OceanStWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 It should be lovely in the NW upslope regions... don't want to live there late next week. The GFS has the NW flow regions taking the brunt of the below normal departures from daytime clouds/showery/breezy conditions. gfs_T2ma_neus_21.png Airmass is cold enough the p-type product even has a small spec of blue over the High Peaks of the Adirondacks... flurries for Whiteface? gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19.png I'm pretty sure our long term desk tossed in some weenie flakes for MWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I'm pretty sure our long term desk tossed in some weenie flakes for MWN.I was going to say it's almost a lock that their elevation will see flakes to record a trace.These air masses in summer months are when MWN really separates itself from the other northeast High Peaks by having that extra 1-2kft elevation which can allow for flakes pretty much at any time of year with a solid cold shot. It's the difference between 35-40F rain showers at 4-5kft and 30-32F snow showers at 6,200ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 You know, honestly, if we escape any meaningful torch in June, Summer's back is broken as far as I'm concerned. I expect some high heat in July and August so it's all good. Glad I held off on the install, there have been many delightful evenings, including tonight, with windows open and fans blowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Nice backing off today on cool shot days 8-10 Came back. Higher el crying for mama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Endless Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Endless Spring? Maybe summer will be the mirror image of the winter. Will have two days of insane heat and the rest utterly forgettable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Maybe summer will be the mirror image of the winter. Will have two days of insane heat and the rest utterly forgettable. I'm thinking I have already had my yearly high temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Endless Spring? You see the ens as we head twds mid month and beyond.? She coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 She's on hold. It "could" come after 20th but we need a kick in the PNA pants to roll that heat ridge east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 She's on hold. It "could" come after 20th but we need a kick in the PNA pants to roll that heat ridge east. Posts like yours earlier about endless spring leads to people thinking another cool summer with no heat is coming..as you can see by their posts. They have no idea what's coming this summer if that's the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Where is this heat that has been advertised since April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Let's assume a cool 3-5 day period means no heat this summer and a chilly summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Tippy, are you in the Summer of '09 repeat camp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Tippy, are you in the Summer of '09 repeat camp? I don't recall that entire summer, but my vacation that year was miserable. Took a week vacation to lake arrowhead in Maine at the end of June. It was sunny for the first day or so and then it rained every single day the rest of the trip. Not only that, it got pretty cold a few of the nights. Not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Let's assume a cool 3-5 day period means no heat this summer and a chilly summer. It bothers you so much haha. You do know most of us expect it to get hot at some point in the summer right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 It bothers you so much haha. You do know most of us expect it to get hot at some point in the summer right? Apparently some mets don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted June 5, 2016 Author Share Posted June 5, 2016 Posts like yours earlier about endless spring leads to people thinking another cool summer with no heat is coming..as you can see by their posts. They have no idea what's coming this summer if that's the case I think you mean posts like yours lead people to think that we'll have endless days of heat and high humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 heh... I think a healthy base-line philosophy to maintain for operational Meteorology is not to be persuaded on the cool side with any wanton willingness that exceeds the same "desire" to see thing on the warm side. ..I know that is hard. You just sort of have to not care what happens, and then see it completely evenly. Kevin is not the person to adopt that modus operendi. Neither are those that mock him. I find it fascinating, because those that have a sort of knee-jerk tendency to nae-say summer (because nice warm weather seems to actually cause them pain...), are thus given perfect operating position, where the actual mocking of Kevin is their venting for their loss-of-winter frustration. it offers a nice logical explanation for why those individuals continue to cackle against his post content - as if the definition of insanity doesn't actually apply? - constantly doing the same thing and expecting a different result ?? ... no. they keep doing it because they are not expecting anything. they just "need" that vent, so making fun of a summer zealot does the trick. but that is no defense of irresponsible warm mongering, either. that's eye-rollin' annoyance, too. heh, this is a social media.. it's not much of "Meteorological" anything - that's loosely the motivator. Back when this was eastern, the "climate" of the use was more ridged in that regard. anyway, yesterday, I was thinking the latter half of the month would turn hot. There was multi-day progs for the mass fields transitioning toward supporting more subtropical ridging over mid latitudes of N/A... That signal is still there, but it's not quite carrying the same panache. Meanwhile, the operational runs continue to enable denial by creating a 1993-1994 +NAO so massive that it backs heights low from the NE. this summer - so far - can't win. it's just been a comical exercise in watching the atmosphere invent reasons not to raise heights over the Delmarva lat/lon. But, ...I tell ya ... it kind of reminds me of the polar opposite of that 2014-2015 early winter... you could tell the season was playing with dad's gun, because these uber cold masses of air would occasionally swipe dryly by ...moving out in the nick of time to avoid storm-consequences of impending warm ups ... a fellow Met and I were discussing that back whence and wondering if that cold periodicity ever altered timing-wise ...and well, we all know what happened in Feb. Maybe this is the same going the other way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I hope the rain holds together as it is coming through CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowedin Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Hmm, could we see a repeat of the summer of 2014? Cool (relatively speaking) and dry (hopefully not)? At least that was the case here which maybe should've been a hint that the next winter was going to be insane. Or maybe there is no connection at all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 No connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Well well well... now that the operational Euro has that thing inside of D4.5 I am less inclined to question a -4 SD air mass into southern Ontario.. or whatever the hell that is but geezus, that's easily Lake effect cold rain mixing with grapple and cat paws if it were October. It would take one hell of a correction to get that to be wrong for a model that typically does not need to waver much at < D4.5. One clue also that adds some credence is that the cooling event is well anchored with large scale full latitude trough translation. Not dependent upon verification of small scaled permutations to verify the overall result. That's an exceptional cold anomaly entering a higher confidence interval. Typically ...as I've hammered time and time again, the Euro ends up having to back off going entering the early part of the middle range, but this appears to be passing that test. Dimes to donuts we can be certain that come October there will NOT be a Lake effect cold rain mixing with grapple and cats paws ... we'll have to remember last June to get it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Well well well... now that the operational Euro has that thing inside of D4.5 I am less inclined to question a -4 SD air mass into southern Ontario.. or whatever the hell that is but geezus, that's easily Lake effect cold rain mixing with grapple and cat paws if it were October. It would take one hell of a correction to get that to be wrong for a model that typically does not need to waver much at < D4.5. One clue also that adds some credence is that the cooling event is well anchored with large scale full latitude trough translation. Not dependent upon verification of small scaled permutations to verify the overall result. That's an exceptional cold anomaly entering a higher confidence interval. Typically ...as I've hammered time and time again, the Euro ends up having to back off going entering the early part of the middle range, but this appears to be passing that test. Dimes to donuts we can be certain that come October there will NOT be a Lake effect cold rain mixing with grapple and cats paws ... we'll have to remember last June to get it! Yeah lol the Euro has that core of -2C H85 air pushing into N.NY and NNE... that's a chilly air mass for June 9th even if for only a day. BTV mentioned small hail or graupel possible with orographic showers and freezing levels near 4,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Yeah lol the Euro has that core of -2C H85 air pushing into N.NY and NNE... that's a chilly air mass for June 9th even if for only a day. BTV mentioned small hail or graupel possible with orographic showers and freezing levels near 4,000ft. f96.gif yeah, I'm no expert with "upsloping" - just can recognize that pulling saturable air up causes clouds and rain.... having said that, with the sun being what it is at this time of year,. Hmm. I could see that being snow on the summits in October, but silver hail and snowballs mixed in intense cores in May - otherwise just cold chilly showers in this latter sense. don't know about June though... holy schit. I've never personally seen snow in June. I have in May. never June. If I were neurotic and had the free time, I might drive up there just for morbid hope. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 yeah, I'm no expert with "upsloping" - just can recognize that pulling saturable air up causes clouds and rain.... having said that, with the sun being what it is at this time of year,. Hmm. I could see that being snow on the summits in October, but silver hail and snowballs mixed in intense cores in May - otherwise just cold chilly showers in this latter sense. don't know about June though... holy schit. I've never personally seen snow in June. I have in May. never June. If I were neurotic and had the free time, I might drive up there just for morbid hope. haha Up on the rockpile they typically get around 1 measurable snowfall event per June, never more than the 6 in 1988. Mostly recently 2013 had 3 such events, totaling 0.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 step 1 in Sonoran heat release ... the SW builds heat/bakes Exc Heat up over the region. yeah models haven't really given up on the release event that I was mentioned a couple days ago. they just shunt it S of us... quite the gradient between Ontario and the TV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Some severe potential on Tuesday if the NAM/SREF CAPE forecast is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Some severe potential on Tuesday if the NAM/SREF CAPE forecast is right. YAAAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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