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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The ridge on the Euro and EPS is so strong that Hermine can't get as far NW as it did on 12z.

So this run we are on the very northern fringe of the system. The next few runs should be

key to see how far north this actually gets. Despite being further SE, the Euro still generated

pounding surf, coastal flooding, and beach erosion. It had 60 mph gusts from the LI

South Shore down the Jersey Shore.

ecmwf_sig_hgt_wnatl_16.png

 

How likely is it that the 00z Euro and EPS is overdoing the strength of the ridge?

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Michael05192016

Michael05192016

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

How likely is it that the 00z Euro and EPS is overdoing the strength of the ridge?

I think it might be underdoing it some and system stalls 38/72 for 3-5 days with nice weather north of 40 latitude for whole weekend. It may be p/sunny 15-20 NE breeze and 72 for the weekend in NYC and LI and points north. My opinion. 

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dmillz25

dmillz25

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Michael05192016 said:

I think it might be underdoing it some and system stalls 38/72 for 3-5 days with nice weather north of 40 latitude for whole weekend. It may be p/sunny 15-20 NE breeze and 72 for the weekend in NYC and LI and points north. My opinion. 

Doubt it. I've seen the euro overdo ridges and troughs

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

Just remember that as this becomes extra-tropical the wind field will begin to expand to the North and East of the system and a majority of the rain will move to the West side. So don't put too much weight on the QPF maps thinking that if it's not showing rain over your backyard that it's going to be a beautiful sunny day. If this ends up heading way OTS that's a different story, but if this ends up stalling just offshore it's going to be very windy here.

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ForestHillWx

ForestHillWx

Posted
Posted

It appears both the 0z and 6z GFS models are close to a capture, near the mouth of the Delaware Bay. If that occurs, wouldn't the storm go through a rapid intensification period as it transitions? Assuming this thing gets anywhere near the benchmark, I would think substantial rain/wind are in our near future.  

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

It appears both the 0z and 6z GFS models are close to a capture, near the mouth of the Delaware Bay. If that occurs, wouldn't the storm go through a rapid intensification period as it transitions? Assuming this thing gets anywhere near the benchmark, I would think substantial rain/wind are in our near future.  

Yes

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

The NAM might have some skill regarding the trough interaction with Hermine. The 12z run occludes the storm too far South for us with most of the rain confined to SE VA. A max of 17.2" is showing up near Norfolk. But that is significantly further Northeast than the 06z run which had the system occluding over North Carolina instead. 

Ideally for maximum impact here you would want the storm to occlude of the NJ coast.

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Morris

Morris

Posted
Posted 
1. A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. A low pressure area
is expected to form in association with the wave several hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form by the weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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