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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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larrye

larrye

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WaPo said:

Lol. It likely won't. 

Well, maybe not. But I think in order for this to be reality, we'd want to see at least a little bit of consistency. The GFS had a major cane coming up the east coast around 9/11 for several runs (although it kept changing the track from east coast to GOM and back) and now it's gone over the last couple of days. The difference now is we're within a much shorter range and the circulation has become a little more defined and we have a TS ... so the models should in theory have a better handle on it. But things change.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

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Just now, larrye said:

And the HWRF isn't?

The HWRF is a tropical model made specifically for tropical cyclones. So no it's not.

The NAM on the other hand was created to handle convection on land. It's best suited for predicting thunderstorms in the short term. The NAM lacks the processes and data needed to make accurate tropical forecasts that the global and tropical models have.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

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33 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

jeez the euro control run is devestating for the beaches. I made a gif of it but dont wanna break the rules more then I already have :whistle:

It does a loop right at the mouth of the bays, then tucks itself into the DE bay and deepens to 983 before moving a tad off the cost and becomes completely stationary.  

 

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larrye

larrye

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10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The HWRF is a tropical model made specifically for tropical cyclones. So no it's not.

The NAM on the other hand was created to handle convection on land. It's best suited for predicting thunderstorms in the short term. The NAM lacks the processes and data needed to make accurate tropical forecasts that the global and tropical models have.

Agree that the NAM is a short-term model, but it's certainly not limited to Thunderstorms. It actually was the only model to accurately predict our last major snowstorm if I remember correctly. My point is ... it looks to me like the NAM has a reasonable handle on the track (not sure about the intensity) now and the HWRF can certainly overdo the intensity just like the NAM. So while the NAM might not be a hurricane model, neither are the GFS or the ECMWF. If someone wants to talk about the NAM here now that we're in the short-term of landfall ... what's the big deal? People were citing the HWRF for the past week even though the intensity was overdone. 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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Posted
5 minutes ago, larrye said:

Agree that the NAM is a short-term model, but it's certainly not limited to Thunderstorms. It actually was the only model to accurately predict our last major snowstorm if I remember correctly. My point is ... it looks to me like the NAM has a reasonable handle on the track (not sure about the intensity) now and the HWRF can certainly overdo the intensity just like the NAM. So while the NAM might not be a hurricane model, neither are the GFS or the ECMWF. If someone wants to talk about the NAM here now that we're in the short-term of landfall ... what's the big deal? People were citing the HWRF for the past week even though the intensity was overdone. 

at the end of the nam, the storm is very impressive and deepening off the NC coast-dumping loads of rain.   Looks similar to the euro through that time frame. The blocking high has trended stronger as we've moved forward....

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NJwx85

NJwx85

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Just now, larrye said:

Agree that the NAM is a short-term model, but it's certainly not limited to Thunderstorms. It actually was the only model to accurately predict our last major snowstorm if I remember correctly. My point is ... it looks to me like the NAM has a reasonable handle on the track (not sure about the intensity) now and the HWRF can certainly overdo the intensity just like the NAM. So while the NAM might not be a hurricane model, neither are the GFS or the ECMWF. If someone wants to talk about the NAM here now that we're in the short-term of landfall ... what's the big deal? People were citing the HWRF for the past week even though the intensity was overdone. 

Have you even looked at the 4k NAM?

It's showing 950mb at landfall.

Like I said, enough with the NAM nonsense.

It's less useful than **** on a bull with tropical systems over the ocean. It might be useful once it comes onshore.

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