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June Pattern Discussion


CapturedNature

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it's interesting ...  

 

it's as though there are two disparate pattern simultaneously taking place.   one has a permanent +PNA look locked and immovable; the other is situated above roughly the 40th parallel where there is an usually late N-stream that can't stop, that is whipping around like an unattended fire hose spraying troughs and ridges over top. 

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Through 6/24-June 2016

BOS: +0.5

BDL: +0.4

PVD: +0.9

ORH: +0.1

 

Will and I were discussing this a month or so ago ... it's about what we'd expect of a "normal" pattern.   And, not merely because it is < 1.0 degree F; rather, because it is modest in decimals, warm ...which per month, is about on par with the background GW signal. 

 

The problem with using the 30 year mean is that it is reduced to worse approximations than the standard fuzziness of the limitation in sample set size.  The reason why is because the mean doesn't intrinsically say anything about the slope of climate flux. 

 

Between 1951 and 1980 the world was close to 57.2 on average, and it was less in 1951 than it was in 1980, too. Moving forward several decades in time to 2015, infamously the hottest year on record, the G-T had warmed a further full degree C .. 58 and change.    

 

Come to think of it... it's amazing how much sea level rise and glacial loss has happened as a result of 1 C.. Imagine if century talk about +3 C transpires.. 

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Will and I were discussing this a month or so ago ... it's about what we'd expect of a "normal" pattern. And, not merely because it is < 1.0 degree F; rather, because it is modest in decimals, warm ...which per month, is about on par with the background GW signal.

The problem with using the 30 year mean is that it is reduced to worse approximations than the standard fuzziness of the limitation in sample set size. The reason why is because the mean doesn't intrinsically say anything about the slope of climate flux.

Between 1951 and 1980 the world was close to 57.2 on average, and it was less in 1951 than it was in 1980, too. Moving forward several decades in time to 2015, infamously the hottest year on record, the G-T had warmed a further full degree C .. 58 and change.

Come to think of it... it's amazing how much sea level rise and glacial loss has happened as a result of 1 C.. Imagine if century talk about +3 C transpires..

Meh.

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Through 6/24-June 2016

BOS: +0.5

BDL: +0.4

PVD: +0.9

ORH: +0.1

 

Up in the central and northern Greens we've got:

 

MVL...-1.8

MPV...-2.2

1V4...-2.5

BTV...+1.1

 

One of the more interesting months for departures up this way...getting larger departures is tougher in the summer so the -2 stuff is decently negative (1V4 has a period of record back to the 1800s).  Then there's BTV and the Champlain Valley which can't radiate with the nocturnal jet that develops between the Adirondacks and Greens.

 

Can't help but chuckle at the weenie cold pocket for ORH-TOL.  Somewhere Kev is throwing his laptop at the wall as he stands up from the couch with no TP stuck to him.

 

post-352-0-50544300-1466903544_thumb.png

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Both the 12z GFS and EURO argue for a period of warmer and possibly more humid weather just after the July 4th trough. 

 

Looks like there's an opening there as that trough lifts out and before the next northern stream shortwave approaches from the southern Canadian Plains for a couple day period of +15C to +20C H85 temps.

 

Day 10 progs for both GFS and ECMWF.

 

post-352-0-17805500-1466977378_thumb.gif

 

As that trough lifts we'd get a couple days of hotter probably moist weather (relatively speaking).

 

post-352-0-40886300-1466977435_thumb.gif

 

 

Both models do show a fairly robust northern stream shortwave though that would bring another trough into the Great Lakes and Northeast after a couple days of hotter weather.  Even the GFS straight out to Day 15 is showing troughing in the means over us with some brief periods of warmer weather breaking off from the center of the nation.

 

Chamber of Commerce high pressure systems just keep building in.

 

post-352-0-11058200-1466977689_thumb.gif

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One of the more interesting months for departures up this way...getting larger departures is tougher in the summer so the -2 stuff is decently negative (1V4 has a period of record back to the 1800s).  Then there's BTV and the Champlain Valley which can't radiate with the nocturnal jet that develops between the Adirondacks and Greens.

 

Can't help but chuckle at the weenie cold pocket for ORH-TOL.  Somewhere Kev is throwing his laptop at the wall as he stands up from the couch with no TP stuck to him.

 

attachicon.gifMonthTDeptNRCC.png

 

That nice blotch of blue in NW Maine probably represents only 3 locations - Jackman, Greenville, and Pittston Farm.  I'm about 2F below my 18-year avg, will finish between -1 and -2.

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That nice blotch of blue in NW Maine probably represents only 3 locations - Jackman, Greenville, and Pittston Farm.  I'm about 2F below my 18-year avg, will finish between -1 and -2.

 

It looks like I'll finish about a degree below my long term normal.  I'm in that "island" of below normal between ORH and northern CT.  The drier air has really made all the difference.  My average max has been just about normal (maybe a tenth below) but the mins have been been below the long term normal.  Nearly half were in the 40s.  I average 15 days every met summer below 50 and I'm already nearing that.  I usually get a few in July but mostly in June & August so we'll see what this year brings.  Off to a good start!

 

A little more precip would have made for a perfect month but you can't ask for better weather to start off met summer.

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