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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

NWS forecast for holiday weekend does not contain the words Rain, Wind or unusual tides for NYC.  Which models are they using?  GFS getting no weighting perhaps!

 

too far out.   Still 5 days away.  I would not make mention of it until later today at the earliest, wait for another suite or 2 of models.

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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

NWS forecast for holiday weekend does not contain the words Rain, Wind or unusual tides for NYC.  Which models are they using?  GFS getting no weighting perhaps!

 

Actually the forecast discussions from both Mt.Holly and Upton mentioned our weekend weather would be dependent upon the eventual track of the current TD 9 once it nears our area.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's actually believable that this gets stuck somewhere near the MA coast with such a strong block to the N and NE.

eps_z500a_exnamer_25.png

Yes, it's certainly plausible. Will want to watch the strength of that surface HP. Many get caught focusing on the SLP of the storm, without factoring in the synoptic scale gradient. For the northeast, the latter is more important in terms of net impact.

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WaPo

WaPo

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

How significant would the wind be in that solution?

Way too early to say anything about wind or rain #'s at this point. Expect tropical storm or nor'easter like conditions should something like this occur. That said, climo says something like this is more likely to happen in October or November, not in early September. 

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, WaPo said:

Way too early to say anything about wind or rain #'s at this point. Expect tropical storm or nor'easter like conditions should something like this occur. That said, climo says something like this is more likely to happen in October or November, not in early September. 

 

8 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

As per 6z , but a little early  .

 

gfs_mslp_wind_neus_18.png

Agreed a little early... just wanted to get sorta an idea of what we could encounter... could be a nasty later part of the holiday weekend which kinda sucks.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, PB GFI said:

EURO

 

Top winds at 0z  8/30

landfall 40 kts gusts to 63 kts  998 MB 

vs

Top winds at 12z  8/30

landfall 58 kts gusts to 84 kts  982 MB 

 

 

Top winds at 0z  8/31.

landfall 64 kts gusts to 102 kts  980 MB

 

The EURO is continuing to show slight strengthening for 3 runs in a row as it makes landfall in FLA .

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

Still TD9 for the 11AM advisory 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

The system is producing vigorous deep convection, but there is
little organization to the overall cloud pattern.  Using the Dvorak
rules, a bursting but disorganized convective pattern would indicate
little change in strength.  The intensity is held at 30 kt pending
new observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft in a few
hours.
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