powderfreak Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 The advertised chilly pattern first 10 days of June..is turning into a slightly AN to above pattern..with signs of heat building in after day 10 12z GFS is real warm next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 12z GFS is real warm next week: image.gif this is not in defense of Kevin .. .but I was also mentioning this a while ago. The GFS has been over zealous since this warm season was a zygote months ago, at bringing too much cold hammers. That said, I do think it cools down or in the least, a transient trough through the area prior to ...whatever warming pattern does materialize as currently signaled in the "Helen-Telers" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 12z GFS is real warm next week: image.gif Yeah that will verify. You're better than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Euro too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 All tossed. As we've seen the last few years. These faux cold blasts on day 8-10 op models always warm each run closing in. No difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 ...and this is what is said in the winter: All tossed. As we've seen the last few years. These faux warm blasts on day 8-10 op models always cool each run closing in. No difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 All tossed. As we've seen the last few years. These faux cold blasts on day 8-10 op models always warm each run closing in. No differenceDay 8-10?It's like day 5-6. I think mid-30s might be possible at the Picnic Tables. Not sure what you are worried about, you would still be in the 60s. Most spots last week following that backdoor front were in the 40s and 50s while they had near record highs in the 70s at the Picnic Tables. H85 does not equal surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 ...and this is what is said in the winter: ah hahaha - yup! annnywho... the other day you asked me what a "Sonoran Release" was - I meant to reply but blah blah here we are.. Don't bite into that too hard. You won't find it formally written anywhere, just un-officially referenced here. It's some invented phrase in an AFD i read ages ago ..like really some time in the 1990s so 20 years... It was ALB or TAN's, and it was something that resonated with me. I have studied the "intent" of that many times and summers since and have found it has merit. There are a couple of particular synoptic markers in the modeled atmosphere that are required - sort of a check list. I've posted annotated charts in the past; basically... you get trapped multi-diurnal air in the desert SW (between Phx -NM and W. TX) and than, the pattern changes and that super heated process air gets ejected out of the SW and streams along the NW periphery of subtropical high. ...usually one that is just developing. I have analyzed top tier heat waves going back decades and all of them had at least incorporated some form of a sudden SW U.S. trapped air release into them. Sonoran is just a rough geographical reference to/for an origin. The Sororan region it's self is mostly on the western end of said geographical area. At some point, it's probably worth it to organize and paper it - I just haven't the inclination at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Day 8-10? It's like day 5-6. I think mid-30s might be possible at the Picnic Tables. Not sure what you are worried about, you would still be in the 60s. Most spots last week following that backdoor front were in the 40s and 50s while they had near record highs in the 70s at the Picnic Tables. H85 does not equal surface. my point was it will dramatically warm as we get closer. it always does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Tip are you buying the EURO and EPS with mega SE Canada trough and 0-2 850's days 8-10?? Hope it is too amped!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 my point was it will dramatically warm as we get closer. it always does Man you are always so certain of given outcomes. So lets say the model mean right now is +4C H85 over you at some point... what's "dramatically" warming than that? You think the cold shot stops around +10C for you? Lets just quantify what you are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Man you are always so certain of given outcomes. So lets say the model mean right now is +4C H85 over you at some point... what's "dramatically" warming than that? You think the cold shot stops around +10C for you? Lets just quantify what you are saying. Instead of 50's for highs like it shows..it will be in the 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Instead of 50's for highs like it shows..it will be in the 70's Well lets also be clear that it doesn't show 50s for highs any day for CT. This is the time frame as that initial GFS map I posted with H85 temps of 0C for the northern half of New England. Looks like 63F right over Tolland for 18z Thursday. You've got NW flow so its going to be colder in the upslope regions and warmer in the downslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Well lets also be clear that it doesn't show 50s for highs any day for CT. This is the time frame as that initial GFS map I posted with H85 temps of 0C for the northern half of New England. Looks like 63F right over Tolland for 18z Thursday. gfs_T2m_neus_26.png I'll take the over on that if it's not raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 I'll take the over on that if it's not raining I know, you'd take the over if it was showing 80F for a high. Just wanted to put some facts out there before BDL has a high of 70F and its spun that this is a lot warmer than those models showing 50F had. The GFS would have highs in the upper 60s at the tarmac and mid-60s hills on the coldest day in CT it looks like on Tropical Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Tip are you buying the EURO and EPS with mega SE Canada trough and 0-2 850's days 8-10?? Hope it is too amped!! Amplitude? no ... not really. Spatial-temporal occurrence? yep! absolutely ... In short, I believe we deal with substantial troughing at some variant less than actually having the Euro sell snowing in the hill tops over BTV in June between now and circa the 13th... After that intrigues me. It probably won't catch much discussion on here for another week or so ...until such time as the signal gets more confident, but there is a fairly robust teleconnector signal for heat mid month + ...I think other's may have mentioned that in their own accords recently but this is the first time imho got on the same page. It would be sooner if we were dumb enough to believe the GGEM and a few ensembles, but usually they'll rush something like this so goes to figure - really ... no one should want what the GGEM is offering, if one is responsible and sane. ... now ... we know that Kevin is not, and will egg it on ... ; this is in no way intended to offer support of his sociopathic dystopian heat horror. any such 'apparent' collateral implication of said signal is purely a function of dumb f coincidental luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 I'll take the over on that if it's not raining Torch cancel, dew the dewless coc a style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Torch cancel, dew the dewless coc a styleIf you ignore 85-90 tomorrow and 20th and on furnace .. Sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 If you ignore 85-90 tomorrow and 20th and on furnace .. Sure You must be mistaken or spinning... the forecast for your area calls for a high near 80F. Zone forecast says low 80s...which agrees with model data. But lets call it 85-90F, that sounds better right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 You must be mistaken or spinning... the forecast for your area calls for a high near 80F. Zone forecast says low 80s...which agrees with model data. But lets call it 85-90F, that sounds better right? Tolland.jpg Ryans station has 88 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Ryans station has 88 tomorrow For you? Wow that seems warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 For you? Wow that seems warm.For interior CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 For you? Wow that seems warm. 88 BDL, 83 Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Ryans station has 88 tomorrow Wow..hot glad I don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 We fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Pretty anomalous pattern starting Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Looks like today will be a couple degrees AN COC day (p/c is for 79*). Drink in the summer today--it's the only summer we've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Pretty anomalous pattern starting Wednesday. Yup, Greater implications of -NAO/-AO trends than originally thought. Per an ensemble approach, persistence of ridging across W Europe into Greenland buckles the upstream pattern. Looking at prolonged setup of favorable troughing with H5 heights 1 to 2 standard deviations below average for early June over the NE CONUS validating the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day Climate Prediction Outlooks of cooler, unsettled weather averaged over the aforementioned timeframes. Such outcomes begin to emerge Sunday, prevailing through the remainder of the long term forecast period through next weekend the details of which are outlined below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Any best guesses for the start time for tomorrow's rain in GC? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 For interior CT lol whatever that means. Isn't his forecast for HFD proper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.