2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[ForestHillWx]

Long way to go, but the overnight runs of the GFS have impressive amounts of QPF....Ark worthy. Now back to drought watch 2016!

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

11 am NHC advisory for Matthew.

[MJO812]

Tropical Storm Matthew has been born 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

18 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Long way to go, but the overnight runs of the GFS have impressive amounts of QPF....Ark worthy. Now back to drought watch 2016!

Just took a quick peak at QPF output, would be an absolute disaster for Mid Atlantic/jersey/NYC/LI, if it happened if course

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Also take a look at the air temps between the 10th-13 after storm departs... lows getting into low/mid 30s

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Strength Potential, majority sit at or above Cat 2/3

[Rittenhouse]

Reconnaissance aircraft found 60mph winds at the surface. Matthew making quite the first impression.

[NJwx85]

The GFS is a good bit east of 06z through 00z Sunday.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS is a good bit east of 06z through 00z Sunday.

Slower and also further north

[MJO812]

More north and east at 111 than the 6z run on the GFS. Looks like it might spare Jamaica.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Not much change through 156, a tad east if anything, turns due north between 156/162

[MJO812]

This is going to be a disaster run for the area

Edit: Not a lot of rain

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

This is going to be a disaster run for the area

Passes right by mid Atlantic and Carolinas

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Passes right by mid Atlantic and Carolinas

Up near LI at 210

Looks like it ends up just inside the benchmark. More runs to go.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This is going to be a disaster run for the area

It's far less impressive for our region. The GFS has progressively moved East now for several runs. I think we're close to a complete miss if trends continue.

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Up near LI at 210

When that 2 is a 1 then I'll be worried. Models are pretty consistent though 

[NJwx85]

Meh, having it cross Hispanolia instead of Cuba isn't ideal for us. Hoping the Euro's stronger ridge is correct.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's far less impressive for our region. The GFS has progressively moved East now for several runs. I think we're close to a complete miss if trends continue.

Yep, spoke to soon.

No trends at all

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Meh, having it cross Hispanolia instead of Cuba isn't ideal for us. Hoping the Euro's stronger ridge is correct.

We are 8-9 days out. Plenty of long nights ahead of watching and different solutions.

[NJwx85]

The 12z GGEM is also wide right. Zero US impacts.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

I love snow, but as a career firefighter, I'd prefer not to see hurricane landfalls around here, it's not fun... especially 8+ inches of rain lol, pump outs are about as boring as the job gets

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's far less impressive for our region. The GFS has progressively moved East now for several runs. I think we're close to a complete miss if trends continue.

Most storms that impact our area pass very close to the outer banks-this makes the north turn so early that it's well east of the coast and will likely find a weakness to escape east.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We are 8-9 days out. Plenty of long nights ahead of watching and different solutions.

LOL at staying up late for a day 8-9 hurricane model run.   

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

LOL at staying up late for a day 8-9 hurricane model run.   

I went to bed after the Euro this morning

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I went to bed after the Euro this morning

not worth it, this is still fantasy range...

[Rittenhouse]

GFS is probably too fast, too far east, and too weak. I'd be very surprised if it doesn't begin to rapidly intensify before landfall in Eastern Cuba. The Caribbean is a powder keg right now, with extremely warm SSTs and low shear.

[dmillz25]

Many runs to go. 8 days worth. Matthew can be a hurricane by tomorrow 

[NJwx85]

The GEFS mean is well West of the OP and argues for a phase and track inside of the benchmark.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GEFS mean is well West of the OP and argues for a phase and track inside of the benchmark.

Here are the members. There are some that have landfall near Deleware.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2016092812&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=927

[mike1984]

I get this is far off and will likely change, but as of now are we looking at impacts next Saturday here? That's about the timeframe?