2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

12z euro out to Thursday morning has Matthew weak and drifting west slowly in the eastern Bahamas 

Looks like it might be folding towards the GFS

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like it might be folding towards the GFS

I'm out to 12z Friday its in the western Bahamas moving west. It starts out way east but ends up moving west from there 

[Allsnow]

War is a lot stronger this run which should allow it to come further west 

[NJwx85]

Actually moving West off the FL coast

[Rtd208]

The Euro seems to be really having a tough time with Matthew IMO.

[Allsnow]

Bluewave is going to love this run as it continues the theme we had all summer stronger war! 

[Allsnow]

12z Saturday major hurricane sitting off the southeast coast 

[NJwx85]

That pesky ULL on the Euro is still not going to let Mathew come far enough North this run. You can see it getting pulled NE at day 7. The good news is that it's still seven days away. This was definitely a shift towards the GFS solution.

[Rjay]

I know there's a 12 hr difference but big shift west on the Euro.

0z @ 168 

Vs

12z @ 168

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

That pesky ULL on the Euro is still not going to let Mathew come far enough North this run. You can see it getting pulled NE at day 7. The good news is that it's still seven days away. This was definitely a shift towards the GFS solution.

It's also slower then 00z but much further west 

[NJwx85]

Just now, Allsnow said:

It's also slower then 00z but much further west 

Yeah to be honest I was expecting an even harder right turn because it was East early. I think it's pretty safe to say at this point that the first benchmark is for Mathew to miss Haiti. If it crosses Haiti it's that much harder to get it to come back far enough West. Even the GFS more or less brings it due North from its position in the Bahamas.

[NJwx85]

JMA was just a hair late and crushes E NE

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It's also slower then 00z but much further west 

And still way ots 

[NJwx85]

Just now, Rjay said:

And still way ots 

I'm sorry but is this meant to be a trolling post?

At 00z 10/10 the Euro is at least 500 miles further NW from it's 00z position, and headed for a landfall in Canada. It wouldn't have taken much change to get a GFS solution.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

And still way ots 

Th slower speed allows it to get kicked east but its way further west then 00z because of the war 

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm sorry but is this meant to be a trolling post?

At 00z 10/10 the Euro is at least 500 miles further NW from it's 00z position, and headed for a landfall in Canada. It wouldn't have taken much change to get a GFS solution.

Did you not see my post showing the big jump west on this run?

 

It certainly looked much better but are you saying this is not still way ots?  I'm talking about this run verbatim.  

 

That trough shown on the Euro is weak sauce and needs to be stronger/dig a bit more to capture Matthew.

 

**Image to show pretty far ots.

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

I made a thread, since you guys won't.

I think it's about that time -

 

We don't start threads for a storm this far out.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Did you not see my post showing the big jump west on this run?

 

It certainly looked much better but are you saying this is not still way ots?  I'm talking about this run verbatim.  

 

That trough shown in the Euro is weak sauce and needs to be stronger/dig a bit more to capture Matthew.

Perhaps I misinterpreted your post.

Mathew is such a large cyclone that even though the center appears to pass well offshore, it actually rains in North Carolina on this run and some of the wind makes it onshore even up this way. Eventually Mathew makes landfall in Nova Scotia. To me, saying way OTS can be misleading, especially when the last several runs were clearly well OTS.

[NJwx85]

Just now, Bacon Strips said:

 

can u give credit at-least...whenever u guys do decide.

were less than a week away, that's nothing.  Sandy was called correctly 9 days beforehand.

 At this juncture the only real model which impacts this area significantly is the GFS and handful of ensembles. We're at least seven days away from impact up here and we have this thread to discuss possibilities until things become clearer. 

[NJwx85]

Interestingly enough the HWRF develops a high pressure system near Cuba. Does this possibly help prevent Mathew from getting further West once North of Cuba? I'm not sure which level the steering currents are for TC's.

[NJwx85]

Didn't see 12z but looks like the far majority bring Mathew close to NC

 

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The short term track over the next 5 days will be very important. The Euro track would be closer to the GFS if it didn't track over Haiti.

Notice how the Euro ending up SE of the GFS at 120 causes it to get kicked out instead of picked up by the trough like the GFS.

Also look at the trough on the Euro vs the gfs

[Hoth]

5 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I made a mistake. Only happened in 2011.

No you didn't. There was a strong one in 2011 that cracked the National Monument, and in October '12 there was one centered in Maine. Had a pretty good shake in Boston.

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Also look at the trough on the Euro vs the gfs

Trough is more amplified on the gfs which would cause a phase

[NJwx85]

Back up to 130kts at 5PM. Looks like it'll make another trip into Cat 5 status later tonight.

[nesussxwx]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Back up to 130kts at 5PM. Looks like it'll make another trip into Cat 5 status later tonight.

performed a counter-clockwise loop. looking better and better on satellite.

[jbenedet]

+ PNA ridging and - NAO developing by day 6. I strongly favor the 12z GFS trough depiction over the 12z Euro given these teleconnection forecasts.

[NortheastPAWx]

Guess you're thinking hit, jben?

[NJwx85]

GFS looks a bit East of the 12z run so far. Takes the center over Haiti.

[Rjay]

17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

GFS looks a bit East of the 12z run so far. Takes the center over Haiti.