2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[NJwx85]

[NJwx85]

92L

[dmillz25]

Starting to get a bit interesting

[WaPo]

40 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

92L

Is that a close phase?

[Brian5671]

Just now, WaPo said:

Is that a close phase?

14 days away.  Entertainment only at this point.

[BxEngine]

45 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Is that significantly faster, or just a product of it being closer to us vs out to sea on previous runs? Havent paid this much attention. 

[WaPo]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

14 days away.  Entertainment only at this point.

Interesting to see two close phases on one model run nonetheless. 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Is that significantly faster, or just a product of it being closer to us vs out to sea on previous runs? Havent paid this much attention. 

I'd say slower, the key seems to be some phasing between a trailing shortwave and TD9 near the Carolina coast.

[NJwx85]

Euro made a big NW shift and now has a 984mb landfall in NW FL.

It also just misses the phase at 96hrs allowing it to escape NE.

[PB GFI]

EURO

 

Top winds at 0z

landfall 40 kts gusts to 63 kts  998 

vs

Top winds at 12z

landfall 58 kts gusts to 84 kts  982 

[NJwx85]

The Euro cuts off the system now too. Moving due West towards Cape Cod on Monday.

[NJwx85]

WOW Euro.

991mb moving Due West and deepening as it completes extratropical transition. 

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Euro made a big NW shift and now has a 984mb landfall in NW FL.

It also just misses the phase at 96hrs allowing it to escape NE.

I wonder if it being stronger on the Euro has something to do with that?

[NJwx85]

The Euro stalls out just West of the benchmark and fills. It's going to be an interesting few days of model runs at least.

[MJO812]

[bluewave]

Every 12z run today has a trough phase...it's just a matter of where the storm is when the phase occurs.

CMC and UKMET west...GFS/GEFS more down center..Euro east but trending west from 0z.

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

You keep posting old images. You need to save the files and then upload them. Copy and paste doesn't work.

[NJwx85]

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Thanks

[NJwx85]

Practice for Winter with the interior screw job in full affect

 

[NJwx85]

The 12z HWRF and GFDL start hooking back towards the coast at the end of the runs as well.

[NJwx85]

Look at the ridge to the North. This would be in a primary spot to come North, and it's also in a very favorable upper air environment here.

 

[Allsnow]

I see nothing metfan 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I see nothing metfan 

It was the nhc cone. Shifted west and has that retrogade look.

[MJO812]

Gefs is way west compared to the op run for up here

[WaPo]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs is way west compared to the op run for up here

Pics?

[MJO812]

[WaPo]

Oh wow. 

 

On another note, fantasy land CV storm disappeared on the 18Z GFS. 

[HailMan06]

13 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

 

Isn't that a Strong Cat 4?

Not necessarily. It also depends on the size of the storm. Assuming central pressure remains constant the larger the storm the slower the wind speed. Look up conservation of angular momentum.

[MJO812]

GFS and GGEM miss the area with the storm