2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS mean and control run stall Hermine off the Delmarva for the next 10 days.

Just a bit SE of the 12z OP Euro through 120 and doesn't loop back as far west this weekend.

what an odd solution.  I'm sure it would occlude and die out but 10 days?   Wow.   Also the high to the north is so big I wonder how far north the rains can get....

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

what an odd solution.  I'm sure it would occlude and die out but 10 days?   Wow.   Also the high to the north is so big I wonder how far north the rains can get....

With all the blocking it has no chance to escape. Some of the hurricane models loop it back again in the middle of the weak 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

what an odd solution.  I'm sure it would occlude and die out but 10 days?   Wow.   Also the high to the north is so big I wonder how far north the rains can get....

It's really close to the OP in the idea of this getting stuck under the block near the MA Coast. 

 

 

 

[forkyfork]

it all depends on when the capture occurs. this is a difficult forecast

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's really close to the OP in the idea of this getting stuck under the block near the MA Coast. 

 

 

 

That would just be sooooo epic. We go from terrible drought to unprecedented floods. Anyone who is a climate change denier needs to get their head checked. Here we go blocking again. !

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS mean and control run stall Hermine off the Delmarva for the next 10 days.

Just a bit SE of the 12z OP Euro through 120 and doesn't loop back as far west this weekend.

A track like that would be devastating to the jersey shore. All that water would not have anywhere to go. 

[Morris]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Can't. 

If it's out there...

[forkyfork]

that shows a capture anywhere between new england and virginia

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That would just be sooooo epic. We go from terrible drought to unprecedented floods. Anyone who is a climate change denier needs to get their head checked. Here we go blocking again. !

 

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

A track like that would be devastating to the jersey shore. All that water would not have anywhere to go. 

There is plenty of fuel out there with record SST's in the low 80's off the Delmarva if it tracks over the ocean and gets pulled back in to near the coast

rather than a more inland GFS track.

http://www.weather.gov/akq/observations

[ForestHillWx]

Aside from the north west side of the TS, it looks like she's attempting to undergo some intensification.

 

Side note, statements about climate change deniers, based on one storm modeled to impact our area, should be left to the climate change threads. JMHO.

[forkyfork]

the euro has a second wind max on the north side of the storm

[Allsnow]

18z GFS at 18z Saturday has the storm just east of Newport News VA. Tons of rain has been dumped on eastern NC.

[forkyfork]

it's a bit east of 12z which bodes for a stronger storm

[MJO812]

Gfs is east of 12z but weaker than the ggem and euro

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs is east of 12z but weaker than the ggem and euro

Sits over acy for a while! Tons of rain for the mid Atlantic and southern nj 

[forkyfork]

the track is similar to the euro. this could set back the sandy recovery

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

the track is similar to the euro. this could set back the sandy recovery

Still by the coast on 12z Monday full 24 hrs 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Still by the coast on 12z Monday full 24 hrs 

Stalls for a while

[NJwx85]

The heaviest rains are definitely going to be West of the center. But the Northern side will have the stronger winds. 

[Jason WX]

It's about to loop.

[Yanksfan]

GFS as usual is playing catch up. A 1000mb tropical cyclone with SST's like bathwater? Really? A scenario run like that run argues for a storm a good 10 millibars lower.

[Morris]

Pressure down to 1001 at the latest recon pass.

[Morris]

SFMR peak of 58kts on recon.

[MJO812]

The New hurricane models miss the area

Way east

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The New hurricane models miss the area

Way east

Yup, but it really depends on the interaction with the trough. Some of the 18z suite sped up and that could have implications. I didn't expect the models to be locked in with 4 days to go. If we lose the globals tonight then I'd be worried.

[Rtd208]

From the New England thread in reference to the east shift on the hurricane models.

[allgame830]

Just now, Rtd208 said:

From the New England thread in reference to the east shift on the hurricane models.

What does that even mean??

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

What does that even mean??

You need to click on the post to see the full quote. He basically said that it's odd that none of them show the loop back towards to coast and it could be because of the storm going from tropical to non tropical. 

[CoastalWx]

Maybe they are right and perhaps if I saw the individual solutions they show it but perhaps further south? Tough to tell in that mess. Anyways, seemed like most didn't show it which seemed weird to me.  Not that any solution is concrete this far out, but given how the globals are so hellbent on it...would have thought they showed it. Would think biggest issue is a close off further south like EC ensembles.

[NJwx85]

Agree with Coastal and Allsnow. Unless the Globals lose it I wouldn't worry much.