2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N

[bluewave]

Early indications are that the Atlantic will see another active tropical cyclone season

north of 20N. This has been a familiar theme in recent years with the very warm SST

anomalies off the US East Coast. The first tropical cyclone making landfall along

the SE Coast early in the season matches previous 5 year analog composite

with a similar SST pattern. The other years with an early season landfall along

the SE Coast were 2015, 2014, 2012, 1996, and 1991. Whether we see further

landfalls along the East Coast like some of the years or activity remaining just

offshore to the east remains to be seen. But the area north of 20N in the Atlantic

looks like it will be active like the 5 analog years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Morris]

You're always here with the good stuff.

[bluewave]

You're always here with the good stuff.

 

Thanks very much for the compliment. I figured the NYC Metro posters would like a discussion and observations thread

focusing in on potential in the Atlantic north of 20N that we have seen in recent years.

[uncle W]

I was in Florida in 1996 when a hurricane was forecast to hit there but turned north and went over NYC...it was weak but a direct hit...

[Jason WX]

Interesting article. NYC is placed 2nd for storm surge risk. Miami is first  http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2016/06/01/410357.htm

[NJwx85]

Interesting article. NYC is placed 2nd for storm surge risk. Miami is first  http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2016/06/01/410357.htm

Probably because a lot of lower Manhattan, Queens and Brooklyn sit below sea level.

[Jason WX]

Coastal waters off of NJ and LI have been warming rapidly

[TriPol]

Not even June 9 and we're already at C. Fascinating.

[bluewave]

Not even June 9 and we're already at C. Fascinating.

 

Alex forming in January made the difference so we could get to C so early.

 

Colin is the earliest third tropical storm to form on record in the Atlantic basin.hurricanes.gov #Colin pic.twitter.com/8HLixceB4P

 

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Alex forming in January made the difference so we could get to C so early.

Colin is the earliest third tropical storm to form on record in the Atlantic basin.hurricanes.gov #Colin pic.twitter.com/8HLixceB4P

track.gif

I doubt any of theses storms would have been counted in the pre-satellite era

[bluewave]

I doubt any of theses storms would have been counted in the pre-satellite era

 

Bonnie and Colin probably would have since they impacted land.

But maybe way back in time Alex would just have been a very

potent January ocean storm in a ships log.

[Jason WX]

New NMME analogs show a above normal track frequency near the east coast.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

New NMME analogs show a above normal track frequency near the east coast.

Let's see if we can score another came before Florida does... That would be crazy!!

[Jason WX]

Interesting

[NJwx85]

We now have TS Fiona. Small cyclone with only a 15 mi wind radius. Expected to steadily strengthen over the next seven days while gradually heading WNW. 12z GFS brings it near Bermuda in about 14 days so not a definitive recurver yet.

[the ghost of leroy]

if it's near bermuda at day 14 the overwhelming probability is recurve

[NJwx85]

11 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

if it's near bermuda at day 14 the overwhelming probability is recurve

True but a lot can happen in the next two weeks. The models have been severely underestimating the WAR ridge. 

[the ghost of leroy]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

True but a lot can happen in the next two weeks. The models have been severely underestimating the WAR ridge. 

it's above 15N and not even to 40W yet.  i dont have all the stats in front of me but you could probably count on one hand the number of storms that made it across from that far N and E.  not saying it can't happen, just that it won't.

 

 

 

 

[the ghost of leroy]

crap.  just realized i am posting in the NYC subforum.  lol

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

it's above 15N and not even to 40W yet.  i dont have all the stats in front of me but you could probably count on one hand the number of storms that made it across from that far N and E.  not saying it can't happen, just that it won't.

 

 

 

 

Understood. I think something like 85% of all CV storms that develop East of 50W harmlessly recurve OTS. 

[the ghost of leroy]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Understood. I think something like 85% of all CV storms that develop East of 50W harmlessly recurve OTS. 

yup.  the odds get even lower when you factor in latitude.

[BxEngine]

14 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

crap.  just realized i am posting in the NYC subforum.  lol

Get out my hood yo

[tdp146]

ggem and GFS starting to show some activity late month along the eastern seaboard. Right on time

[mob1]

The 06Z GFS has some eye candy in the super long range. 

[MJO812]

Panhandle crusher on the GFS

[CIK62]

Seem like from around 8/30 to 9/02 anyone from New Orleans to NYC to Bermuda  will have to be on guard.    Storms are bouncing around like basketballs from run to run and model to model, with the EURO the least threatening and the GFS unable to decide where to put the thing.    Check out the nutty CMC at hour 150 from the 12Z run, it has four systems showing!

[Jason WX]

If 99L tracks north of Hispaniola it's game on for development.

[NEG NAO]

[Jason WX]

12z EURO has 99L much stronger than past runs. could be a trend.

[Jason WX]

The ridge to the N needs to move  for this to come north