bluewave Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Early indications are that the Atlantic will see another active tropical cyclone season north of 20N. This has been a familiar theme in recent years with the very warm SST anomalies off the US East Coast. The first tropical cyclone making landfall along the SE Coast early in the season matches previous 5 year analog composite with a similar SST pattern. The other years with an early season landfall along the SE Coast were 2015, 2014, 2012, 1996, and 1991. Whether we see further landfalls along the East Coast like some of the years or activity remaining just offshore to the east remains to be seen. But the area north of 20N in the Atlantic looks like it will be active like the 5 analog years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 You're always here with the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 31, 2016 Author Share Posted May 31, 2016 You're always here with the good stuff. Thanks very much for the compliment. I figured the NYC Metro posters would like a discussion and observations thread focusing in on potential in the Atlantic north of 20N that we have seen in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 I was in Florida in 1996 when a hurricane was forecast to hit there but turned north and went over NYC...it was weak but a direct hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Interesting article. NYC is placed 2nd for storm surge risk. Miami is first http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2016/06/01/410357.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Interesting article. NYC is placed 2nd for storm surge risk. Miami is first http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2016/06/01/410357.htm Probably because a lot of lower Manhattan, Queens and Brooklyn sit below sea level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Coastal waters off of NJ and LI have been warming rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Not even June 9 and we're already at C. Fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 6, 2016 Author Share Posted June 6, 2016 Not even June 9 and we're already at C. Fascinating. Alex forming in January made the difference so we could get to C so early. Colin is the earliest third tropical storm to form on record in the Atlantic basin.hurricanes.gov #Colin pic.twitter.com/8HLixceB4P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Alex forming in January made the difference so we could get to C so early. Colin is the earliest third tropical storm to form on record in the Atlantic basin.hurricanes.gov #Colin pic.twitter.com/8HLixceB4P track.gif I doubt any of theses storms would have been counted in the pre-satellite era Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 6, 2016 Author Share Posted June 6, 2016 I doubt any of theses storms would have been counted in the pre-satellite era Bonnie and Colin probably would have since they impacted land. But maybe way back in time Alex would just have been a very potent January ocean storm in a ships log. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 New NMME analogs show a above normal track frequency near the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 New NMME analogs show a above normal track frequency near the east coast. Let's see if we can score another came before Florida does... That would be crazy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 We now have TS Fiona. Small cyclone with only a 15 mi wind radius. Expected to steadily strengthen over the next seven days while gradually heading WNW. 12z GFS brings it near Bermuda in about 14 days so not a definitive recurver yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 if it's near bermuda at day 14 the overwhelming probability is recurve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 11 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: if it's near bermuda at day 14 the overwhelming probability is recurve True but a lot can happen in the next two weeks. The models have been severely underestimating the WAR ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: True but a lot can happen in the next two weeks. The models have been severely underestimating the WAR ridge. it's above 15N and not even to 40W yet. i dont have all the stats in front of me but you could probably count on one hand the number of storms that made it across from that far N and E. not saying it can't happen, just that it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 crap. just realized i am posting in the NYC subforum. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 4 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: it's above 15N and not even to 40W yet. i dont have all the stats in front of me but you could probably count on one hand the number of storms that made it across from that far N and E. not saying it can't happen, just that it won't. Understood. I think something like 85% of all CV storms that develop East of 50W harmlessly recurve OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: Understood. I think something like 85% of all CV storms that develop East of 50W harmlessly recurve OTS. yup. the odds get even lower when you factor in latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 14 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: crap. just realized i am posting in the NYC subforum. lol Get out my hood yo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 ggem and GFS starting to show some activity late month along the eastern seaboard. Right on time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 The 06Z GFS has some eye candy in the super long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 Panhandle crusher on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 Seem like from around 8/30 to 9/02 anyone from New Orleans to NYC to Bermuda will have to be on guard. Storms are bouncing around like basketballs from run to run and model to model, with the EURO the least threatening and the GFS unable to decide where to put the thing. Check out the nutty CMC at hour 150 from the 12Z run, it has four systems showing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 If 99L tracks north of Hispaniola it's game on for development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 12z EURO has 99L much stronger than past runs. could be a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 The ridge to the N needs to move for this to come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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