2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[Morris]

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Morris said:

7-9" of rain for the metro. bring it on.

that would take care of the drought!

[NJwx85]

It was the GFS showing 99L threatening for days while the Euro showed nothing and now it has completely flipped. Not that it matters, but it brings 50-60kt winds into the coastal areas and drops a max of 9.1" just south of I-78.

[MJO812]

Majority of euro ensembles are in the gulf . Control also.

[NJwx85]

Still so much uncertainty. We don't even have a depression yet. It's credible because of the strength of the ridge that builds overhead once into the Bahamas and the available rocket fuel in that region. The Eastern gulf waters aren't as warm as the Western gulf or the E coast of FL, so for maximum strength on the secondary landfall you would want a wider turn once in the Gulf.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Still so much uncertainty. We don't even have a depression yet. It's credible because of the strength of the ridge that builds overhead once into the Bahamas and the available rocket fuel in that region. The Eastern gulf waters aren't as warm as the Western gulf or the E coast of FL, so for maximum strength on the secondary landfall you would want a wider turn once in the Gulf.

also, the Loop current in the gulf is a wildcard.

[wxeyeNH]

Really need the rain up here in New England.  Without an east coast trough this potential storm would never get this far north.  Our only real chance of rain is to get the storm well west into the Gulf before turning NE and potentially having the remnants come this far north.  Problem with that scenario is the longer over the Gulf the stronger the system and more potential damage along the Gulf coast.  I assume the relative cooler water in the Eastern Gulf is because of that system that sat around a couple of weeks back.  I wonder if 4 or 5 more sunny days would start to increase temps again?

[Jason WX]

HWRF really wants to warm the water off the Mid-Atlantic.

[Brian5671]

lots of 86-88 degrees waters there.   

[Morris]

 

[NortheastPAWx]

Hope it doesn't head for the Gulf. The last thing Louisiana needs right now is any kind of tropical system.

[Morris]

GFS is still nada.

[Morris]

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/768219235160092672

[nesussxwx]

Despite the GFS not showing the intensity the EURO is showing, it is coming to a consensus in which area would be affected, GFS ensembles are also more enthusiastic. Jb stated anyone from North Carolina to Miami should watch out.

18z Ensembles

 

12z GFS Ensembles

 

[nesussxwx]

By the way, good analysis from earlier today, guys.

[NJwx85]

I'm pretty confident 99L will break the FL cane drought. The biggest deterrent is interaction with Hispanolia but if it manages to miss, it will be full steam ahead.

[Morris]

The 12z run of the UKMET definitely agrees with the EURO on 99L's track. https://t.co/iWzOHCfp1q

 

Pretty much identical.

[nesussxwx]

 

NHC states there is a HIGH chance (70%) of tropical development over the next 5 days. #Invest99L

 

[nesussxwx]

18Z HWRF Parent ends up shredding 99L, and turning Fiona into a hurricane headed for the Carolinas most likely.. Interesting.. probably a low chance of occuring.

 

[Morris]

NHC has scheduled another Air Force Recon mission for tomorrow into Invest 99L area.

[Jason WX]

22 minutes ago, UnionWX said:

18Z HWRF Parent ends up shredding 99L, and turning Fiona into a hurricane headed for the Carolinas most likely.. Interesting.. probably a low chance of occuring.

 

That would be something... LOL

[AnthonyDabbundo]

The storm is headed for Florida but the much bigger question is what happens after Florida. Some of the ensembles are hinting at a storm hitting the gulf coast and that would be catastrophic for LA right now. 

[Jason WX]

Thinking that 00z models will have a weaker ridge.. probably wrong

[Morris]

NAM is much more organized on 0z.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Morris said:

NAM is much more organized on 0z.

And north compared to the other models

[Morris]

GFS says nada.

[Jason WX]

It breaks down the ridge a bit quicker 

[Jason WX]

Oh boy lol 

[Jason WX]

Big boy headed N from Bahamas near end of the run.

[nesussxwx]

CMC is a NOLA hit. GFS has this bad boy recurving OTS after brushing the Florida coast. Ukmet hits SFL. Long days ahead. NAM starting to get into range..and oh, don't forget about the EURO..Long days ahead