June Pattern Discussion

[easternsnowman]

Two straight weeks of almost perfect summer!

 

 

Good timing for a little family excursion to Falmouth. 

euro always love heat 5 days out!

[Michael05192016]

There will be no heat e.g. 95-100 in New England this summer. Let's just all face this fact already. Ran the GEFS and CFS and trough never leaves the northeast. Please see for yourself. I don't see anything in terms of heat or sig. severe for the next 3 weeks around here. I think any pattern modification later will be the result of the Atlantic Hurricane season picking up and also raising heights here if it ever happens. With the east coast trough pattern, and it possibly setting up near 80-90 longitudinal west axis, Long Island and New England face a slightly better than average danger of a direct strike this year between late August and early September. Just a opinion and feeling I have, that I wanted to share. What is everyone else thinking? I see the persistence of this pattern not really breaking until probably sometime late August!!!! I think the latest EURO weeklies are normal at best through early August, so persistence. SE Canada seems to never get hot this summer, so PHL/NYC corridor will be the cutoff for any real heat this July-August as I repeatly kept up. I expect only one big severe thunderstorm episode for this Jun-Aug timeframe for the NYC area. I would target sometime in early August guess.

[powderfreak]

never got hot here, yesterday was as close to hot as it got. Today was glorious

I just noticed IJD had 88F yesterday...that's higher than I would've thought. But "hot" is subjective. Our departures for the three day period were only like +3.5F (normal is 76/52 and we had like 86/48 type stuff).

[ApacheTrout]

There will be no heat e.g. 95-100 in New England this summer. Let's just all face this fact already. Ran the GEFS and CFS and trough never leaves the northeast. Please see for yourself. I don't see anything in terms of heat or sig. severe for the next 3 weeks around here. I think any pattern modification later will be the result of the Atlantic Hurricane season picking up and also raising heights here if it ever happens. With the east coast trough pattern, and it possibly setting up near 80-90 longitudinal west axis, Long Island and New England face a slightly better than average danger of a direct strike this year between late August and early September. Just a opinion and feeling I have, that I wanted to share. What is everyone else thinking? I see the persistence of this pattern not really breaking until probably sometime late August!!!! I think the latest EURO weeklies are normal at best through early August, so persistence. SE Canada seems to never get hot this summer, so PHL/NYC corridor will be the cutoff for any real heat this July-August as I repeatly kept up. I expect only one big severe thunderstorm episode for this Jun-Aug timeframe for the NYC area. I would target sometime in early August g

 

A couple of comments: 1) if you see the pattern breaking in late August, doesn't that leave time for 95-100F temps?  2) A prediction of no heat is just that, a prediction.  It's not a fact, so it's not something we have to face.  Otherwise, interesting ideas.  The summer doesn't have the feel of one that's dominated by long periods of hot weather, but my 'feel' is about as scientific as a weather stick.

[SJonesWX]

There will be no heat e.g. 95-100 in New England this summer. Let's just all face this fact already. Ran the GEFS and CFS and trough never leaves the northeast. Please see for yourself. I don't see anything in terms of heat or sig. severe for the next 3 weeks around here. I think any pattern modification later will be the result of the Atlantic Hurricane season picking up and also raising heights here if it ever happens. With the east coast trough pattern, and it possibly setting up near 80-90 longitudinal west axis, Long Island and New England face a slightly better than average danger of a direct strike this year between late August and early September. Just a opinion and feeling I have, that I wanted to share. What is everyone else thinking? I see the persistence of this pattern not really breaking until probably sometime late August!!!! I think the latest EURO weeklies are normal at best through early August, so persistence. SE Canada seems to never get hot this summer, so PHL/NYC corridor will be the cutoff for any real heat this July-August as I repeatly kept up. I expect only one big severe thunderstorm episode for this Jun-Aug timeframe for the NYC area. I would target sometime in early August guess.

i think you may have mentioned this before.

 

like 20 times already.

 

we get it, you don't think it is going to be hot.

[Isotherm]

00z ECMWF ensemble mean is a pretty toasty pattern once to July 4th and beyond. Lowering heights over AK with continued below normal heights over Arctic/Greenland, thus tightening the mid latitude jet and forcing a W-E zonal flow. Not a furnace 95+ regime (yet), but solidly above normal yields more frequent 90s in July.

[Michael05192016]

Then NYC area could get its rare but possible derecho pattern around the July 4th timeframe if the ensembles hold.

[powderfreak]

00z ECMWF ensemble mean is a pretty toasty pattern once to July 4th and beyond. Lowering heights over AK with continued below normal heights over Arctic/Greenland, thus tightening the mid latitude jet and forcing a W-E zonal flow. Not a furnace 95+ regime (yet), but solidly above normal yields more frequent 90s in July.

They looked pretty darn hot 10-14 days ago starting around the 20th...interesting they've pushed it to July 4th or so.

Climo would definitely help realizing a hot pattern in July though.

[Michael05192016]

NOT buying, or falling for this in July. It is going to cool down significantly as it gets closer. Just wait and see. I bet. The teleconnections with ++PDO and +PNA suggests no big heat getting here!!! NAO weakly positive is only hope for 60 and drizzle not locking in for July. I think a July 2014 repeat more than a 2000 repeat at this time. If anybody wants 594 500 MB heights or 582 1000-500 thickness.... This will not be your Summer. Sorry.

[IrishRob17]

NOT buying, or falling for this in July. It is going to cool down significantly as it gets closer. Just wait and see. I bet. The teleconnections with ++PDO and +PNA suggests no big heat getting here!!! NAO weekly positive is only hope for 60 and drizzle not locking in for July. I think a July 2014 repeat more than a 2000 repeat at this time.

So you're betting against any heat...

[Michael05192016]

Yes, very firmly too.

[IrishRob17]

Yes, very firmly too.

Interesting, I don't think anyone else picked up on that.

[Typhoon Tip]

heh. .. he's just seeking commiseration and those posts are fishing attempts;  that, and, hoping (probably) that someone or met will appease the angst by advocating a different result than the other-than-hot-humid summer feared to be our destiny.

 

oh well...cool summer.  who the f cares... grow up and get over it.  just like that smoldering tension crap that happens in the midst of of a warm winter - i couldn't care less so long as there are interesting things to focus on.  the irony being that it's not a cool summer at all, really - not so far.

 

banality is my foe - not perfect golfing weather, nor weather it is snowing or not for that matter.  but no one asked. just sayn'

 

which.. .by the way, what an epic stretch we just came through.  so i guess despite banality, in the absence of interesting things the next best is 82/40 weather.  winter banality is worse in my mind by a long, long personal measure.  29 for high, and 15 for a low for 45 straight days with no cyclones and dimmed sun behind cirrus is really other hobby seeking - excruciating.  

[Isotherm]

They looked pretty darn hot 10-14 days ago starting around the 20th...interesting they've pushed it to July 4th or so.

Climo would definitely help realizing a hot pattern in July though.

 

 

Yeah powder, they were too quick on the trigger. The global indicators and analogs didn't really support significant heat into the East for the month of June, so I tend to think the July changes are more legitimate, but we'll see. We haven't shifted completely into a Nina regime, but we're slowly transitioning. Easterly trade winds are forecast to intensity a bit over the next couple weeks with forcing over E IO/WPAC primarily, as well as increased low AAM orbit / GWO cycling. I think those geopotential heights over AK are a major key. Once we lower the heights in NW Canada/AK, while concurrently maintaining low heights near Greenland, it will be increasingly difficult to amplify deep troughs in the East; and we'll go more zonal overall. 

 

Slow evolution, but so far so good. June will be finishing slightly warmer than normal for most; pretty much in accordance with the best analogs IMO.

[Typhoon Tip]

i absolutely knew the NAM was going to do this... 

 

now, zippo - nooo rain for Thursday after runs of pummeling the area with needed 2" totals in QPF. 

 

seeing this solution now dip S far enough to spare what we really need (... ), it harkens to a suppressed -NAO look.  

 

you know the drill;  clipper comes along, looks good initially ... but since everyone operates on the -NAO falsehood of goodness, they buy into the middle range bomb it creates. only to have the NOT goodness of a dominating -NAO come to reality with a solution/evolution that corrects eerily similar to the way this thing has over the last 24 hours of cycles. 

 

lucky for summer enthusiasts... the NAO is forecast to be positive at both agencies for 6 to perhaps 10 days as we close out the month and head into the first week of July.   so despite teleconnector stats not meaning the same thing in summer... hedging one's bets toward rising heights over eastern longitudes of middle N/A is intuitively the most appealing course for least regret.

 

curiously .. the majority of runs keep trying to set up one of those deep layer Bahama blue patterns ... not sure how that fits in, but it would be above normal if that took place - so perhaps it would.  

[Ginx snewx]

I just noticed IJD had 88F yesterday...that's higher than I would've thought. But "hot" is subjective. Our departures for the three day period were only like +3.5F (normal is 76/52 and we had like 86/48 type stuff).

I am 15 miles from IJD and 500 ft higher was 84 here

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah powder, they were too quick on the trigger. The global indicators and analogs didn't really support significant heat into the East for the month of June, so I tend to think the July changes are more legitimate, but we'll see. We haven't shifted completely into a Nina regime, but we're slowly transitioning. Easterly trade winds are forecast to intensity a bit over the next couple weeks with forcing over E IO/WPAC primarily, as well as increased low AAM orbit / GWO cycling. I think those geopotential heights over AK are a major key. Once we lower the heights in NW Canada/AK, while concurrently maintaining low heights near Greenland, it will be increasingly difficult to amplify deep troughs in the East; and we'll go more zonal overall. 

 

Slow evolution, but so far so good. June will be finishing slightly warmer than normal for most; pretty much in accordance with the best analogs IMO.

The trend shown here in the GEFS is to lower heights in the N USA. I wouldn't doubt if this pattern persists for a while. Normal and no excessive heat, lots of fropas.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

i absolutely knew the NAM was going to do this... 

 

now, zippo - nooo rain for Thursday after runs of pummeling the area with needed 2" totals in QPF. 

 

seeing this solution now dip S far enough to spare what we really need (... ), it harkens to a suppressed -NAO look.  

 

you know the drill;  clipper comes along, looks good initially ... but since everyone operates on the -NAO falsehood of goodness, they buy into the middle range bomb it creates. only to have the NOT goodness of a dominating -NAO come to reality with a solution/evolution that corrects eerily similar to the way this thing has over the last 24 hours of cycles. 

 

lucky for summer enthusiasts... the NAO is forecast to be positive at both agencies for 6 to perhaps 10 days as we close out the month and head into the first week of July.   so despite teleconnector stats not meaning the same thing in summer... hedging one's bets toward rising heights over eastern longitudes of middle N/A is intuitively the most appealing course for least regret.

 

curiously .. the majority of runs keep trying to set up one of those deep layer Bahama blue patterns ... not sure how that fits in, but it would be above normal if that took place - so perhaps it would.  

 

yet most guidance still gets us into thick enough cloud cover that temps get stuck in the mid 60's for most.   if we aren't going to get any rain out of this...I'm pulling for the RGEM. it keeps everything far enough south to give us a decent day.

[powderfreak]

I am 15 miles from IJD and 500 ft higher was 84 here

Yeah I know, just the nearest ASOS station. Mid-80s is plenty hot this year compared to the rest lol.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah I know, just the nearest ASOS station. Mid-80s is plenty hot this year compared to the rest lol.

meh, it snowed again this morning at MWN

https://www.instagram.com/p/BG-Ktc3Fh1y/

[Typhoon Tip]

wow - this is a popular thread!  ahaha

 

yeah .. it's interesting how the tele's would really support heat finally getting into the E more than mere transient short duration synoptic pulses... yet, the operational runs across the board are all out of phase with their own ensemble mean - less so in the Euro camp.  definitely so in the GEFs vs GFS though..  

 

less in terms of actual features, but more in the sense of 'tenor' and 'trend' those two 'emergent' characteristics of the operaitonal runs are and have been out of phase with the derivatives.  buuut, the rise in the NAO is just beginning if the forecast timing is correct, so ...it's not impossible that if the mean has merit, the operational GFS will correct toward more eastern ridging.  

 

not happened yet - 

[78Blizzard]

Perhaps that slow moving TC in the Gulf shown at day 11 on the 18z GFS will change the pattern, if it actually forms.  Right now, though, it's a fantasy.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Man, there is just no solid indication of significant rain for NE on the models the next 7-10 days.

[weathafella]

Hard to argue with the spectacular start to summer. We do need more water though.

[CT Valley Snowman]

In honor of the notorious DIT.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Nice trough in the means showing up on the 4th of July weekend, with our luck the skies will start opening up just in time for the weekend festivities.

[Typhoon Tip]

Man, there is just no solid indication of significant rain for NE on the models the next 7-10 days.

 

haul in the reigns on that assessment (pun intended...) ...  

 

Day 4.5-ish thru D6 on most operational guidance have a slow moving front in the area and QPF aplenty...  Granted, 'dry does seem to beget dry' in this busines, still...the statement of 'no indication' isn't quite right.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Meh on the Drought Monitor - 

 

Know what that big "S" means up there ?  ...it means, one lucky thunderstorm complex away from that going poof -

[powderfreak]

Meh on the Drought Monitor -

Know what that big "S" means up there ? ...it means, one lucky thunderstorm complex away from that going poof -

I take the "S" to mean you may not have to cut your lawn as frequently as you do some other summers.

[moneypitmike]

I take the "S" to mean you may not have to cut your lawn as frequently as you do some other summers.

Sums it up.