2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[bluewave]

Euro pulls a version of the Joaquin forecast this run where the GFS was showing a landfall and the Euro OTS.

The Euro is slower than the GFS so Matthew misses the first trough that the GFS picks up. Too far south for the 

second trough and gets kicked OTS.

 

Maybe the gulfstream data getting added to the 0z runs tonight will make some changes to the forecast.

The one thing we can say about the Euro today is that the forward motion did pick up north of Cuba from the molasses run yesterday.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Hurricane models are more west at 18z

[Yanksfan]

Euro was close to seeing something special. Definite trend towards the GFS. Can't wait to see the ensembles.

[Neblizzard]

10 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Euro was close to seeing something special. Definite trend towards the GFS. Can't wait to see the ensembles.

It's definitely a trend towards the GFS.   Just two days ago it had Matthew going towards the Gulf.

[jbenedet]

18 hours ago, Snow88 said:

This clustering through the central Bahamas is a pretty damn important first step. Yesterday the clustering was further east and even Haiti was under the gun. A recurve that early probably wouldn't cut it for anyone in the CONUS. And climo shows it's virtually unprecedented to see a direct impact around 40N with a recurve northward that begins east of the central Bahamas.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Has anyone seen the 12z NAVGEM? It only goes to 180hr, but the blocking set up to the north/east, would support a direct left turn

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

This things really getting its sht together right now. The CDO IS EXPANDING BIG TIME. There are even some serious hot towers near the center. A stronger earlier storm will definitely effect the forecast 

[MJO812]

Gfs is a miss but the timing differences between euro and gfs are huge.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs is a miss but the timing differences between euro and gfs are huge.

How big of a miss? On phone no access 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

How big of a miss? On phone no access 

Way east of 12z

Although gefs mean is much further west.

[Morris]

Down to 985 mb on recon.

[Jason WX]

[NortheastPAWx]

If the storm is strengthening so quickly doesn't that make a further east track more likely?

[Jason WX]

1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said:

If the storm is strengthening so quickly doesn't that make a further east track more likely?

yep. weaker=SW

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Strengthening/slowing on radar currently, no Bueno if you're looking for a EC hit for some reason

[dmillz25]

Wow Matthew is a Cat 2 100 mph cane now. RI much?

[NortheastPAWx]

If it keeps strengthening like this it'll be about time to write it off up here.

[Morris]

Latest recon inside Matthew showing 966mb central pressure, max SFMR winds of 93 knots. https://t.co/YaPYMPsJIx

[Rtd208]

The likelihood of an east coast impact outside of the Carolina Outer Banks has certainly decreased, would still keep on eye on it and the models for the next few days before completely writing this off.

[NJwx85]

33 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The likelihood of an east coast impact outside of the Carolina Outer Banks has certainly decreased, would still keep on eye on it and the models for the next few days before completely writing this off.

We have a long way to go. Mathew in all likelihood has to deal with crossing Jamaica and Cuba. We really don't know at this stage how that land interaction is going to change things. Theoretically Mathew could not survive the trip if it crossed both Eastern Jamaica and Eastern Cuba where the elevation is high. You could have a center relocation ect. Some guidance even suggests that the center could get very close to the East coast of Florida. It's just too early.

[nycwinter]

hurricane gilbert crossed the island of jamaica from the east end to the west end and looked like it even strengthened as it did it..

[NJwx85]

54 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

hurricane gilbert crossed the island of jamaica from the east end to the west end and looked like it even strengthened as it did it..

Completely different track. The Eastern end of Jamaica is more mountainous than the rest of the island. In this case, Mathew could have to cross the higher terrain of both Jamaica and Cuba. 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Buh  bye Mathew, onto winter 

[Drz1111]

9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Buh  bye Mathew, onto winter 

This is a bad post, maybe the worst of posts.  There is still a substantial risk of a Florida LF.  Jesus, you'd think people never tracked tropical systems before.

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

This is a bad post, maybe the worst of posts.  There is still a substantial risk of a Florida LF.  Jesus, you'd think people never tracked tropical systems before.

You think he'd be this dismissive of a nor'easter threat shown at 160+ hours?

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

everybody needs to chill, there's going to be plenty more flip-flops the next 7 days.

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

This is a bad post, maybe the worst of posts.  There is still a substantial risk of a Florida LF.  Jesus, you'd think people never tracked tropical systems before.

The risk of a FL landfall is pretty low. I don't see how that happens if we have the model consensus now of a sharp north turn to the east end of Cuba. From there, the Atlantic ridge is looking weaker than a couple of days ago, and the mid-latitude pattern is more conducive towards a turn out to sea from the Bahamas. 

[Hoth]

Major hurricane now. 115mph and 968mb.

[NJwx85]

The WAR is stronger on the GFS this run through day 5

[NJwx85]

GFS is well SW of 06z run by day 6, moving NW near the GA coast.