2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[Jason WX]

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Jason WX said:

GFS has shown this for a few runs

 

GGEM also shows something near the mid atlantic coast at 240

[NJwx85]

12z HWRF bombs 99L in the E Gulf.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

12z HWRF bombs 99L in the E Gulf.

989 at hour 84 and still bombing

[NJwx85]

Just now, Snow88 said:

989 at hour 84 and still bombing

Down to 975mb by hour 93.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Down to 975mb by hour 93.

[NJwx85]

Max winds up to 105mp by Tuesday afternoon. Still out in the middle of the Gulf far from land.

[NJwx85]

Hits Cat 3 status Tuesday night.

[MJO812]

12z HWRF

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=ref&runtime=2016082612&fh=105&xpos=0&ypos=944

 

Sub 960 low at hour 105 in the gulf

 

Wow

[NJwx85]

Hour 120 completes the 12z HWRF run

944mb cane located between 28/29N and 87/86W.

Max winds 133.1MPH.

[Morris]

I think we should all post all the crazy runs for this system from the HWRF that have already not verified. it had it already as a major hurricane at this point.

[Morris]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hour 120 completes the 12z HWRF run

944mb cane located between 28/29N and 87/86W.

Max winds 133.1MPH.

939

[Morris]

 

[Morris]

 

[Morris]

 

[tmagan]

4 hours ago, Morris said:

Any doppler radar in Cuba?

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

[Brian5671]

JB pulls the plug:  but with the system in the gulf also, this has too much going on around it to become the concern I thought it would be. 

[Rtd208]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

JB pulls the plug:  but with the system in the gulf also, this has too much going on around it to become the concern I thought it would be. 

JB pulls the plug, expect a major hurricane lol.

[Brian5671]

Just now, Rtd208 said:

JB pulls the plug, expect a major hurricane lol.

LOL.  He usually hangs on to the bitter end so the fact that he's bailing shows you where this is going.  He thinks the system in the western gulf and the disturbed area near bermuda have an equal chance of developing.  The bermuda system moves west to the Carolina coast.

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL.  He usually hangs on to the bitter end so the fact that he's bailing shows you where this is going.  He thinks the system in the western gulf and the disturbed area near bermuda have an equal chance of developing.  The bermuda system moves west to the Carolina coast.

Yeah to a major hurricane in a few days. lol

[Rtd208]

Seriously though, I certainly wouldn't be to quick to write off 99L by any means. Plenty of warm water down there and the shear has been lessening. 

[Morris]

The 18z suite looks better to me.

[Morris]

Convection looking nicer. Won't post the gif because the system reverts to an older post of it.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Morris said:

Convection looking nicer. Won't post the gif because the system reverts to an older post of it.

If you save it to your computer and then upload the image it will work.

In any event, it doesn't look quite as healthy as it did a few hours ago, but it's still maintaining deep convection and should hopefully continue to do so as we move closer to the diurnal max.  

[Jason WX]

[Jason WX]

 

[nesussxwx]

Any talk on 91L?

[wthrmn654]

Interesting how 99l updated is forget west into gulf now with intensity to cat 1/2 hurricane by 108 hours..

 

[wthrmn654]

10 hours ago, UnionWX said:

Any talk on 91L?

91l the track is further west then yesterday,but the intensity forecast has been a little up and down. However, it should become at least a tropical Storm based on several model runs. But most recent has it close to a cat 1 looks like...

[MJO812]

Gfs continues to show a hurricane near the east coast in the first week of September