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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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wthrmn654

wthrmn654

Posted
Posted

Actually I found one, tropical Atlantic, very detailed,with clickable data at various drop sondes live during its flight!

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 11:53Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 11:32:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°07'N 65°27'W (14.1167N 65.45W)
B. Center Fix Location: 300 statute miles (482 km) to the S (172°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,390m (4,560ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound:64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 59° at 80kts (From the ENE at ~ 92.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.42 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye):15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye):Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph) which was observed 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NW (311°) from the flight level center at 11:18:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 95° at 11kts (From the E at 13mph)

 

 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

makes you wonder, how early is too early to start warning the public.   Models have been strangely consistent for the most part, considering how far out this is.

Similar to Sandy.

Even if it misses a 100 miles east,  it still wouldn't be a bad idea , to see strongly worded statements 5 to 7 days out.
 

At this point tremendous surf and beach erosion are a lock. The great Atlantic hurricane of 1944 was over 100 miles east of Atlantic city and still managed to decimate the board walk and destroy homes: I think coastal residents should really be on top of this one even if it misses by a couple hundred miles 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

Makes you wonder, how early is too early to start warning the public.   Models have been strangely consistent for the most part, considering how far out this is.

Similar to Sandy.

Even if it misses a 100 miles east,  it still wouldn't be a bad idea , to see strongly worded statements 5 to 7 days out.
 

gimme a break, it's 8 days away on this run-FANTASY, warning anyone now would just be hype and lulls the public into a false sense of security if it goes out to sea.    Look at how folks reacted to Hermine which busted 2 days out

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I wouldn't get my hopes up for this one. I think this one misses for the most part. I see a close call but no cookie

I wouldn't bet on anything but I'm starting to think it's more likely to keep shifting west so that Florida may get a close call, I don't know what happens as it heads north. It's forward speed and trajectory will make all the difference. Could see it brushing Florida, Carolinas and then swing NNE some 100-200 offshore Delmarva/NJ. 

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

At this point tremendous surf and beach erosion are a lock. The great Atlantic hurricane of 1944 was over 100 miles east of Atlantic city and still managed to decimate the board walk and destroy homes: I think coastal residents should really be on top of this one even if it misses by a couple hundred miles 

 

Agreed, even if it goes far inland starting at N.C....the onshore flow / surge would be much higher for the area.

So it's a big hit either way, all depending on how strong it could get.   and/or how much the mountains in Cuba screw things up.

A lot of equations still out there.

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e46and2

e46and2

Posted
Posted

yes, this is fantasy land, but as others have said, we got locked onto sandy pretty early in the game because of model insistence.  one thing i have noticed on all of the solutions is that it maintains a tropical look wherever it goes.  that could be noise at this point, but most solutions keep the precip field intact and rather heavy.  While this wouldn't have near the damage of Sandy, it would be cool to have a more "tropical" storm in the area, with howling winds to go along with sideways rain.  not to mention that convection helps mix down some of those intense gusts from the upper levels.

 

this is merely an analysis of current model solutions, not an endorsement of any.  I do feel confident this will impact the US in some way, even if it does not make any actual landfall.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

Makes you wonder, how early is too early to start warning the public.   Models have been strangely consistent for the most part, considering how far out this is.

Similar to Sandy.

Even if it misses a 100 miles east,  it still wouldn't be a bad idea , to see strongly worded statements 5 to 7 days out.
 

Hype much?

 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted 
000
WTNT34 KNHC 291736
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
200 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016

...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 67.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM NE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 67.0 West.  Matthew is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a general westward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next couple of days.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts.  Gradual strengthening is expected during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force-winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km) from the center.  NOAA buoy 42059 has recently
reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to
54 mph (86 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft was 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bonaire, Curacao,
and Aruba beginning late today.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Matthew will begin to diminish
across the Lesser Antilles this afternoon, with additional amounts
of an inch or less expected.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao
through Saturday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao,
Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
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