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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It starting jumping ship yesterday-went from a 945 monster and is now down to a tropical storm....so it did take 3 runs...

You can't expect models to have an accurate take when we don't even have a storm yet. Part of the reason why we have a weaker system the last two days is because of the slower organization overall.

When we had a major in the Gulf it had already reached high end TS status before landfalling in SE FL.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Morris said:

998 at landfall. Vs. 971 at 0z. 

Sorry, but this is a major cave at this stage.

With all due respect, the differences between the Euro solution and the GFS are night and day. It's like saying that the Euro went from 24" of snow to 8" of snow in one run while the GFS doesn't even have a storm. 

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Morris

Morris

Posted
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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

With all due respect, the differences between the Euro solution and the GFS are night and day. It's like saying that the Euro went from 24" of snow to 8" of snow in one run while the GFS doesn't even have a storm. 

The difference isn't so big. One more change of the Euro in the Bahamas and it doesn't develop at all like the GFS. It made a huge cave on the intensity there.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
Just now, UnionWX said:

Credit where credit is due.. GFS barely waivered the past couple of days, EURO went from something like 971mb to now a weak 998mb into the big bend(one run). Intensity wise so far, GFS has out schooled the EURO. No reason to start an argument on this comment.. we are  all entitled to our own opinion.. 

And the 00z Euro could show a cane in the Gulf. Crown winners at your own peril. 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
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2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Well, put this one to bed. Not developing at all and models are going toward the weak GFS. Tropical season is such a waste of time anymore.

can't buy a major cane these days.  10 years and 8 months since we've had a Cat 3 or higher strike on US soil.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Jason WX said:

Not calling this off at all but the wave at the end of the ecmwf run tho

Yeah, hits the ground running in five days and then runs due West under a monster ridge. Manages to make it from the coast of Africa almost the islands in five days. The GFS was developing that wave too but has since backed off.

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