2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[MJO812]

GGEM crashes this storm into SNJ

[NJwx85]

The 12z GGEM destroys us. 996mb sitting just E of ACY on Saturday night. Pouring rain and wind well into the Albany CWA.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GGEM destroys us. 996mb sitting just E of ACY on Saturday night. Pouring rain and wind well into the Albany CWA.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Those are 850mb winds though.

Surface winds are more like 30-35kts.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Those are 850mb winds though.

Surface winds are more like 30-35kts.

Should be an interesting week coming up

[qg_omega]

UKIE looks like 0z EURO, nice weekend still is favored 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

UKIE looks like 0z EURO, nice weekend still is favored 

Wrong

 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

That's bad news for the coast on the GFS. Long time of easterly fetch off the ocean 

[Allsnow]

GGEM is 6+ of rain 

[NJwx85]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

UKIE looks like 0z EURO, nice weekend still is favored 

Are you a second account of Winterwarlock?

At least he actually can come up with a model that backs his agenda rather than just posting completely false information. 

[dmillz25]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

UKIE looks like 0z EURO, nice weekend still is favored 

That looks just like a benchmark hit in winter lmao

[NJwx85]

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

UKIE looks like 0z EURO, nice weekend still is favored 

Let me also remind you that the EPS was well West of the 00z OP and had many members near our coast.

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

GGEM is 6+ of rain 

[Allsnow]

Ukmet and ggem have the same position on Sunday for this storm but the ukmet does it with a loop back towards the coast 

[Morris]

RECON FINDS A TS

[NJwx85]

The 12z GEFS mean has this sitting less than 50 miles E of ACY on Sunday. Solid 1-2" of rain on the mean areawide.

[MJO812]

Navgem

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GEFS mean has this sitting less than 50 miles E of ACY on Sunday. Solid 1-2" of rain on the mean areawide.

close  a new moon too...not good for tides and erosion.

[NJwx85]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Navgem

Awesome, the NAVGEM actually doesn't do all that bad with TC's.

[psv88]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

close  a new moon too...not good for tides and erosion.

Those longshore currents kill the south shore beaches, eat them right up. Not good

[nesussxwx]

 

[Morris]

45 knots found already by recon.

[nesussxwx]

Sweet mama eye candy.

 

 

 

[NJwx85]

12z HWRF pounds LI and SNE. Rain back to EWR on Sunday morning. Starting to fall into line with the idea of retrograding.

[BxEngine]

49 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

UKIE looks like 0z EURO, nice weekend still is favored 

When you create new(er) accounts, maybe try a new schtick? At least one that hasnt failed you constantly in the past?

[NJwx85]

Gusts to Hurricane Force on the Cape and Nantucket Island on the HWRF

[NJwx85]

12z GFDL, 987mb right over the DE coast at hour 90, does a loop up through the DE Bay and then East OTS.

[nesussxwx]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12z GFDL, 987mb right over the DE coast at hour 90, does a loop up through the DE Bay and then East OTS.

Njwx what's your thoughts? Do you think more models are gaining more support for this scenario?

[tdp146]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Gusts to Hurricane Force on the Cape and Nantucket Island on the HWRF

also takes the center offshore at the N/S Carolina border and keeps it over water thereafter. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, UnionWX said:

Njwx what's your thoughts? Do you think more models are gaining more support for this scenario?

Lets put it this way, I told my wife to hold off on purchasing baseball tickets for a game on Saturday night lol

Right now I'd go with a 30% chance of rain through early Saturday afternoon with increasing clouds and a 60% of rain Saturday night, 70% chance south. Then 70% chance of rain on Sunday.