2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[NJwx85]

This run MAY do it. Mathew is interacting with the trough while still off the South Carolina coast.

[DFridman29]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This run MAY do it. Mathew is interacting with the trough while still off the South Carolina coast.

Certainly looks like a very close call.

[jm1220]

Nope, out it goes by hr 180. Still a long time to watch this. It looks like a weakness develops in the ridge off Cape Cod around hr 168 or so, and this provides a route out to sea. 

[NJwx85]

It's going to be close enough to the coast this run that E LI and SNE would see some impacts.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

You think he'd be this dismissive of a nor'easter threat shown at 160+ hours?

 

2 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

This is a bad post, maybe the worst of posts.  There is still a substantial risk of a Florida LF.  Jesus, you'd think people never tracked tropical systems before.

Lighten up, it's just weather... and btw, I'd LOVE to here your thoughts on how this poses a "substantial risk for Florida LF?... 

[NJwx85]

Hooking back into the coast, looks like Maine or Canada.

[NJwx85]

Complete phase and capture this run. 

Now all we need is other guidance to come back.

[NJwx85]

Yup, landfall in Downeast Maine in 216 hrs. 953mb.

85-90MPH surface winds East of the Center.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hooking back into the coast, looks like Maine or Canada.

Huge storm in Maine on this run

[Drz1111]

8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

 

Lighten up, it's just weather... and btw, I'd LOVE to here your thoughts on how this poses a "substantial risk for Florida LF?... 

Here's the simplest answer:  The average track error for N. Atlantic hurricane forecasts at 120hrs is ~230 miles.  This is a tougher than average forecast given that it's October and it involves interaction with the midlatitude westerlies.  The models have the storm coming WELL within 230 miles of S. Florida.  There is a substantial risk of a Florida landfall.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Here's the simplest answer:  The average track error for N. Atlantic hurricane forecasts at 120hrs is ~230 miles.  This is a tougher than average forecast given that it's October and it involves interaction with the midlatitude westerlies.  The models have the storm coming WELL within 230 miles of S. Florida.  There is a substantial risk of a Florida landfall.

Another thing is that this storm is still a week away and a lot of things can happen within a week.

[NJwx85]

The GGEM is similar to the GFS

955mb landfall just East of Maine day 10.

[NJwx85]

Need the trough to capture here

Instead of here

[MJO812]

Decent shift west on the UKIE. Low goes near east coast of Florida

[Allsnow]

This is too strong and to far south to effect us. Way out to sea this will go 

[NJwx85]

GEFS ensembles look west looking at the spaghetti plots. Looks like quite a few members have Mathew making landfall on the Carolina coast and then bring it North. Some are still East of the OP and OTS. Overall, a better look.

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This is too strong and to far south to effect us. Way out to sea this will go 

Not if it's captured. Now the models at 12z and bringing in the trough more faster and slowing down the storm. Possible capture possible? GFS,CMC,Navgem think so.

This storm is now over 170 hours out if it would hit up here.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

GEFS ensembles look west looking at the spaghetti plots. Looks like quite a few members have Mathew making landfall on the Carolina coast and then bring it North. Some are still East of the OP and OTS. Overall, a better look.

Possible capture taking place?

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Possible capture taking place?

What is that the NAVGEM? You have to look at what's going on at H5. That looks more like an inverted trough as the front interacts with Mathew.

[SnoSki14]

At this point a capture the only way this can come back west but that's very tricky to setup, the positioning/timing/strength of the trough and Matthew all have to line up. If anything's off then it'll simply get kicked OTS, which remains the most likely option. 

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

At this point a capture the only way this can come back west but that's very tricky to setup, the positioning/timing/strength of the trough and Matthew all have to line up. If anything's off then it'll simply get kicked OTS, which remains the most likely option. 

A capture or trough interaction is the only way you can ever get a system to come this far North without becoming embedded in the Westerlies. This is very much a thread the needle situation, however the steering currents should be weak while Mathew is off the FL coast thanks to the strong blocking in place.

[Drz1111]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

A capture or trough interaction is the only way you can ever get a system to come this far North without becoming embedded in the Westerlies. This is very much a thread the needle situation, however the steering currents should be weak while Mathew is off the FL coast thanks to the strong blocking in place.

I was about to say the same thing.  Once you get north of around the latitude of Wilmington, NC, trough interaction is the only way to keep a storm from recurving.  There's a reason why EC landfalls are so rare (as a percentage of total hurricanes).

[MJO812]

Look at these hooks 

 

GEFS

[NJwx85]

Just now, Drz1111 said:

I was about to say the same thing.  Once you get north of around the latitude of Wilmington, NC, trough interaction is the only way to keep a storm from recurving.  There's a reason why EC landfalls are so rare (as a percentage of total hurricanes).

This is why you typically see storms make it up here either early or towards the end of the season, when the wave lengths are longer and a greater chance of phasing and trough interaction exists. 

[Brian5671]

is that initialized at 1001 MB?????   

[NJwx85]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

is that initialized at 1001 MB?????   

Ensembles are useless for intensity but good for tracks.

 

[NJwx85]

HWRF with a 935mb cane in the Bahamas in five days.

[Brian5671]

down to 960 MB and 120mph winds.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

down to 960 MB and 120mph winds.

You could even argue that's somewhat conservative based on recon data.

[Brian5671]

may see that WAR trend stronger as it did with the cutoff low that is screwing us out of much needed rain today!