2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[NJwx85]

Hearing recon has it down to 957 latest pass.

[Morris]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Hearing recon has it down to 957 latest pass.

956.7 mb

[NJwx85]

Euro sitting over the Central Bahamas day 7, barely moving.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Euro sitting over the Central Bahamas day 7, barely moving.

 

what the..

[NJwx85]

936mb at 180hrs on the Euro in the Bahamas.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

It might be a broken run, saw a tweet somewhere.

[NJwx85]

Euro run ends with Mathew stalled over the Northern Bahamas, 924.5mb.

[Hoth]

Bahamas blown away, probably crazy beach erosion all along Florida's EC.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The WAR on the Euro is so strong this run that it gets boxed in near the Bahamas for days. 

 

It actually starts moving Southeast as the run ends. Crazy.

[cut]

Refresh my memory ... What is WAR again?

[NJwx85]

Looks like Anthony was correct earlier and possibly shows what we've all been waiting for the GFS or Euro op runs to show.

[dmillz25]

2 minutes ago, cut said:

Refresh my memory ... What is WAR again?

Western Atlantic Ridge

[cut]

West Atlantic Ridge - that last chart reminded me what it is!!!

[Allsnow]

Please stay away from the Bahamas one of my favorite vacation spots. Beautiful islands 

[Drz1111]

There is 100+ meters of 26C water in the Bahamas.  Granted, that doesn't look like a particularly well-ventilated pattern with the WAR squishing it down, but I doubt we'd see anything worse than slow weakening.

[NJwx85]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Please stay away from the Bahamas one of my favorite vacation spots. Beautiful islands 

Eh, most models keep the core East of the big vacation spots of Freeport and Nassau. The GFDL is the exception.

[Allsnow]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Eh, most models keep the core East of the big vacation spots of Freeport and Nassau. The GFDL is the exception.

Good news! Thanks 

[Morris]

So the Euro doesn't touch Jamaica.

[WaPo]

I don't know if it has been mentioned but the GFDL shows a Jupiter, FL landfall in 120 hours. Considering the dynamics, that solution seems pretty likely. 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

A stronger than expected solution, usually means a slower moving solution. 

which means it could still be meandering just off the coast, waiting the 'capture'.

[Morris]

Cat 4 on recon SFMR.

[Rtd208]

I am hoping by Sunday we start to get a good handle on where Matthew will eventually track, the threat to the US east coast is certainly still there. Very impressive hurricane at the moment to say the least. If the models start honing in on more of an east coast threat over the next couple of days these forums are going to explode.

[nyblizz44]

Here it is folks. CAT 4!!

5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 30
Location: 13.5°N 71.6°W
Moving: WSW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 949 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

[dmillz25]

Wow Matthew blew up

[NortheastPAWx]

Lord have mercy. Classic RI.

Wasn't this just designated a TS yesterday?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

23 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

ELord have mercy. Classic RI.

Wasn't this just designated a TS yesterday?

Read the NHC discussion. Classic RI and forecast by no one. Shows how far we still have to go with hurricane forecasting

one thing is true when a storm is as large and as powerful as Matthew it kind of creates its own environment. Hence the sliver of low shear he's been in today is no coincidence 

 

I think the Bahamians are royaly screwed. And even south Florida gets into squalls and trop Storm fource winds.

 

the entire east coast is going to take a beating beach erosion wise not just Florida 

[NJwx85]

Mathew hasn't even moved into the deepest, warmest waters yet which are sitting South of Jamaica and Cuba.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Mathew hasn't even moved into the deepest, warmest waters yet which are sitting South of Jamaica and Cuba.

I'm surprised they mentioned 'weakening' after 12 hours.  

somebody should make a Matt thread.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Hour 150 looks like it about to slam right into south east Georgia 

[Jason WX]

18z GFS captured.