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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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CIK62

CIK62

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Models keep us in sinking air in the wake of the missed systems to our east and show virtually no precipitation for the whole 384 hour run(GFS), which then dares to entice us with a Cat2 near Hatteras at the end of run.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

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42 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

a further east and then north track could give us some rains next week if it doesnt get kicked out to sea.

Our best chance of rain from 99L is if the ridge holds stronger and landfall ultimately occurs in LA or further West. The models have been fairly consistent in showing a trough dipping down into SE Canada kicking whatever ends up near the Carolina coast OTS.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Our best chance of rain from 99L is if the ridge holds stronger and landfall ultimately occurs in LA or further West. The models have been fairly consistent in showing a trough dipping down into SE Canada kicking whatever ends up near the Carolina coast OTS.

Agree.   As long as the storm remains weak, I could see the further south path working out (which then leads to the westward track down the road)  Also if that ends up being the case, the eventual storm could be stronger as it will have more open Gulf to work with.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

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12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree.   As long as the storm remains weak, I could see the further south path working out (which then leads to the westward track down the road)  Also if that ends up being the case, the eventual storm could be stronger as it will have more open Gulf to work with.

The current 12z GFS run is the most organized 99L has looked in days. It actually has a closed off low pressure system approaching the FL big bend middle of next week.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

guess it's back to normal then, it hasnt met a storm that it doesnt want to blow up

My favorite part the most current run is days 5-10 when it takes an area of thunderstorms northward from the Eastern Gulf over Florida and then off the GA coast where it develops into a hurricane backing into the Carolina's day 10 lol

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