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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
  On 8/29/2016 at 12:52 PM, Snow88 said:
6z GEFS has some members already showing the wave hitting the coast or coming really close  with the wave coming off of Africa
 
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Pretty strong consensus on the GEFS mean for a strike near the NC coast in about two weeks, but still an eternity to go.

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_47.png

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larrye

larrye

Posted
Posted
  On 8/29/2016 at 11:50 AM, Snow88 said:

That wave has been on the gfs for a few days. Tracks have been changing which isnt a shock this far out.

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Exactly. Yesterday one GFS run had it hitting FL while another had it going into the GOM. It's been consistently showing up, though and bears watching. But I wouldn't get too excited just yet 2 weeks out on the GFS.

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
  On 8/29/2016 at 2:39 PM, NJwx85 said:

NHC noting that Lester is exhibiting annular characteristics. It could threaten the Hawaiian islands this weekend. 

avn_lalo-animated.gif

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If it goes fully annular it will have a harder time weakening before potentially hitting the Hawaiian islands. Generally storms coming at them from the east weaken as they hit the cooler waters just east of the islands. We have seen that multiple times in the last couple years 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
  On 8/30/2016 at 1:55 PM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

 


Are the winds around Cat 3/4?

Sent from my ZTE A2017U using Tapatalk
 

 

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Yes that's what I meant. A 938mb pressure would normally be associated with a hurricane that was nearing cat 4 strength but it doesn't necessarily have to be the case. For example the 38' LI Express cane is said to have maxed out at 940mb with 160mph max sustained winds. Keep in mind that they obviously didn't have the data back then that we do now. Hugo on the other hand peaked at 918mb and the same max winds of 160mph.

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nycwinter

nycwinter

Posted
Posted
  On 8/30/2016 at 2:02 PM, NJwx85 said:

Yes that's what I meant. A 938mb pressure would normally be associated with a hurricane that was nearing cat 4 strength but it doesn't necessarily have to be the case. For example the 38' LI Express cane is said to have maxed out at 940mb with 160mph max sustained winds. Keep in mind that they obviously didn't have the data back then that we do now. Hugo on the other hand peaked at 918mb and the same max winds of 160mph.

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sandy was around 940 and still a cat 1 then again your right back then they did not have the means to accurately measure a hurricane strength..look at hurricane patricia last year if we did not have planes investigating it no way would we have found it's 200 mph winds by satelite alone..

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
  On 8/30/2016 at 3:09 PM, nycwinter said:

sandy was around 940 and still a cat 1 then again your right back then they did not have the means to accurately measure a hurricane strength..look at hurricane patricia last year if we did not have planes investigating it no way would we have found it's 200 mph winds by satelite alone..

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You can't use Sandy. It wasn't purely tropical when it reached our latitude. 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

The GFS stalls what's left of TD 9 for days south of Long Island as it becomes absorbed by the trough and the entire thing essentially cuts off. 

Delivers an onshore flow into Long Island, SNE and the NJ coast for days with rain from NYC South and East and then up into SNE.

If this were to happen, depending on positioning and intensity it could be quite wet around here for several days.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png

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