2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[MJO812]

[allgame830]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Still TD9 for the 11AM advisory

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

The system is producing vigorous deep convection, but there is
little organization to the overall cloud pattern.  Using the Dvorak
rules, a bursting but disorganized convective pattern would indicate
little change in strength.  The intensity is held at 30 kt pending
new observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft in a few
hours. 

Also now STATIONARY movement and new track shows more of a bend back for the later part of the weekend...

Question: the longer TD9 takes to move up the GULF towards Florida would that decide how close it gets to our area?

[Morris]

NAM runs it up the coast inland.

[NJwx85]

It's the NAM, but I guess it might have some usefulness once it gets up here because the system will no longer be fully tropical. It's super amped up like you would like to see at this range if you're looking for an impact up this way. 

[NJwx85]

LOL 101.1 weather update just said it's going to be a beautiful weekend.

Some people are going to be super surprised this weekend 

[Morris]

Models might still not be done trending west in the FL panhandle.

[wthrmn654]

What's the time frame currently if,and only if,it would be in the NY area effects wise? I don't think I'm going be having my generator installed in time lol

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

What's the time frame currently if,and only if,it would be in the NY area effects wise? I don't think I'm going be having my generator installed in time lol

Saturday night into Sunday, but the timing is subject to huge change given that TD9 is currently stationary. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

What's the time frame currently if,and only if,it would be in the NY area effects wise? I don't think I'm going be having my generator installed in time lol

Looks like labor day

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Saturday night into Sunday, but the timing is subject to huge change given that TD9 is currently stationary. 

if it slows and stalls, it might be a 2 day affair.....need the rain but too bad it's on a holiday weekend.

[allgame830]

So would a further west in the GULF and slow movement translate to further west up our way?

[NJwx85]

[nesussxwx]

Busy few days coming up. 

[Tater Tot]

1 hour ago, allgame830 said:

If that were to happen... obviously a BIG IF... what implications would that be for us?

The media absolutely losing their mind. 

[qg_omega]

49 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

LOL 101.1 weather update just said it's going to be a beautiful weekend.

Some people are going to be super surprised this weekend 

Odds favor a nice weekend 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Odds favor a nice weekend 

Where are you getting your odds from? 

The 12z GFS is going to be a repeat of 06z.

Actually very NAM like through 72hrs.

[nesussxwx]

hr 60

 

[MJO812]

Nam like at hour 75

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Odds favor a nice weekend 

They should at least be mentioning they are watching a tropical disturbance for Sunday and Monday. Put it out there so nobody's shocked if it happens

[NJwx85]

The GFS is about 150 miles further NW than the 06z run by hr 78.

[MJO812]

Getting tucked in at hour 78

[NJwx85]

The GFS completely phases now with the ULL. When and where that occurs is going to be critical in determining where the biggest impacts are.

In any event, heavy rain up to ACY by Saturday night. 999mb near the mouth of the Chesapeake. 

[NJwx85]

Howling onshore winds here late Saturday night. Even if most of the rain stays South it's going to be very windy, especially at the coast.

[PaEasternWX]

[NJwx85]

No place to go

 

[PaEasternWX]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No place to go

 

Yup it basically stalls

[MJO812]

I wonder if this storm would have been stronger on this run if it was a little further east. The capture will be the key here to see where the storm will slam into.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

I wonder if this storm would have been stronger on this run if it was a little further east. The capture will be the key here to see where the storm will slam into.

Yes, I think for max impacts here you want the center sitting near the DE coast instead of just inland. 

 

[NJwx85]

Hopefully people aren't paying much attention to the QPF outputs. If you remember with Sandy, almost the entire Northern semi-circle had little to no rain where the strongest winds occurred. That's a common characteristic of extra-tropical transitioning storms.

[WaPo]

It's funny how similar this is to a Miller A in January.