.

[NycStormChaser]

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Over?

Really? I'm surprised in you

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, seanick said:

Really? I'm surprised in you

Sarcasm

[Brian5671]

LOL at using the 84 hr NAM for a tropical system-come on people

[WaPo]

The trough after the current one, which could interact with Matthew, looks like it could have been a dangerous combination between a future TC and the negative trough. 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, WaPo said:

The trough after the current one, which could interact with Matthew, looks like it could have been a dangerous combination between a future TC and the negative trough. 

That's a positively tilted trough. 

[WaPo]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

That's a positively tilted trough. 

Oops. Chose the wrong frame. Lol. Go ahead two more frames. On mobile now. 

 

0Z GFS initialized. 

[NJwx85]

GFS is going to be way West. Major changes.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

GFS is going to be way West. Major changes.

Huge changes but not enough. Way west of 18z though.

[MJO812]

CMC misses the area up here but wow, way west of 12z.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Still misses...

I said it misses. It also went way west from 12z.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

I said it misses. It also went way west from 12z.

You also don't need a direct impact to see major effects especially by the time it gets up here. 

Still have no clue what will happen.

[Rjay]

Ukie.  Landfall south of Cape Hatteras 

[NortheastPAWx]

Need to see the rest of the setup on the UK...would we be looking at a swing out like the GFS/CMC?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Need to see the rest of the setup on the UK...would we be looking at a swing out like the GFS/CMC?

CMC wasn't a swing out. It never made landfall but shifted way west. Doesn't matter if it hits us tonight. The point is that the models have shifted west. Now we still have a few days to iron this out.

[Rjay]

26 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Need to see the rest of the setup on the UK...would we be looking at a swing out like the GFS/CMC?

The 500 mb maps only go out to 72 hrs on that site.

Edit: go navy

[MJO812]

0z GEFS west of 18z. Looks much better.

 

Navgem

 

[MJO812]

Euro is the only model stalling this storm. Bias?

CMC ensemble mean is much further west than the 12z run

Euro just trended west at 0z. The problem was the stalling part. If that didn't happen, this would have most likely came up the coast. Ridging on the coast was stronger.