MJO812 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Still TD9 for the 11AM advisory TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1000 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 The system is producing vigorous deep convection, but there is little organization to the overall cloud pattern. Using the Dvorak rules, a bursting but disorganized convective pattern would indicate little change in strength. The intensity is held at 30 kt pending new observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft in a few hours. Also now STATIONARY movement and new track shows more of a bend back for the later part of the weekend... Question: the longer TD9 takes to move up the GULF towards Florida would that decide how close it gets to our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 NAM runs it up the coast inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 It's the NAM, but I guess it might have some usefulness once it gets up here because the system will no longer be fully tropical. It's super amped up like you would like to see at this range if you're looking for an impact up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 LOL 101.1 weather update just said it's going to be a beautiful weekend. Some people are going to be super surprised this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Models might still not be done trending west in the FL panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 What's the time frame currently if,and only if,it would be in the NY area effects wise? I don't think I'm going be having my generator installed in time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: What's the time frame currently if,and only if,it would be in the NY area effects wise? I don't think I'm going be having my generator installed in time lol Saturday night into Sunday, but the timing is subject to huge change given that TD9 is currently stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: What's the time frame currently if,and only if,it would be in the NY area effects wise? I don't think I'm going be having my generator installed in time lol Looks like labor day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Saturday night into Sunday, but the timing is subject to huge change given that TD9 is currently stationary. if it slows and stalls, it might be a 2 day affair.....need the rain but too bad it's on a holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 So would a further west in the GULF and slow movement translate to further west up our way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Busy few days coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 hour ago, allgame830 said: If that were to happen... obviously a BIG IF... what implications would that be for us? The media absolutely losing their mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 49 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: LOL 101.1 weather update just said it's going to be a beautiful weekend. Some people are going to be super surprised this weekend Odds favor a nice weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Odds favor a nice weekend Where are you getting your odds from? The 12z GFS is going to be a repeat of 06z. Actually very NAM like through 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Nam like at hour 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Odds favor a nice weekend They should at least be mentioning they are watching a tropical disturbance for Sunday and Monday. Put it out there so nobody's shocked if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The GFS is about 150 miles further NW than the 06z run by hr 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Getting tucked in at hour 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The GFS completely phases now with the ULL. When and where that occurs is going to be critical in determining where the biggest impacts are. In any event, heavy rain up to ACY by Saturday night. 999mb near the mouth of the Chesapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Howling onshore winds here late Saturday night. Even if most of the rain stays South it's going to be very windy, especially at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 No place to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: No place to go Yup it basically stalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 I wonder if this storm would have been stronger on this run if it was a little further east. The capture will be the key here to see where the storm will slam into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: I wonder if this storm would have been stronger on this run if it was a little further east. The capture will be the key here to see where the storm will slam into. Yes, I think for max impacts here you want the center sitting near the DE coast instead of just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Hopefully people aren't paying much attention to the QPF outputs. If you remember with Sandy, almost the entire Northern semi-circle had little to no rain where the strongest winds occurred. That's a common characteristic of extra-tropical transitioning storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 It's funny how similar this is to a Miller A in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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