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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

We now have Julia

  

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

CORRECTED SPELLING OF ALTAMAHA SOUND IN SUMMARY SECTION

...TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORMS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...
...SLOW-MOVING STORM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 81.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Ponte Vedra Beach,
Florida, northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ponte Vedra Beach to Altamaha Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case, tropical
storm conditions are already occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 81.6 West. Julia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue tonight with a reduction in forward
speed tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Little change
in strength is expected tonight.  Julia is forecast to weaken to a
tropical depression by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km),
mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center. Recent
observations indicate that sustained tropical-storm-force winds are
occurring along the northeast coast of Florida from Ponte Vedra
northward to the mouth of the St. Johns River.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are already occuring within the
tropical storm warning area.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain near
the northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina coastlines
through Friday afternoon. Isolated totals of 10 inches are possible.
This rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Flooding may be further
compounded with persistent strong onshore flow reducing river and
stream discharges.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two will be possible tonight
through Wednesday morning across parts of northeastern Florida and
southeastern Georgia.
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thunderbolt

thunderbolt

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS weeklies tries to bring the MJO around to favorable Atlantic phases for development in mid to late October.

Obviously, this is a very speculative forecast and subject to large errors. It indicates the potential for development

anywhere from the Western Caribbean to East of Florida. 

 

In any event, the season is working similar to analogs that I posted on May 31st with most of the 

strongest activity this season being focused north of 20N as anomalous dry air continues to dominate the tropics.

Recent years have also featured a pick up in October activity as the dry air has lessened relative to JAS.

Be interesting to see if October follows a similar pattern to recent years.

 

EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

 

track.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

good call so far blue

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thunderbolt

thunderbolt

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Thanks, it will be interesting to see if the strongest development of the season holds off until October like recent years. It May really come down to

getting or not getting a MJO boost. A slight decrease in the dry air and a storm getting to those very warm SST's east of Florida and the Bahamas

would raise the potential for a strong late development. But the dry air has really been limiting development and overall ACE do far and it could 

continue absent the favorable MJO and relaxation of the dry air.

yeah I'm looking at possibly some homegrown I believe the Cape Verde season you could put a fork in I'm looking in the Gulf for possibly or the Caribbean with some fronts coming down to get the ball rolling ( that's if we get any cold front coming down lol)

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
On 9/20/2016 at 3:30 PM, bluewave said:

Thanks, it will be interesting to see if the strongest development of the season holds off until October like recent years. It May really come down to

getting or not getting a MJO boost. A slight decrease in the dry air and a storm getting to those very warm SST's east of Florida and the Bahamas

would raise the potential for a strong late development. But the dry air has really been limiting development and overall ACE do far and it could 

continue absent the favorable MJO and relaxation of the dry air.

late season warmth sometimes come with late season tropical storms...Hazel in 1954 comes to mind...

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Matthew questions...

How much interaction with northern South America and Dominican Republic?

Can it get far enough west like 12z Euro is showing near Cuba for interaction with trough moving east around day 10?

Stay tuned...

 

ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-74ASoS.png

 

The fact that we're going to be in October increases the chances of a phase. Mathew does end up in a similar position to where Sandy was picked up by the trough.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You can stick a fork in this season as far as we are concerned. The chances of another sandy (or something similar) are we'll into the 100s/1 

we have had a couple fun swells from the season but nothing particularly memorable 

lol

Check out the cmc and gfs

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