2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[NJwx85]

12z HWRF has a major hurricane near 75W/17N in four days. 

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

WAY east of 00z run. very interesting.

[NJwx85]

  On 9/28/2016 at 6:46 PM, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said:

WAY east of 00z run. very interesting.

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Drifts around East of the Bahamas for a few days before turning NNE, likely harmlessly heading OTS after that. 

Bad trends today in the modeling for US landfall impact.

[bluewave]

Crawling along and pounding the SE Bahamas days 6-10 as the steering flow becomes very weak.

[NJwx85]

  On 9/28/2016 at 6:54 PM, bluewave said:

Crawling along and pounding the Bahamas days 6-9 as the steering flow becomes very weak.

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By day ten, the trough that could possibly bring Mathew towards our area is long gone.

[MJO812]

  On 9/28/2016 at 6:53 PM, NJwx85 said:

Drifts around East of the Bahamas for a few days before turning NNE, likely harmlessly heading OTS after that. 

Bad trends today in the modeling for US landfall impact.

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What are you expecting a week out?

[NJwx85]

  On 9/28/2016 at 7:06 PM, Snow88 said:

What are you expecting a week out?

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I'm not expecting anything. I'm making an observation. I've seen this movie too many times to not know how this usually ends.

[Brian5671]

Looks like Joaquin from last year which meandered, then found a weakness out and accelerated NE out to sea

[MJO812]

  On 9/28/2016 at 7:08 PM, NJwx85 said:

I'm not expecting anything. I'm making an observation. I've seen this movie too many times to not know how this usually ends.

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How is it going to end up? 

[BlueDXer75]

  On 9/28/2016 at 7:06 PM, Snow88 said:

What are you expecting a week out?

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ORHwxman had a great reply in the NE thread in regards to people living and dying by each OP model run, especially with a TC

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

In regards to the Euro, it's movement is so slow that The South East ridge builds in and blocks it out. 

[Brian5671]

  On 9/28/2016 at 7:17 PM, Snow88 said:

How is it going to end up? 

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take a look at a climo map for October storms and you'll see....

[Rtd208]

 

[forkyfork]

i think this is just a typical stupid day 7+ euro solution. if the ens mean is threatening i would discount the OP

[NJwx85]

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

  On 9/28/2016 at 7:32 PM, NJwx85 said:

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Looks like a Maryland landfall for the US would be possible

[MJO812]

  On 9/28/2016 at 7:22 PM, Brian5671 said:

take a look at a climo map for October storms and you'll see....

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I guess we should stop tracking this storm

[NJwx85]

The EPS mean is nothing like the OP. Just North of Cuba on Wednesday night, headed towards the Southern Bahamas. 

[NJwx85]

EPS mean ends up close to Florida day ten. Some members in the Gulf, some close to FL and some in the Bahamas. Certainly nothing like the GFS.

[e46and2]

  On 9/28/2016 at 7:22 PM, Brian5671 said:

take a look at a climo map for October storms and you'll see....

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that's not a forecast or analysis.  we can all do this...and we will all be right most of the time.  without looking at a single computer model..the prediction that a hurricane will miss our area will prove right far more times than not.  when more than one model exhibits potential, you pay attention to it.  sandy happened.  it was very unlikely, and remains very unlikely to happen again, but it doesn't mean we should be flippant about such potential.  

 

i can make a few probably right predictions too.  most snowstorms will fail rather than succeed.  most severe storms will be less severe east of new york city.  it's unlikely to hit 0 degrees in NYC or the coast this season.  all of these statements are true, yet they have all happened over the last decade.  i don't think anyone here is under the illusion that this is likely, just that it is possible.

[bluewave]

The UKMET is a carbon copy of the slower Euro at least through 144 hrs sitting over Eastern Cuba. The EPS mean so far looks like a western

outlier compared to the OP Euro, UKMET, and GFS.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

  On 9/28/2016 at 8:34 PM, bluewave said:

The UKMET is a carbon copy of the slower Euro at least through 144 hrs sitting over Eastern Cuba. The EPS mean so far looks like a western

outlier compared to the OP Euro, UKMET, and GFS.

 

 

 

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Take the middle and go with the Gefs

Euro control hammers south Florida

[NJwx85]

GFS scrapes Jamaica, E Cuba landfall.

[NJwx85]

Landfall in Cuba is almost exact same place Sandy made landfall.

[forkyfork]

don't fall in love with any model runs yet

 

[NJwx85]

The GFS ends up scraping the coast up here. No phase, nothing to hook it back west. The block is there but it's not enough to force it West.

[NJwx85]

The surface winds are a lot more impressive than Hermine. The windfield is probably twice as large.

[MJO812]

Gefs is very consistent witn an east coast track

[SnoSki14]

  On 9/28/2016 at 11:19 PM, Snow88 said:

Gefs is very consistent witn an east coast track

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If the latest cut-off track adjustment is any indication then we'll likely see more westward shifts with Matthew.

[CIK62]

12Z EURO has Cat.2/3 well east of Florida and 1100 miles  due south of us on day 10, while the EPS is puny with a 'nothing system' drifting into GOM by day 10 and dying.