2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[MJO812]

99L is back on the Euro.

 

Hurricane in the gulf

[MJO812]

99L is back on the Euro.

 

Hurricane in the gulf

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Waiting for the arrival of the first hurricane swell of the season from gustav. It will not be huge (3-5') but should last for several days and have enough power for a couple minor wash overs at high tide and definitely dangerous swimming conditions 

[Morris]

Tropical storms suck because there is too much time to track.

 

Many more Euro runs. Not staying up.

[Morris]

Euro changed track and hence intensity, but otherwise stayed course.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Morris said:

Euro changed track and hence intensity, but otherwise stayed course.

Wait what? Lol

[wthrmn654]

My imagination or are models starting to shift the track further north once 99l exists off of east coast again?

[Brian5671]

the system off NC looks interesting...moving wests towards the coast...maybe a low end TS by Tue?

[Morris]

There's still 20+ kts of vertical shear near/over Invest99L, per CIMSS analysis https://t.co/UPWzsp8FIn

[MJO812]

Getting busy

[NortheastPAWx]

39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the system off NC looks interesting...moving wests towards the coast...maybe a low end TS by Tue?

Nope. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Quote

 

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few
hours in association with an area of low pressure located about 250
miles west of Bermuda.  While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive, some additional development of this system is
possible during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.  As the low approaches the coast of North Carolina
by mid-week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development.  For additional information on this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.   An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Morris]

Trend of HWRF for 99L shows how over-amplified its been valid 11AM Mon. Strongest 987mb, newest forecast 1006mb. https://t.co/rWKUHDnKrk

[NJwx85]

Here we go boys...91L has become a TD. Advisories initiating at 11AM.

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Here we go boys...91L has become a TD. Advisories initiating at 11AM.

funny that this system is going to become Hermine and not the pile of garbage off Cuba

[larrye]

22 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs continues to show a hurricane near the east coast in the first week of September

Yes, end of first week/beginning of 2nd week in Sept. but it is the GFS 2 weeks out ... and if you look back, you'll see that it did the same thing with 99L. Obviously something to keep one's eye on. 

[BxEngine]

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

Wait what? Lol

Everything changed, so its the same. Duh.

[Morris]

GFS is trending farther west into the Gulf of Mexico with 99L. https://t.co/hWPMmOXctU

See the gif

[Morris]

Euro folded completely.

[Morris]

Hurricane Hunters arriving at 99L now.

[forkyfork]

there's a separate tropical forum

[Morris]

18z spaghetti has nearly all having it as a TS and nearly none as a hurricane. HW is insane.

[Morris]

It was nice seeing you, 99L!

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Morris said:

It was nice seeing you, 99L!

Huh?

[Morris]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Huh?

?

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Morris said:

?

It's strengthening

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Huh?

Bc it's TD 9...

[Morris]

TD-8 is now decoupled from convection. Will be surprised to see it recouple, meaning this is going to stay weak. https://t.co/U8XF5xK9a2

[SnoSki14]

06z gfs is certainly interesting in the LR. That wave coming off Africa could be that long tracker we've been waiting for. I'm hoping it becomes the dreaded "I" storm and given how TD 8 is doing could be possible. 

[CIK62]

GFS says we may have a second reason to remember Sept. 11, as a Cat.1 smashes city on 15th. anniversary.

 

[MJO812]

49 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

GFS says we may have a second reason to remember Sept. 11, as a Cat.1 smashes city on 15th. anniversary.

 

That wave has been on the gfs for a few days. Tracks have been changing which isnt a shock this far out.