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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WaPo said:

Yeah the ridge is stronger but the ULL is so weak and far away that it doesn't even come close to a full phase. 

Its stalled off of Hatteras at HR216. 

Yea it looked like it was making the turn after it got the SC coast and eastern NC with rain and wind and then it only moved maybe 25-50 miles in between hours 192-216.

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WaPo

WaPo

Posted
Posted

Frankly beyond today's earlier GFS run, the trough and ULL over the Midwest have looked like hot garbage for a potential phase. 

We've got a lot of time for things to change, but as of right now things don't look spectacular for the H5 over the Plains. 

There looks to be a slight phase at the end of the run, but the storm looks like it dogs itself out near the Carolinas and has a weak capture off of the Mid-Atlantic coast  

 

 

 

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Euro came around to the westerly GFS getting more tucked in near the SE coast, but it splits the trough and leaves a piece out west

so it misses the phase. GFS brings out a stronger piece of energy with a trough phase with Matthew right over the area. Looks like the shorter

term trends through 120 moving to GFS and we just need Euro to come around on the deeper trough next weekend for the GFS to verify.

 

gfs_z500a_noram_26.png

 

ecmwf_z500a_noram_27.png

 

 

Isn't the Euro known for leaving pieces of energy in the west? I thought that was one of its biases.

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wthrmn654

wthrmn654

Posted
Posted

that 12 hurricane spread kinda looks like its split in 2 camps. one clipping the Carolinas and then heading north somewhere from NYC to cape cod while the other half have it grazing possibly the Carolinas and maybe going further east.. at-least that's what i am taking/seeing in that picture..

 

 

roughly it looks like maybe 9 aim off shore, a couple go offshore but re-curve back towards cape cod..

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mophstymeo01

mophstymeo01

Posted
Posted
CMC develops a second low to the northeast of Matthew and follows that weakness OTS.   Does not recognize the ridging.  But CMC never misses an opportunity to create TDs out of nothing.



I'm surprised the CMC hasn't tried to obliterate the east coast yet.


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uofmiami

uofmiami

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

CMC develops a second low to the northeast of Matthew and follows that weakness OTS.   Does not recognize the ridging.  But CMC never misses an opportunity to create TDs out of nothing.

The NHC does have 98L, so the CMC is not making something out of nothing.

 

two_atl_5d0.png

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like 3 solutions: the Irene or Hazel path up the coast, the late capture for eastern New England/Canada and the OTS scenario. If the monthly trends of stronger than forecast western Atlantic ridging is any indication, then I'll immediately jump on the first two scenarios. 

Don't write off the 3rd scenario this far out. You could easily get burned. Wait till Tuesday/Wednesday before making any calls. That tiny little eye could get torn to shreds going over the super tall mountains of eastern Cuba if it goes west (which it is right now) if it threads the needle between Cuba and Haiti it could easily explode over the super warm waters of the Bahamas  

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
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I think you would really need 98L to develop quickly and become strong enough to cause a weakness in the ridge, NHC doesn't give it much of a chance and even if it does develop the shear will prevent it from becoming more than a weak TS. 

It's going to be too small/weak to make a huge difference. Also Matthew's character will change post Cuba similar to what Ike went through though not as large. 

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rcad1

rcad1

Posted
Posted

Does the 12z GFS have newer data in it then the 6z run?  So strange that yesterday 18z came up the coast then 0z shifted east then today 6z came back west and now the 12 z is east again seems every run is opposite of the last. So I'm wondering witch runs have the new data from recon missions especially the recon of the upper air?

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larrye

larrye

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, rcad1 said:

Does the 12z GFS have newer data in it then the 6z run?  So strange that yesterday 18z came up the coast then 0z shifted east then today 6z came back west and now the 12 z is east again seems every run is opposite of the last. So I'm wondering witch runs have the new data from recon missions especially the recon of the upper air?

Well, if memory serves ... the 6z and 18z runs do not ingest the same amount of input data as the 0z and 12z ... so generally they are not considered to be as reliable. Someone can correct me if I am wrong.

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